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2020 Emmys Predictions (Part 7)

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  • Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203273820

    Speaking about submissions, is time for Best Actress in Drama Update (The bloodbath of the year, only two actresses are locks for nomination):

    1. Olivia Colman – support from SAG, Golden Globe win as advertising, praised from critics. She has received some serious backlash from the fandom, I do not see her winning, but we discussing the nomination phase and she is a lock for that.
    2. Elisabeth Moss – support from SAG, praise from critics, adoration from the fandom, good season. Her performance can be describe only as iconic and legendary.
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    3. Jennifer Aniston – I underestimated her due to the bad reviews (I have yet to check the show for myself), but two months later they seem as irrelevant as those for Joker and Bohemian Rhapsody, the industry and the fandom adores all of them and this is what matters. It got hugely popular as well, it managed to get 8.4 score at IMDB and a 20 000 votes only in two month, those numbers are already bigger than those of Succession, A Very English Scandal, The Act, Escape at Dannemora, Fosse/Verdon and The Good Fight. She has SAG support, praise from critics, fandom adoration. If she wins the SAG, I will move up her along with Moss and Colman.
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    4. Nicole Kidman – The SAG snub really hurt her, but her great performance, name recognition and HBO bias will help her made it.
    5. Jodie Comer – The only reason to put her fifth is that we have not seen her new season, a really bad season can disqualify everyone, Damian Lewis and Julianna Margulies could not recovered from seasons 3 and 6 of Homeland and The Good Wife, respectively.
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    .
    .
    6. Mandy Moore – Meaty performance and season, she finally made up the field and she is not going to disappear as easy. We are yet to see the second part of season 4, she just needs enough buzz. I put her in front of Linney, Wood and Oh, because we have seen the first part of her season.
    7. Laura Linney – If season 3 of Ozark is as good as the previous two, she is beloved enough by both the fandom and the industry to make it in.
    8. Evan Rachel Wood – It will be difficult for Wood, her character Dolores was seen as the worst part of season 2, I am sure that she was 6 and that she barely made it in front of Moore, Oh and Linney. She needs not only a strong season, but a much better storyline than that one she got in S2.
    9. Sandra Oh – Similar issue to Wood, we have seen that the entire industry agree with me and with the fandom, Eve had a weak season and Oh was overshadowed by Comer, she needs to do wonders in S3 to retain her place.
    10. Regina King – She is beloved, but in Miniseries/Limited, she have yet to prove herself here. She is not a real lead, from 9 episodes, she was the lead in four. Watchmen would not be enjoyable for people who are not familiar with the comic/movie. It is not an actors show. She was ignored by SAG.
    11. Viola Davis – The final season would be her narrative, but only a small part of the actors watch the show, this is why the show has made it only in the Guest categories outside of her. The category is stacked to have a sole nomination from a show.
    12. Claire Danes – After 5 consecutive nomination, she missed for season 6 and 7, her return would be complicated, but not impossible. Season 7 won WGA for Best Drama Episode and it was nominated for a DGA. Part of the industry still loves and supports the show. Mandy Patinkin is almost a lock and it will push her, but she really needs an amazingly good material and season.
    13. Sarah Snook – A borderline supporting role, HBO will not have more than 3 women here, Kidman, Wood and King are in front of her.
    14. Reese Witherspoon – Big Little Lies – Zero support for that season with the exception of part of the fandom. No SAG, no CC, no GG, no visible praise from critics. She was completely outshined by Kidman, Streep and Dern. She was supporting with almost no substantial material.
    15. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show – Zero support for that performance with the exception of a Golden Globe, which is irrelevant industry wise. Even the fandom of the show dislikes her character and performance. Completely outshined by Aniston. Poor Reese, will Kerry Washington outshine her as well? 🙁
    16. MJ Rodriguez – A sole CC nomination and a lot of love from the fandom, but she is still seens as newby with little experience who is doing a version of herself.
    17. Zendaya – A sole CC nomination and a lot of love from both the fandom and the critics. The teen thematic killed her, though. Even DiCaprio couldn’t help.
    18. Christine Baranski – CC and TCA voth have her back, the fandom also loves her, the issue here is that the fandom is small and quite, the industry clearly do not watch her show and it will not start now.

    How do you see it?

    Eden
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    #1203273872

    If I had to pick six nominees six months before the nominations are announced, I would say Colman, Comer, Aniston, Kidman, Moss and King.

    By the way, are the Emmys breaking the Drama Actor theory this year? I believe only Malek fits the ‘first or last season’ theory. I’m predicting Watchmen to be the only big new drama player this season and Irons could be a possibility if he goes lead (and if he gets nominated).

    Jays
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    Dec 15th, 2017
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    #1203273882

    If I had to pick six nominees six months before the nominations are announced, I would say Colman, Comer, Aniston, Kidman, Moss and King. By the way, are the Emmys breaking the Drama Actor theory this year? I believe only Malek fits the ‘first or last season’ theory. I’m predicting Watchmen to be the only big new drama player this season and Irons could be a possibility if he goes lead (and if he gets nominated).

    Yep, they are. Cox is winning, especially if Strong isn’t nominated.

    Luca
    Keymaster
    Joined:
    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203273922

    Speaking about submissions, is time for Best Actress in Drama Update (The bloodbath of the year, only two actresses are locks for nomination): 1. Olivia Colman – support from SAG, Golden Globe win as advertising, praised from critics. She has received some serious backlash from the fandom, I do not see her winning, but we discussing the nomination phase and she is a lock for that. 2. Elisabeth Moss – support from SAG, praise from critics, adoration from the fandom, good season. Her performance can be describe only as iconic and legendary. . . . 3. Jennifer Aniston – I underestimated her due to the bad reviews (I have yet to check the show for myself), but two months later they seem as irrelevant as those for Joker and Bohemian Rhapsody, the industry and the fandom adores all of them and this is what matters. It got hugely popular as well, it managed to get 8.4 score at IMDB and a 20 000 votes only in two month, those numbers are already bigger than those of Succession, A Very English Scandal, The Act, Escape at Dannemora, Fosse/Verdon and The Good Fight. She has SAG support, praise from critics, fandom adoration. If she wins the SAG, I will move up her along with Moss and Colman. . . . 4. Nicole Kidman – The SAG snub really hurt her, but her great performance, name recognition and HBO bias will help her made it. 5. Jodie Comer – The only reason to put her fifth is that we have not seen her new season, a really bad season can disqualify everyone, Damian Lewis and Julianna Margulies could not recovered from seasons 3 and 6 of Homeland and The Good Wife, respectively. . . . 6. Mandy Moore – Meaty performance and season, she finally made up the field and she is not going to disappear as easy. We are yet to see the second part of season 4, she just needs enough buzz. I put her in front of Linney, Wood and Oh, because we have seen the first part of her season. 7. Laura Linney – If season 3 of Ozark is as good as the previous two, she is beloved enough by both the fandom and the industry to make it in. 8. Evan Rachel Wood – It will be difficult for Wood, her character Dolores was seen as the worst part of season 2, I am sure that she was 6 and that she barely made it in front of Moore, Oh and Linney. She needs not only a strong season, but a much better storyline than that one she got in S2. 9. Sandra Oh – Similar issue to Wood, we have seen that the entire industry agree with me and with the fandom, Eve had a weak season and Oh was overshadowed by Comer, she needs to do wonders in S3 to retain her place. 10. Regina King – She is beloved, but in Miniseries/Limited, she have yet to prove herself here. She is not a real lead, from 9 episodes, she was the lead in four. Watchmen would not be enjoyable for people who are not familiar with the comic/movie. It is not an actors show. She was ignored by SAG. 11. Viola Davis – The final season would be her narrative, but only a small part of the actors watch the show, this is why the show has made it only in the Guest categories outside of her. The category is stacked to have a sole nomination from a show. 12. Claire Danes – After 5 consecutive nomination, she missed for season 6 and 7, her return would be complicated, but not impossible. Season 7 won WGA for Best Drama Episode and it was nominated for a DGA. Part of the industry still loves and supports the show. Mandy Patinkin is almost a lock and it will push her, but she really needs an amazingly good material and season. 13. Sarah Snook – A borderline supporting role, HBO will not have more than 3 women here, Kidman, Wood and King are in front of her. 14. Reese Witherspoon – Big Little Lies – Zero support for that season with the exception of part of the fandom. No SAG, no CC, no GG, no visible praise from critics. She was completely outshined by Kidman, Streep and Dern. She was supporting with almost no substantial material. 15. Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show – Zero support for that performance with the exception of a Golden Globe, which is irrelevant industry wise. Even the fandom of the show dislikes her character and performance. Completely outshined by Aniston. Poor Reese, will Kerry Washington outshine her as well? 🙁 16. MJ Rodriguez – A sole CC nomination and a lot of love from the fandom, but she is still seens as newby with little experience who is doing a version of herself. 17. Zendaya – A sole CC nomination and a lot of love from both the fandom and the critics. The teen thematic killed her, though. Even DiCaprio couldn’t help. 18. Christine Baranski – CC and TCA voth have her back, the fandom also loves her, the issue here is that the fandom is small and quite, the industry clearly do not watch her show and it will not start now. How do you see it?

    Some good points, though I think you’re way overestimating Moore. That SAG snub for the cast is bad news.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

    puck05
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    Sep 21st, 2019
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    #1203273928

    King would have way more chance if she is submitted as supporting. Honestly, it wouldn’t be a huge fraud.

    furbul
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    Sep 22nd, 2013
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    #1203273949

    By the way, are the Emmys breaking the Drama Actor theory this year? I believe only Malek fits the ‘first or last season’ theory. I’m predicting Watchmen to be the only big new drama player this season and Irons could be a possibility if he goes lead (and if he gets nominated).

    Would Menzies theoretically qualify for the theory? 🙂

    sofan
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    Oct 1st, 2016
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    #1203274297

    The fact that Reese Witherspoon has two amazing performances and she could get snubbed for both makes me really sad.

    I hope she commits category fraud or just submits one of them.

    Jays
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    #1203274326

    The fact that Reese Witherspoon has two amazing performances and she could get snubbed for both makes me really sad. I hope she commits category fraud or just submits one of them.

    She’ll probably (hopefully) get in for Little Fires Everywhere if it’s good.

    thatnerdgreg
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    Apr 24th, 2016
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    #1203274765

    If I had to pick six nominees six months before the nominations are announced, I would say Colman, Comer, Aniston, Kidman, Moss and King. By the way, are the Emmys breaking the Drama Actor theory this year? I believe only Malek fits the ‘first or last season’ theory. I’m predicting Watchmen to be the only big new drama player this season and Irons could be a possibility if he goes lead (and if he gets nominated).

    It’d be ridiculous if Irons went lead. He only appears for one sequence each in most of the episodes, and there’s only one episode where he’s present throughout the entirety. It’s definitely not a small role, as his sequences still give him a good amount to do, but he definitely shouldn’t be considered a lead. He’ll have a much stronger shot in supporting where he’d be a very deserving nominee. Tim Blake Nelson also deserves a nomination, and I can see either one, or both them making it in.

    I think Drama Actor will end up going to Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong, or Tobias Menzies, unless if some unseen contender delivers something truly incredible.

    jmon
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    #1203274777

    Will Watchmen compete in limited series?

    Heptapod
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    Feb 2nd, 2019
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    #1203274829

    Honestly, I don’t think Watchmen will compete in limited. With how much buzz and acclaim the show has generated, I doubt they’ll just leave it to one season, even if it does end up as some sort of anthology. And it’s already gotten so many nominations for drama categories that it would be foolish to switch to a category that is frankly more packed (Hill House, anyone?). And HBO has half a dozen limited contenders already so HBO could probably give it more and better promo in a category it only has a handful of other titles in.

    Allan Veríssimo
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    #1203274843

    So at the Emmys 2020, in Drama, HBO will have:

     

    Big Little Lies
    Euphoria
    Succession
    Watchmen
    Westworld

     

    Am I forgetting something? I suppose HBO will have to give more priority to some candidates than others.

    Heptapod
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    #1203274903

    I think that’s essentially the lineup, unless The Outsider switches back into drama. I don’t know if Perry Mason will premiere in time, and it seems like that’s a limited series, but there’s a possibility that that’ll end up in drama as well.

    However, I don’t see them giving any big campaign to Euphoria outside of Zendaya. I think it’ll naturally get into cinematography, but it just won’t resonate with awards voters.

    Big Little Lies and Succession are locks. Succession missing SAG was weird, but the Globes win is big, and it doesn’t seem to show any signs of slowing down in popularity or acclaim (VERY much the show of the moment). BLL hasn’t missed a step as of yet. It’s not really a guilds type of show so its losses there aren’t really worrying.

    If I were HBO, I’d be a little more worried about Westworld and Watchmen. Westworld seems pretty safe, and it’ll have a prime release date, but it’ll have to deliver well to avoid getting lost in the shuffle and win audiences back after a second season that, while not damaging the reputation of the show, did turn some viewers away. And while Watchmen’s doing great with guilds and critics, it doesn’t seem to be registering anywhere else, and it’s a LONG six months until voting, so it might just get forgotten.

    TLDR: Big Little Lies and Succession are definitely in. Westworld is shakier but I think it’ll still be safe. Watchmen is rapidly losing steam but it’s far from done just yet. Euphoria just won’t be an Emmys thing, and HBO probably knows that.

    Tyler
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    #1203275020

    Big Little Lies and Succession are locks.

    If I were HBO, I’d be a little more worried about Westworld and Watchmen.

    Westworld is sight unseen and honestly kinda a question mark overall so I can’t comment on that, but I think if I were HBO I would be much more worried about BLL then Watchmen. I don’t doubt BLL is getting nominated, but it is far from the player I’m sure they hoped it would be, considering it’s snub from WGA and DGA after its previous season won directing and probably would’ve won writing if Black Mirror didn’t emerge as such a beast in that branch. Also, even though it did get ensemble at SAG Kidman for sure should’ve gotten in, and Meryl was not a stretch as well. Watchmen missed the two most visible precursors but those bodies are also somewhat basic, and it has overperformed everywhere else. I don’t think its winning, but I do think its having a much better fall than any other drama besides the Crown and Succession. To me, those three seem like an easy top three as a result of the winter awards.

    Riley Chow
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    #1203275060

    Watchmen peaked late, so I disagree that it is losing steam.  I was quite surprised to see it overtake Succession in the top-ten critical aggregate and the margin would have been greater if not for the early lists publishing so early!

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