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2020 Emmys Predictions (Part 8)

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  • puck05
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    #1203348315

    If Dead To Me doesn’t come out in May, then comedy actress won’t be competitive at all. I how no idea who to put besides Brosnahan, O’Hara and Wever.

    boss
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    Better Things was always overshadowed by Atlanta, it would be shame that they would nominate Breeders (which feels similar to Better Things in content) but snub Better Things yet again.

    Luca
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    If Dead To Me doesn’t come out in May, then comedy actress won’t be competitive at all. I how no idea who to put besides Brosnahan, O’Hara and Wever.

    They finished filming in December. Netflix would be dumb not to air it in time! I would be so disappointed if it missed out on the chance to do well in this relatively weak field.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

    Luca
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    #1203348385

    I may not always be the biggest Killing Eve fan, but I do have to stan her:

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

    Heptapod
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    I think people are reading a little too much into Helena Bonham Carter’s situation. She’s been nominated pretty much everywhere, and getting a SAG nom as a supporting star is super significant. The fact that she didn’t win at the Globes does signify that she may be weaker than we’d previously thought, but six out of ten winners in that category in the past decade were limited series performers (including the last four winners), so I think that the voters just like limited performers better in that category now. Jean Smart at CC was a surprise, but that also really feels like a Critics’ Choice type of win, and I don’t think Smart has a showy enough performance or an interesting enough character to be a big threat at the Emmys. BLL seems basically guaranteed to walk away with zero trophies at this point, and I really don’t know who else could be a threat. Thandie Newton is a possibility, but unless she REALLY wows in Westworld 3, it doesn’t seem like the type of thing the Emmys will award twice. So while Newton’s not out of it yet, I’d still say Carter is comfortably in the lead here.

    methaddiction
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    Watch Julia Garner win again.

    forwardswill
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    I think people are reading a little too much into Helena Bonham Carter’s situation. She’s been nominated pretty much everywhere, and getting a SAG nom as a supporting star is super significant. The fact that she didn’t win at the Globes does signify that she may be weaker than we’d previously thought, but six out of ten winners in that category in the past decade were limited series performers (including the last four winners), so I think that the voters just like limited performers better in that category now. Jean Smart at CC was a surprise, but that also really feels like a Critics’ Choice type of win, and I don’t think Smart has a showy enough performance or an interesting enough character to be a big threat at the Emmys. BLL seems basically guaranteed to walk away with zero trophies at this point, and I really don’t know who else could be a threat. Thandie Newton is a possibility, but unless she REALLY wows in Westworld 3, it doesn’t seem like the type of thing the Emmys will award twice. So while Newton’s not out of it yet, I’d still say Carter is comfortably in the lead here.

    Thank you.

    She wouldn’t be my own personal choice but I just can’t see how Bonham Carter isn’t seen as the frontrunner with an assumed Streep/Dern vote split happening. Newton coming in with a performance on par with season one of Westworld is the only thing I see stopping it.

    Riley Chow
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    I do not see Helena Bonham Carter inciting passion.  The Emmys have been going for cool choices over veterans under the current voting system.  More acclaim would have given her a rooting factor.  John Lithgow has been around of course, but people had not seen him do what he did in The Crown, whereas I do not see what was fresh about Bonham Carter’s work. The Crown in general seems like it is not exciting people this season and she was barely in it anyway.

    Bridgian
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    The Outsider gives me Ozark vibes and Cynthia Erivo gives me Julia Garner vibes.

    thatnerdgreg
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    I do not see Helena Bonham Carter inciting passion. The Emmys have been going for cool choices over veterans under the current voting system. More acclaim would have given her a rooting factor. John Lithgow has been around of course, but people had not seen him do what he did in The Crown, whereas I do not see what was fresh about Bonham Carter’s work. The Crown in general seems like it is not exciting people this season and she was barely in it anyway.

    To be fair, Bonham Carter has been type cast as weirdos so long that her more restrained work in The Crown feels kind of new.

    nat1612
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    MBB & Thandie we’re both nominated for SAG and Ann Dowd who was bottom in the predictions won, so saying HBC is front runner just bc she was nominated at SAG doesn’t make sense. Guaranteed for a nomination yes, but not the win

    insomniac26
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    #1203349037

    I wish Kidding had more buzz. Jim Carrey is giving a hell of a performance and should win Comedy Actor going away for the second episode of the current season. He sings, he dances, he gets to be vulnerable, he interacts with puppets, and most of all, he’s funny.

    It’s a very idiosyncratic show, so I get why it didn’t make a splash last year, but it’s smoothed over its tonal wonkiness from last season while delivering material that most shows can’t touch.

    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    MBB & Thandie we’re both nominated for SAG and Ann Dowd who was bottom in the predictions won, so saying HBC is front runner just bc she was nominated at SAG doesn’t make sense. Guaranteed for a nomination yes, but not the win

    Unless Newton repeats or someone else another spring show breakouts. Then HBC is pretty much guaranteed an Emmy win based on SAG history.

    A supporting performance that nominated at SAG that’s also Emmy eligible has won every time this decade

    2012 – Jessica Lange won SAG with a supporting role and won Emmy in Limited Smith
    2013 – Maggie Smith won sag and lost Emmy Anna Gunn (SAG eligible but not nominated)
    2014 – Smith won SAG but lost Emmy to Anna Gunn (who was also nominated at SAG)
    2015 – Smith is SAG nominated but lost Emmy to Uzo Aduba, who won the SAG in the comedy.
    2016 – Smith nominated at SAG and won Emmy
    2017 – Newton, MBB & Ryder all SAG but lost to Dowd (an April premiere not SAG eligible)
    2018 – MBB, is SAG nominated but lost to Newton (an April premiere not SAG eligible)
    2019 – Julia Garner, is SAG nominated and won Emmy.

    With the exception of Anna Gunn beating Maggie Smith (which Gunn was the Best Series winner), every SAG nominated supporting performance was won the corresponding Emmy and only lost a spring season premiere.

    If HBC is going to lose, it’s going to be for to someone from a season not premiered yet.

    nat1612
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    #1203349108

    Unless Newton repeats or someone else another spring show breakouts. Then HBC is pretty much guaranteed an Emmy win based on SAG history.

    A supporting performance that nominated at SAG that’s also Emmy eligible has won every time this decade

    2012 – Jessica Lange won SAG with a supporting role and won Emmy in Limited Smith
    2013 – Maggie Smith won sag and lost Emmy Anna Gunn (SAG eligible but not nominated)
    2014 – Smith won SAG but lost Emmy to Anna Gunn (who was also nominated at SAG)
    2015 – Smith is SAG nominated but lost Emmy to Uzo Aduba, who won the SAG in the comedy.
    2016 – Smith nominated at SAG and won Emmy
    2017 – Newton, MBB & Ryder all SAG but lost to Dowd (an April premiere not SAG eligible)
    2018 – MBB, is SAG nominated but lost to Newton (an April premiere not SAG eligible)
    2019 – Julia Garner, is SAG nominated and won Emmy.

    With the exception of Anna Gunn beating Maggie Smith (which Gunn was the Best Series winner), every SAG nominated supporting performance was won the corresponding Emmy and only lost a spring season premiere.

    If HBC is going to lose, it’s going to be for to someone from a season not premiered yet.

    Sorry. You’re right. I forgot that THT wasn’t eligible for SAG that year

    Luca
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    #1203349134

    I do not see Helena Bonham Carter inciting passion. The Emmys have been going for cool choices over veterans under the current voting system. More acclaim would have given her a rooting factor. John Lithgow has been around of course, but people had not seen him do what he did in The Crown, whereas I do not see what was fresh about Bonham Carter’s work. The Crown in general seems like it is not exciting people this season and she was barely in it anyway.

    100% agree. As I’ve stated before, passion seems to be the key to a win nowadays. Of course HBC isn’t going to turn in a bad performance, and her work in S3 is respected, but did she completely knock people’s socks off? I don’t know. This race remains wide open. I’m still going to go with my NGNG pick, from the very beginning, which is Yvonne Strahovski. But we shall see.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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