( +3 hidden )
March 4, 2016 at 2:39 pm #368140
Does anyone out there agree with me, or am I off in my own little world with this new Emmy prediction that Bobby Cannavale will win the Emmy for “Vinyl”? Hmm…March 4, 2016 at 3:52 pm #368142
Nope. I have him currently in first and plan on keeping him there. He is by no means a lock but it is a pretty open race this year with Hamm and Cranston gone and voters clearly love him.
Edit: Just read your post and mostly agree except I don’t really think episodes matter as much. It doesn’t hurt but it’s by no means a path to victory.March 4, 2016 at 5:50 pm #368144
4. Yes, episodes matter: Many of last
year’s acting winners arguably had the best episode submissions in their
categories, including Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Tony Hale (“Veep”), Uzo
Aduba (“Orange is the New Black”) and Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”). Sure, there
will always be exceptions to the rule — we’re looking at you, Margo
Martindale (“The Americans”) — but episodes do still matter. And
Cannavale has a doozy. In the two-hour pilot of “Vinyl,” his character
a 1970s record executive, has a midlife crisis that includes drinking,
drugs, murder, music and an extremely impactful final shot. It’ll be
tough to beat.
Can we finally settle that episode submissions do
not matter in the new system? The Emmys last year yielded:
- Several winners that won because voters did not watch the episodes
- Some winners that would have won whether voters watched the episodes or not
- Zero winners that could not have won if voters did not watch the episodes
That is a really convenient coincidence that voters supposedly
watched the episodes only in the categories that they did not need to.
The winners who thrived in the popular vote were not even borderline
cases where they would have come second under the old system and the
popular vote was just enough to push them over. They were strong
indicators that episodes do not even matter a little bit. (Also, Jon
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."March 4, 2016 at 11:00 pm #368145
Are you forgetting about Kevin Spacey? He has yet to win for House of Cards (he SHOULD have won last year). Unless Emmy darling Cannavale’s performance changes radically, not this year. (*worst portrayal of cocaine addict EVER)!March 5, 2016 at 2:41 am #368146
Yep, nominees are already asked to send their best episodes to voters which are supposed to represent their best work over the season.
Of course some of them were amazing, most of them were good, and some of them were blah. But you can’t claim tapes did matter and they were the ones that called the shots after you saw good and blah ones triumphing over ”amazing” ones all night.
I see that you didn’t mention her but, I think Allison Janney was the only one who would have won under either system.
As for the question; Kevin Spacey is as big lock as one can get if they don’t change the voting system.March 5, 2016 at 6:21 am #368147
If last year’s ceremony taught us anything is that episode submissions do not matter anymore. 99% of the winners were chosen solely on the buzz or their popularity among the voters. If you’re Alison Janney or JLD or Viola Davis or Peter Dinklage or Uzo Aduba or etc. etc you can send absolutely anything and you’re still gonna win.March 5, 2016 at 6:45 am #368148
I am tired of saying this around here, but I’ll say one last time, Spacey would’ve won if he had submited the library episode in season 1, I guess it was chapter 8. But he didn’t, so he is never winning again unless he gets another episode like this where he gets to really act and not be hammy and laughable, cartoonish like he is in almost every episode of his show.March 5, 2016 at 8:49 am #368149
Shades of Blue is not the greatest drama on television.
That stated, Ray Liotta is riveting as a closeted, corrupt police officer. And he once was a movie star.
I think Liotta has a good shot at winning the Emmy.March 7, 2016 at 12:12 pm #368150
^^LOL @ the above post.
Anyways, I agree with you Marcus. Bobby Cannavale is killing it on Vinyl right now and he’s definitely a contender to win if nominated (and the nomination is quite likely). I’m really enjoying his performance. He commands every scene he’s in and he’s cried, laughed, been high on coke, drunk, been an accomplice to a murder, and survived the destruction of a famed concert venue…and that was just in the first 2 episodes.
I haven’t started the new season of House of Cards yet, so Kevin Spacey is still TBD to me, but the Emmys love him as well. So who knows. This is definitely one of the more exciting Emmy races to predict in 2016!March 7, 2016 at 12:28 pm #368152
Bobby Cannavale gives a very Emmy thirsty performance but nonetheless good. Hope the show doesn’t get shit though. If it does, shame on the Emmys. Vinyl can get cancelled and die for all I care.
LOL. You and me appear to be exactly the same on Vinyl, TWNickPeek. I hope Scorsese gets snubbed so The Knick, Mr. Robot, and even Homeland (specifically “Our Man In Damascus”) can get in, that have more spectacular and dynamic Directing.
For your Goldderby Film Awards consideration: Isle of Dogs for every category, especially Music Score for Alexandre Desplat!March 7, 2016 at 1:15 pm #368153
I’d like at least one reason why this nonsense couldn’t have been posted in the “Vinyl” thread.March 7, 2016 at 5:06 pm #368154
I’m reasonably confident Spacey will prevail here, considering his SAG victory, the absence of Hamm/Cranston and lack of super-strong new competition. Malek could perhaps prevail, but I suspect “Mr. Robot” is something more Globe-friendly than Emmy-friendly. I’m not convinced Cannavale will even be nominated, honestly. I can picture a Spacey-Malek-Odenkirk-Schreiber-Owen-Moura line-up happening.March 8, 2016 at 12:51 pm #368155
Wagner Moura won’t get nominated for Narcos.March 8, 2016 at 3:52 pm #368156
I’m reasonably confident Spacey will prevail here, considering his SAG victory, the absence of Hamm/Cranston and lack of super-strong new competition. Malek could perhaps prevail, but I suspect “Mr. Robot” is something more Globe-friendly than Emmy-friendly. I’m not convinced Cannavale will even be nominated, honestly. I can picture a Spacey-Malek-Odenkirk-Schreiber-Owen-Moura line-up happening.
You bring up SAG as an evidence. But Jon Hamm has never won a SAG, either. Didn’t stop him from winning an Emmy with a popularity vote.
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