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Comedy Predictions (Part 2)

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  • Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203393431

    Hsu is suuuuuch a reach.

    Is she though? Voters seem to watch Maisel and even if it’s just 3×01 she certainly have more material to work with Hinkle does outside of the one episode where Rose goes back to visit her family. Hsu on the other-hand has “actor-baity” scenes in almost every episode; in a beloved show; that’s on an upswing; in a barren field and can take advantage of down the line voting. Is it really that abstract of an idea to think that Hsu isn’t at least in the conversation.

    There isn’t though.

    Exactly outside of Schitt’$, The Good Place & Curb. Everything else regarding comedy series and a potential trickle down is up in the air.

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    Guest 2018
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    #1203393437

    The monthly ‘In An Ideal World’ wishlist (in a 5-nominee field):

    Comedy Series
    GLOW
    The Good Place
    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    Run
    Schitt’s Creek

    Lead Actor
    Jim Carrey, Kidding
    Ted Danson, The Good Place
    Hugh Laurie, Avenue 5
    Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
    Adam Sandberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

    Lead Actress
    Kristen Bell, The Good Place
    Rachel Brosnahan, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida
    Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
    Merritt Wever, Run

    Supporting Actor
    William Jackson Harper, The Good Place
    Marc Evan Jackson, The Good Place
    Manny Jacinto, The Good Place
    Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek
    Tony Shalhoub, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

    Supporting Actress
    Alex Borstein, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    D’Arcy Carden, The Good Place
    Jameela Jamil, The Good Place
    Jane Lynch, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
    Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek

    Guest Actor
    Jason Alexander, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    Mahershala Ali, Ramy
    Luke Kirby, Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    Jason Mantzoukas, The Good Place
    Timothy Olyphant, The Good Place

    Guest Actress
    Angela Bassett, A Black Lady Sketch Show
    Julia Garner, Modern Love
    Lisa Kudrow, The Good Place
    Maya Rudolph, The Good Place
    Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Run

    Every category, strong already with the minimum number of nominees. SNL should not be shoved into comedy. But in this ideal world, the bouncer has kept them from the dance.

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    Emmyfan
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    #1203393642

    Last night’s Schitt’s Creek has made me believe for the first time this season that the show can win Comedy Series. Dan Levy knows exactly what he is doing.

    When it’s right, it’s right

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203393647

    Careful there, you’ll get injured pulling multiple muscles. The usual suspects (RB, Borstein, Lynch, Shalhoub) and MAYBE Kirby and Sykes. No more than 7. Too much competition from other shows.

    Kirby is a complete and total lock for a nomination. He won last year, and he had his best episode yet this season. Also, there’s no way that Hinkle’s missing.

    Is she though? Voters seem to watch Maisel and even if it’s just 3×01 she certainly have more material to work with Hinkle does outside of the one episode where Rose goes back to visit her family. Hsu on the other-hand has “actor-baity” scenes in almost every episode; in a beloved show; that’s on an upswing; in a barren field and can take advantage of down the line voting. Is it really that abstract of an idea to think that Hsu isn’t at least in the conversation.

    Hinkle had way more to do than Hsu. Also, the field might be incredibly empty, but I don’t think it’s empty enough to get a fourth Maisel actress in. Right now I feel very confident in Annie Murphy getting in, as she gives a great performance in the other major contender this year. And then there’s McKinnon. She didn’t have a particularly strong season, but I’m sure she’ll be name checked anyway. I’m expecting Gilpin to fill in the last slot again. If she could get in every other time despite her show flopping, I don’t see why it won’t happen now.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203393655

    I think Maisel maxes out at:

    Brosnahan
    Shalhoub
    Brown
    McClain
    Zegan
    Borstein
    Lynch
    Hinkle
    Kirby
    Levi

    Currently predicting all apart from Zegan.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203393670

    I think Maisel maxes out at: Brosnahan Shalhoub Brown McClain Zegan Borstein Lynch Hinkle Kirby Levi Currently predicting all apart from Zegan.

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    Lance
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    #1203393701

    If Schitts Creek could win any at the main ceremony (which it can) the best shots it has at winning is in Lead Actor (Eugene Levy) and for Writing. Also has a smaller shot in Lead Actress and Supp Actor

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    forwardswill
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    #1203393724

    has a smaller shot in Lead Actress

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    Jays
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    #1203393726

    Hsu is totally not happening. Not even sure how she’s being bought up here. Borstein, Lynch and Hinkle are way ahead of her and Maisel isn’t getting 4 acting noms in the same category.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203393747

    To be fair, I see where he’s coming from. Levy’s biggest competitor is Danson, whose on a show that only did well at the Emmys last year, and even then, two actors (Bell and Carden) who should’ve made the cut ended up being snubbed. Meanwhile, O’Hara’s bigggest competitor is Brosnahan, whose a previous winner on a show that’s very popular with the Emmys, and especially popular with actors. However, I have O’Hara winning. Brosnahan is exceptional, but she’s yet to truly break new ground with her character since the first season. She’s just as good now as she was then, but I think O’Hara, having never won for her role and in her show’s final season will have more passion to translate to a win.

    I also disagree with the original post indicating Dan Levy’s chances of winning for acting with Catherine O’Hara’s chances of winning. Actors clearly love Shalhoub’s performance, and I think Levy will get recognized for his writing instead. If Schitt’s Creek takes a supporting category, I think it’ll be for Murphy. I’m still predicting Borstein, but her internal competition is more likely to cost her votes than Shalhoub’s.

    Right now, I think Maisel takes Series, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Directing, while Schitt’s Creek takes Actress, Actor, and Writing.

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    Heptapod
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    #1203393782

    I don’t see Eugene Levy winning. He’s by far the weakest actor of the core family four, and his character is the least interesting. His storyline this season is also the most uninteresting, and other than one episode with a decent submission tape, he just hasn’t really wowed at all this season. And yeah, he’s a respected name, but also not the kind of name people will vote for if they don’t watch the show. The acting branch would have to be crazy big fans of Schitt’s to vote him for the win, and I don’t think they love the show quite THAT much. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but people who don’t watch the show won’t vote for him, and people who do watch the show will likely care more about giving wins to O’Hara and Murphy and Daniel Levy first.

    I’m standing by Ted Danson for this category.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203393784

    I also disagree with the original post indicating Dan Levy’s chances of winning for acting with Catherine O’Hara’s chances of winning. Actors clearly love Shalhoub’s performance, and I think Levy will get recognized for his writing instead. If Schitt’s Creek takes a supporting category, I think it’ll be for Murphy. I’m still predicting Borstein, but her internal competition is more likely to cost her votes than Shalhoub’s.

    I think Dan Levy is more likely than Murphy purely because I think Brown is a bigger threat to Shalhoub than either Hinkle or Lynch are to Borstein. If Zegan gets nominated as well it will be even worse for him.

    I also think there’s small potential of Dan Levy being this year’s Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a creator coming from nothing to winning Series, Acting and Writing.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1203393935

    Wouldn’t it be better for Julie Bowen and Ty Burrell in Modern Family to campaign in lead, so they don’t split votes with their supporting cast members?! I’d really like to see farewell mentions for some of the performers, but if the studio is campaigning for them with the old routine again, I don’t see much chance of it.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203394002

    I’m predicting a Schitt’s Creek sweep. The final season of the show seems rather buzzless right now, but once it hits netflix, the buzz will be here. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Maisel ends up never winning Series (or Actress) again.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203394112

    I think Dan Levy is more likely than Murphy purely because I think Brown is a bigger threat to Shalhoub than either Hinkle or Lynch are to Borstein. If Zegan gets nominated as well it will be even worse for him. I also think there’s small potential of Dan Levy being this year’s Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a creator coming from nothing to winning Series, Acting and Writing.

    I see Brown as a case where he’ll have enough support to get nominated, but once he’s nominated, he’ll lose most of it. I don’t see how people will think that a guest in half the episodes will be more worthy of their vote than a fan favorite who gives a wonderful performance during the entire season. I’m also expecting Zegen to get in, but given the fact that Shalhoub’s character is much more showy and popular, I don’t think Zegen will be able to take away too many votes. Anyway, let’s not forget that Shalhoub won repeated at SAG. His first SAG win could initially be chalked up to the Barry and Kominsky actors vote splitting, but his second shows that he really shouldn’t be underestimated. Hader and Scott had huge buzz and no one to split the vote with, but Shalhoub still beat them. I won’t completely discount Levy, and while the PWB comparison isn’t invalid, Waller-Bridge was undeniably the face of her series in a way that Levy isn’t. I can see him going for the clean sweep that she did, but I think people aren’t as gaga about Schitt’s Creek as they were about Fleabag!(that could change though), and I don’t think he has the same instant star appeal (probably not the best term but I think people know what I’m going for here) that PWB picked up around this time.

    As for Borstein, I think Hinkle and Lynch are more likely to suck away votes from her. She’s already won two Emmys for this role, so some voters may feel a little more inclined to spread the wealth, and her internal competition has more acclaim than Shalhoub’s. While Borstein is widely (and rightfully) regarded as the best of the supporting women, there are some who prefer Hinkle and Lynch. With Shalhoub, it seems like a universal opinion that he’s the best of the men, so I think the idea of her suffering from vote splitting and opening the door for Murphy (something I’m not predicting, but considering) feels more likely than the same thing happening with Shalhoub.

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