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Creative Arts Emmys 2020 predictions (Event closes 9/14 at 4:00 PT)

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    Anthony 🐜
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    Jul 26th, 2013
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    #1203624139

    Adriano Goldman coming for his second Cinematography win for The Crown’s “Aberfan”.

    I also have Benjamin Caron winning Drama Directing for that episode.

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    Moonshadow
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    #1203631729

    How did The Little Mermaid Live get nominated for contemporary makeup when their hairstyling team entered in the period and/or character category? And isn’t the bulk of the hairstyling in A Celebration of the Music from Coco not contemporary? It’s character work on dancers meant to look like they’re from the movie or celebrating Day of the Dead.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203631775

    They just need to rename some of these categories.  There are no period/character categories for variety, so I do not know why they bother adding “contemporary”.  This is like when Horace and Pete variably had to enter in the multi-camera “comedy” races.

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    Moonshadow
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    #1203632409

    Little Mermaid Live entered for contemporary makeup for a variety, nonfiction or reality program (where it’s nominated), but did not submit in the corresponding category for hairstyling. They instead submitted for period and/or character hairstyling (where they are not nominated).

    Several variety programs entered in the period and/or character categories including Saturday Night Live, Live in Front of a Studio Audience and The SpongeBob Musical: Live on Stage.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203633138

    Digging deeper here, the period/character makeup category covers “comedy, drama, variety, limited series or a movie”, but period/character hairstyling covers “comedy, drama, limited series, variety, reality, movie or a special”.  So it looks like what is actually happening here is that for hair, all of these variety programs are forced to period/character if appropriate.  But for makeup, they have a choice because they do not fit neatly into either category (period/character makeup or contemporary variety makeup).

    As for Coco, I think that it counts as contemporary because it is contemporary-set and because I think that you can argue that “character” is more for creatures or impressions. What I mean here is that there seems to be enough to justify it that I doubt that the academy would rule against it, but there is still time if you are so inclined until nominations finalize on Tuesday.

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    Cardi_C_Emeritus
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    Sep 7th, 2018
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    #1203635934

    It would be so deserving. I watched season 1 this weekend and already added 14 songs on my playlist and just discovered that Solange Knowles serves as music consultant!

    which means she just threw out maybe a few ideas without knowing anything about the job and so made the real music supervisor’s job more difficult

    same for Questlove on High Fidelity

    cant imagine what a nightmare that must have been

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    wolfali
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    #1203653664

    Current Craft Predictions :

    MOVIE : El Camino : A Breaking Bad Movie (Bad Education)
    VARIETY SKETCH SERIES : Saturday Night Live (A Black Lady Sketch Show)
    DOCUMENTARY SERIES : The Last Dance (Tiger King: Murder, Mayhem and Madness)
    GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES : Eddie Murphy, Saturday Night Live (Luke Kirby, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES : Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live (Wanda Sykes, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES : James Cromwell, Succession (<i>Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian</i>)
    GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES : Cherry Jones, Succession (Phylicia Rashad, This is Us)
    VOICE-OVER PERFORMANCE : Taika Waititi, The Mandalorian (Maya Rudolph, Big Mouth)
    NARRATOR : David Attenborough, Seven Worlds, One Planet (Lupita Nyong’o, Serengeti)
    CASTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES : The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Schitt’s Creek)
    CASTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES : Succession (The Crown)
    CASTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE : Watchmen (Mrs. America)
    CINEMATOGRAPHY MULTI-CAMERA : Will & Grace (The Ranch)
    CINEMATOGRAPHY SINGLE-CAMERA 1/2 hour: The Mandalorian (The End of the F***ing World)
    CINEMATOGRAPHY SINGLE-CAMERA HOUR : The Crown (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    CINEMATOGRAPHY LIMITED SERIES : Watchmen (This Extraordinary Being) (Watchmen (Little Fear of Lightning))
    PERIOD COSTUMES : The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (The Crown)
    FANTASY/SCI-FI COSTUMES : Watchmen (The Mandalorian)
    CONTEMPORARY COSTUMES : Schitt’s Creek (Unorthodox)
    CONTEMPORARY HAIRSTYLING : Schitt’s Creek (Black-ish)
    PERIOD/CHARACTER HAIRSTYLING : The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (The Crown)
    REALITY HOST : RuPaul (Nicole Byer)
    DERIVATIVE INTERACTIVE : Big Mouth Guide to Life (Doctor Who : The Runaway)
    INTERACTIVE EXTENSION : Stranger Things (Westworld)
    MAIN TITLE DESIGN : Watchmen (Carnival Row)
    CONTEMPORARY MAKEUP : Euphoria (Big Little Lies)
    NON PROSTHETIC PERIOD/CHARACTER MAKEUP : Star Trek : Picard (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    PROSTHETIC MAKEUP : The Mandalorian (Star Trek : Picard)
    MUSIC COMPOSITION : Succession (The Mandalorian)
    MUSIC COMPOSITION FOR A LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE : Watchmen (Unorthodox)
    MAIN TITLE THEME MUSIC : Unorthodox (Hollywood)
    MUSIC AND LYRICS : Watchmen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    MUSIC SUPERVISION : Watchmen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    DRAMA EDITING : Stranger Things (Succession)
    COMEDY EDITING : Insecure (Schitt’s Creek)
    MOVIE/LIMITED EDITING : Watchmen (Watchmen)
    MULTI CAM EDITING : Will and Grace (One Day at a Time)
    PRODUCTION DESIGN : Succession (Ozark)
    FANTASY/PERIOD PRODUCTION DESIGN : Watchmen (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    HALF HOUR PRODUCTION DESIGN : The Mandalorian (What We Do in the Shadows)
    SOUND EDITING HALF HOUR : The Mandalorian (What We Do in the Shadows)
    SOUND EDITING HOUR : Stranger Things (Better Call Saul)
    SOUND EDITING LIMITED SERIES : Watchmen (Devs)
    SOUND MIXING HOUR : Ozark (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    SOUND MIXING LIMITED SERIES : Watchmen (Hollywood)
    SOUND MIXING HALF HOUR : The Mandalorian (Modern Family)
    VISUAL EFFECTS : Watchmen (Stranger Things)
    SUPPORTING VISUAL EFFECTS : Devs (The Handmaid’s Tale)
    COMEDY STUNTS : Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Ballers)
    DRAMA STUNTS : Stranger Things (The Mandalorian)

     

    Projected Wins Per Show :

    12 – Watchmen
    6 – The Mandalorian
    5 – Succession
    4 – Stranger Things
    3 – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Saturday Night Live
    2 – Schitt’s Creek, Will and Grace
    1 – Big Mouth, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Crown, Devs, El Camino, Euphoria, Insecure, Ozark, RuPaul’s Drag Race, Seven Worlds : One Planet

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Emmyfan
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    #1203657784

    Best Short Form Variety Series

    Being at Home with Samantha Bee Samantha Bee
    Between Two Ferns with Zach Galifianakis: The Movie
    Carpool Karaoke: The Series
    Jimmy Kimmel’s Quarantine Minilogues
    The Randy Rainbow Show

    https://www.onstageblog.com/editorials/2020/8/19/randy-rainbow-under-fire-as-offensive-tweets-resurface

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203659733

    Cancel him and give it to the Between Two Ferns movie that was ineligible as a movie.

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    eastwest
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    #1203663356

    I think this is where the majority of “the black vote” materializes. Yeah it’s gross to think of it that way, but when award show history quacks like a duck and walks like a duck. As of now, I think Watchmen will be where it’ll be represented in the main ceremony (that and sister Tyler’s lifetime achievement award). I guess my main thing is that I wish it was organic like a couple of years ago in the acting categories. That was nice. I’ll celebrate bc we deserve always.

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    wolfali
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    #1203663633

    I have a really strange feeling with the guest acting categories they’re going to award Eddie Murphy and Maya Rudolph/Wanda Sykes because they’ll think it might show they are recognising unrecognised veteran black performers (and because if she wins Rudolph is playing Kamala Harris) but then they’ll do what they did with The Handmaid’s Tale last year and award a win worthy guest performance from Succession and a cameo.

    I don’t know but I find it very interesting (and frankly bemusing) that a majority of the performers nominated in the Comedy categories are people of colour but then the show that has received the most acting nominations out of any show this year has the whitest ensemble this year. I mean Succession deserves its acting nominations don’t get me wrong but its still a bit strange.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wilfredpickles
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    Jul 15th, 2017
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    #1203663669

    Random question: I only just discovered the Outstanding Music Direction category and was wondering if anyone had read up on the official explanation for how it’s different from Music Supervision?

    I just started watching Fosse/Verdon and don’t understand how it got into both.

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    wolfali
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    #1203663673

    A musical director tends to denote someone who is responsible for the entire music of a production (like a band master in a marching band almost) whilst a music supervisor tends to denote someone who combines music and visual media. The latter often tends to either be independent from the director or tends to be done by the director.

    Anyway if you’ve started Fosse/Verdon you’re in for a treat. You aren’t ready for Michelle Williams’s performance!

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203663899

    I think this is where the majority of “the black vote” materializes. Yeah it’s gross to think of it that way, but when award show history quacks like a duck and walks like a duck. As of now, I think Watchmen will be where it’ll be represented in the main ceremony (that and sister Tyler’s lifetime achievement award). I guess my main thing is that I wish it was organic like a couple of years ago in the acting categories. That was nice. I’ll celebrate bc we deserve always.

    We already saw this in the nominations.  Black actors make up the majority of Creative Arts acting nominees, but only a third of the main telecast acting nominees.  There are twice as many Black actors nominated in the main categories as last year, but three times as many at Creative Arts over last year.  People are not going to vote against their actual favourites like The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Ozark, Schitt’s Creek and Succession, so the guest, short form and voice-over categories give them an out.  This is also part of why I have The Daily Show.

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    wolfali
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    #1203665638

    So I looked at what below the line awards here shows that have won both Drama and Comedy Series have won since 2015 :

    Comedy –

    Veep (2015) – Casting
    Veep (2016) – Casting
    Veep (2017) – Casting, Cinematography, Production Design
    The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (2018) – Casting, Music Supervision, Picture Editing
    Fleabag (2019) – Casting, Picture Editing

    Drama –

    Game of Thrones (2015) – Casting, Makeup, Picture Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Special Visual Effects, Stunts
    Game of Thrones (2016) – Casting, Costumes, Makeup, Makeup (Prosthetic), Picture Editing, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Stunts
    The Handmaid’s Tale (2017) – Cinematography, Guest Actress, Production Design
    Game of Thrones (2018) – Costumes, Makeup (Prosthetic), Music Composition, Production Design, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Stunts
    Game of Thrones (2019) – Casting, Costumes, Main Title Design, Makeup, Music Composition, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Stunt Coordination

    Things to Note :

    – No show has ever won either Series category under the new system with a shut out in wins at the creative arts. If either MaiselSchitt’s or Insecure or The Crown, Ozark or Succession get shut out it is essentially game over for their Series chances.

    – No show has ever won Comedy Series without winning Casting in the past five years. This means whomever wins Casting is winning Series.

    – Apart from Game of Thrones last year (which lost to the Limited Series winner) no show has won Drama Series without winning production design in the past five years. Out of the Drama Series nominees only The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, The Mandalorian, Ozark and Succession are Production Design nominees. The Crown is probably losing its production design category to Watchmen and either Ozark or Succession is winning their category but in the rare case both lose and something like Big Little Lies or The Morning Show surprises it will be very interesting to see what happens in the Series race.

    – Veep in 2015 and 2016 remains the only Comedy, Drama or Limited Series to have been able to win only one craft award and then win Series which is something shows like When They See Us have failed to do. It will be very interesting to see if another show manages to achieve this feat this year or if another will fail.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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