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Drama Predictions (Part 11)

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    wolfali
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    #1203551044

    With eight slots, I have now, for the first time, moved The Morning Show into my predicted lineup. I have been wary about this one throughout (and continue to be), but Jen and Reese are just too attractive (I don’t mean physically) in Hollywood at the moment. Plus, the argument that it’s one of the only new shows that has a shot of getting in has me intrigued as well. I don’t have it going beyond Series, Actress (just Jen) and Supp. Actor, but Carell could definitely be a threat. I took out This Is Us for it, which I just don’t think has the heft to get in this year, which is ironic since I do still have Stranger Things in. But ST is something I have more confidence in since it’s been able to amass nominations across the board whereas TIU still hasn’t broken into writing and directing.

    I’m cautious about Carell (which is ironic as I am predicting both Aniston and Witherspoon as well as Crudup and Mbatha-Raw) because I see some similarities between him an Winona Ryder. Both him and Ryder got in at SAG alongside the buzziest and more acclaimed cast member of their show in their category, both him and Ryder were overdue and correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Ryder submitted in Lead for season 1 after previously being in Supporting?

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Luca
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    #1203551064

    Carell’s SAG nom is something I think is indeed being overvalued. They love him there. They nominated him for freakin’ Battle of the Sexes. TMS’s performance at SAG still has me scratching my head because how did it get three individual actors in but not ensemble? People have said that it’s because it’s new and so, but then why did all three actors get in? It still puzzles me. I’m not holding it against it at all; I just find it very strange.

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    wolfali
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    #1203551066

    Carell’s SAG nom is something I think is indeed being overvalued. They love him there. They nominated him for freakin’ Battle of the Sexes. TMS’s performance at SAG still has me scratching my head because how did it get three individual actors in but not ensemble? People have said that it’s because it’s new and so, but then why did all three actors get in? It still puzzles me. I’m not holding it against it at all; I just find it very strange.

    And also don’t forget SAG loves movie stars. We saw that already with Ryder’s nomination and also with Stone’s and Fiennes’s last year (although I don’t think the latter was far off from a nomination anyway due to his performance but I think his name helped and it would explain why Bradley Whitford failed to make it in this year).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    forwardswill
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    #1203551080

    The SAG nom for Carrell specifically is almost irrelevant to me in predicting him for Emmy nod. I’ve already mentioned in other threads how I feel like the winter awards might have declining importance this year so I don’t feel like the specifics of Carrell getting in there guarantees him here. What I do think though is that even if I want to ignore the winter awards in terms of contender-by-contender, on a more general level actors quite quickly latched themselves onto The Morning Show faster than almost any show in recent years. Accordingly, combining this with Apple’s rigorous campaign, I am expecting The Morning Show to be big with actors at the Emmys and if I’m expecting that then Carrell being the show’s sole representation in Lead Actor makes it almost foolish for me not to check him off in my predictions. I also think (as I have also mentioned before lol) Carrell benefits from the visibility of Space Force, which, alongside how people have been binging The Office, creates a general air of goodwill towards him and not just The Morning Show.

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    wolfali
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    #1203551088

    The SAG nom for Carrell specifically is almost irrelevant to me in predicting him for Emmy nod. I’ve already mentioned in other threads how I feel like the winter awards might have declining importance this year so I don’t feel like the specifics of Carrell getting in there guarantees him here. What I do think though is that even if I want to ignore the winter awards in terms of contender-by-contender, on a more general level actors quite quickly latched themselves onto The Morning Show faster than almost any show in recent years. Accordingly, combining this with Apple’s rigorous campaign, I am expecting The Morning Show to be big with actors at the Emmys and if I’m expecting that then Carrell being the show’s sole representation in Lead Actor makes it almost foolish for me not to check him off in my predictions. I also think (as I have also mentioned before lol) Carrell benefits from the visibility of Space Force, which, alongside how people have been binging The Office, creates a general air of goodwill towards him and not just The Morning Show.

    That is an interesting point with Carrell that I haven’t thought about.

    I am also inclined to agree about the significance of winter awards this year and I’m wondering whether shows like Big Little Lies and Stranger Things might get shut out in acting in favour of shows like Succession, The Crown and Ozark.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    ricardo505
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    #1203551101

    wasn’t Ryder submitted in Lead for season 1 after previously being in Supporting?

    Ryder submitted in supporting for season 1.

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    wolfali
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    #1203551105

    Wow Killing Eve are really campaigning hard for those nominations.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CB1K3ALFYl1/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

    I’m not saying this has a bearing on who will get nominated but outside of Goldderby I’ve seen a surprising amount of silence in terms of campaigning for the ensembles of some shows/performers. So far the only shows whose full ensembles have been campaigning hard that I’ve seen are Killing Eve, The Morning Show, Ozark and Succession. I have seen ZERO campaigning from the actors of The Handmaid’s Tale (apart from Bradley Whitford), PoseBig Little LiesStranger Things and This is Us. I haven’t seen Colman or Lapotaire campaigning at all for The Crown but I’ve seen HBC, Dance, Doherty, Menzies and Watkins a lot outside of Goldderby campaigning.

    I mean I know some people will respond to my points on The Handmaid’s Tale and This is Us and say that the actors aren’t campaigning because they don’t need it but I think considering the former aired so long ago and the latter doesn’t have its SAG ensemble nomination to keep it that close in voters minds I’d say it doesn’t look good for them. I mean I’ve seen shows that are never in a million years getting nominated for Emmys like Doctor Who and His Dark Materials than THT, This is Us and Stranger Things.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Luca
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    #1203551113

    And yes, I will say that both THT and TIU don’t need to campaign (as much) because they’re already established Emmy favorites. And let’s be real here, we have no idea what’s happening BTS, because that’s the only campaigning that really matters. Roundtables, discussions and so are for us, the audience. Sure, voters could be among the viewers (ofc), but many FYC events happen without the public knowing.

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    Couverture
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    #1203551117

    The Morning Show is the only drama/comedy in the history of SAG to get three (or more) individual acting nominations for a fall debut season. Infact, the only non-fall debut show to even manage this is The Sopranos, which premiered almost a year before the noms and was coming off a historical Emmy performance and immense critical acclaim & buzz. The West Wing, 30 Rock, Modern Family, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel…all SAG favourites that failed to achieve this despite getting 3 or more actors nominated multiple times for their later seasons.

    So, its history making SAG overperformance coupled with the fact that it was on a brand new, untested streaming service with mediocre reviews and still managed that is enough to tell me that The Morning Show will get more than the two acting noms this site is predicting for it, both of which it’s competitive for btw. I mean it is second and third for supporting actor and actress, yet it’s barely in the top ten for the rest of its performers. At least it’s being started to be predicted for that Drama series nod like it should have been a long while ago.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203551126

    As I have predicted, Witherspoon is putting herself out there as much as Aniston. She is getting that nom.

    This is a very weird year for campaigning because all FYC events are cancelled, Hollywood is shut down so people aren’t talking to each other as much as before, and I assume big parties are also limited. So media coverage is more important than ever, and Aniston and Witherspoon are winning that game. It seems like a lot of people continue to overlook TMS because they don’t like it (the word “payola” used everytime something disliked scores big makes my eyes roll) but it’s coming for more noms than what people are currently predicting. I’m tempted to start predicting Gugu or even Duplass (also if Witherspoon is nominated it’s gonna hurt Aniston for the win, so rejoice Linney stans).

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    Luca
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    #1203551131

    Laura Linney can beat Jen even if Witherspoon is snubbed.

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    PeytonKawai
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    #1203551133

    As I have predicted, Witherspoon is putting herself out there as much as Aniston. She is getting that nom. This is a very weird year for campaigning because all FYC events are cancelled, Hollywood is shut down so people aren’t talking to each other as much as before, and I assume big parties are also limited. So media coverage is more important than ever, and Aniston and Witherspoon are winning that game. It seems like a lot of people continue to overlook TMS because they don’t like it (the word “payola” used everytime something disliked scores big makes my eyes roll) but it’s coming for more noms than what people are currently predicting. I’m tempted to start predicting Gugu or even Duplass (also if Witherspoon is nominated it’s gonna hurt Aniston for the win, so rejoice Linney stans).

    We need to prepare 8 nominations for both Best Drama Supporting Actor and Actress. Already more than 295 & 241 contenders are submitted for them, respectively. I also predict Mbatha-Raw. She was really really wonderful in this!

    My predictions for BSA are Bonham Carter, Garner, Snook, McTeer, Mbatha-Raw, Newton, Streep, & Erivo, and I dropped Dern.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203551137

    Laura Linney can beat Jen even if Witherspoon is snubbed.

    Did I say the contrary? It would be an easier path for Linney to win even if she is already really likely.

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    wolfali
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    #1203551160

    And yes, I will say that both THT and TIU don’t need to campaign (as much) because they’re already established Emmy favorites. And let’s be real here, we have no idea what’s happening BTS, because that’s the only campaigning that really matters. Roundtables, discussions and so are for us, the audience. Sure, voters could be among the viewers (ofc), but many FYC events happen without the public knowing.

    Sure they could be campaigning behind the scenes but the fact that there has been zero public campaigning (which we’ve seen heavily from both The Handmaid’s Tale and This is Us in the past) doesn’t look good.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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