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Drama Predictions (Part 12)

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    jacob121
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    #1203562952

    but I’d like to warn that in the same way that Ozark won’t have Bateman on the ballot The Crown won’t have Stephen Daldry.

    I think this fact is being ignored by all of those predicting the Crown to win directing. Personally, I am not viewing it as a frontrunner in the category (or for series, generally).

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    methaddiction
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    #1203562956

    I don’t think The Crown is winning anything in the main categories outside of Supporting Actress this year.

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    Kay
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    #1203562975

    In before Jonathan Nolan snatches Directing from Succession (vote-split), Ozark (vote-split + Bateman as competition for The Outsider) and The Crown (snubbed at DGA… is it eligible?).

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    Couverture
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    #1203562977

    Ozark with its double WGA noms has shown more support from writers than Succession has with actors. It’s weird that most predictions are going out of their way to not include the former in writing when the latter is being predicted for 4-5 acting nominations by most people here.

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    Kay
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    #1203563013

    Eh… WGA in episodic? well we should be considering a nomination for This Is Us then… (I agree Ozark is easily getting a Writing nomination but these WGA noms don’t mean much tbh).

    Because it’s not like Succession has never received an acting nomination. They have multiple noms at Globes, CC and will probably get one at TCA. (One would even say these CC and Globe noms may just be as irrelevant as Ozark‘s WGA noms).

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    Couverture
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    #1203563187

    Eh… WGA in episodic? well we should be considering a nomination for This Is Us then… (I agree Ozark is easily getting a Writing nomination but these WGA noms don’t mean much tbh).

    That wasn’t my point and I’m obviously not predicting based on those alone anyway but something to be noted that those noms came for its mediocre reviewed seasons. The point was people are more willing to hold Ozark’s past writing performance against it (especially when its current season with its big jump in critical reception hasn’t competed anywhere) than Succession’s acting one considering most people on these forums have it in for at least 3-4 noms, including people like me and Luca.

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    wolfali
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    I think this fact is being ignored by all of those predicting the Crown to win directing. Personally, I am not viewing it as a frontrunner in the category (or for series, generally).

    Actually no.

    No one is saying Ozark is going to lose because Bateman isn’t on the ballot for it. Bateman will garner some of the Ozark supporting votes due to goodwill and if Ozark gets a second episode nominated it’s not going to help it.

    As for The Crown whilst Daldry isn’t on the ballot it has a standout episode that is being submitted. I don’t see why voters would vote for Cri de Coeur instead of Aberfan.

    The reason I have lost hope in Succession winning Directing is because I don’t see how This is Not For Tears overcomes splitting with Hunting.

    Ozark with its double WGA noms has shown more support from writers than Succession has with actors. It’s weird that most predictions are going out of their way to not include the former in writing when the latter is being predicted for 4-5 acting nominations by most people here.

    If you’re saying that because Ozark got nominated in Episodic Drama (an award decided by a small panel of writers) that it has more support than Succession with actors then I look forward to your predictions of This is UsMr. Robot and The Affair. As Kay said one can go as far as saying that WGA episodic drama is as irrelevant as Globe and CC nominations and wins. And as we know Succession has 1 CC acting win, 1 Globe acting win and 5 other acting nominations.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Luca
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    #1203563211

    it has a standout episode that is being submitted

    That barely matters. Reparations won last year after all, lol.

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    Tyler
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    #1203563271

    I’ve made this argument several times but lets do it again post-ballots. Directing wins go to the writing winner or “names”, whether the names be an Oscar-nominated film director, a famous actor, or the show runner of the show. Judging by this, Succession is out front for directing because its clearly taking writing and previous directing winners don’t have the names like they used too. That said, Succession could now vote-split, so things are complicated. If the big shows are double nominated and Bagman alone for BCS gets in, I may predict it to win on the strength of Gilligan alone (and it would be a deserving passion pick). It may sounds ludicrous, but the directors are just sooooo name checky. I think its pretty likely for both Ozark and The Crown to get two in, and don’t see either of them prevailing if that is the case, particularly the former without the strength of Bateman.

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    jacob121
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    #1203563282

    Actually no.

    No one is saying Ozark is going to lose because Bateman isn’t on the ballot for it. Bateman will garner some of the Ozark supporting votes due to goodwill and if Ozark gets a second episode nominated it’s not going to help it.

    As for The Crown whilst Daldry isn’t on the ballot it has a standout episode that is being submitted. I don’t see why voters would vote for Cri de Coeur instead of Aberfan.

    The reason I have lost hope in Succession winning Directing is because I don’t see how This is Not For Tears overcomes splitting with Hunting.

    Not sure what you are getting at with that first point as I was talking about Daldry specifically. Having his name on the ballot undoubtedly help The Crown win directing the first time and without a similar big name and/or associated showrunner on the ballot, its chances are decreased. I feel like that’s pretty indisputable.

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    Couverture
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    #1203563308

    Ozark’s panel and non-panel nominations with the writers for mediocre reviewed seasons that weren’t close to winning series shows more support for it in the past than Succession had with its zero acting noms for acclaimed seasons and even when it’s winning the series prizes and yes, I stand by this point. If anyone has actually got any valid argument to counter this then feel free to do so. And I repeat, I’m not predicting Ozark only based on WGA so you can stop with those This is Us mentions, but anyway, feel free to drag me if I’m proven wrong on nomination morning lol.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203563332

    So we are in that time of year when BCS stans claim it’s winning directing or writing. Alright.

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    Tyler
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    #1203563365

    I said I would predict it if and only if Bagman alone gets nominated and Succession, Crown, and Ozark got two nominations. You can chalk it up to delusional stanning all you want, but this branch loves a name check, and none of the frontrunners have names and could likely vote split. Until then, Succession is still out front.

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203563435

    Ozark’s panel and non-panel nominations with the writers for mediocre reviewed seasons that weren’t close to winning series shows more support for it in the past than Succession had with its zero acting noms for acclaimed seasons and even when it’s winning the series prizes and yes, I stand by this point. If anyone has actually got any valid argument to counter this then feel free to do so. And I repeat, I’m not predicting Ozark only based on WGA so you can stop with those This is Us mentions, but anyway, feel free to drag me if I’m proven wrong on nomination morning lol.

    Yeah, I think Ozark is gonna surprise us all. But I think Succession will too.

    The Morning Show will probably get just about what Apple wanted.

    I definitely see The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale and Big Little Lies all underperforming in nominations.

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    estrelas
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    #1203563471

    Yeah, I think Ozark is gonna surprise us all. But I think Succession will too. The Morning Show will probably get just about what Apple wanted. I definitely see The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale and Big Little Lies all underperforming in nominations.

    I really don’t understand why some of you are trying to diminish The Crown. It’s not going to underperform. I actually think the opposite. I do think it might get snubbed for “Cri de Coeur” in directing but tbh I never saw the appeal in submitting that episode. “Tywysog Cymru” and “Moondust” (from the same director as Cri) were much better directed episodes. But overall I don’t think going to underperform.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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