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Drama Predictions (Part 13)

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203574772

    Supporting Actress is one category where the winner (and our frontrunner) will totally depend on how the nominations actually come out. Who all gets in from THT and how many? Who all gets in from BLL and how many? Does McTeer also get in from Ozark? Does previous winner Newton get in?

    It’s such an exciting category to predict because right now, I can see a path for the win for multiple actresses, unlike Supporting Actor where it’s down to two actors and Lead Actress where it’s also down to two actresses.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203574776

    Or the fact that Stranger Things got five SAG nominations in 2017 and won ensemble and then only got three acting nominations at the Emmys (none of which were for Winona Ryder).

    The Winona Ryder snub was one of the most perplexing ones I’ve ever seen.

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    estrelas
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    #1203574784

    The Winona Ryder snub was one of the most perplexing ones I’ve ever seen.

    I think she suffered from category confusion. She was nominated all season long for lead and then was campaigned by Netflix in supporting.

    FYC Emmys: Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress), Olivia Colman (Drama Actress), Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress), Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress), Zendaya (Drama Actress), Alexis Bledel (Drama Guest Actress)

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    wolfali
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    #1203574786

    I don’t want to sound like a delusional stan but I wonder if Stateless can help Strahovski secure the nom, she is getting raves for it.

    This is what I was thinking when Netflix announced the release date.

    It’s too early to say whether the show will be a massive hit but it doesn’t hurt her. Especially considering that we’ve seen in the past how acclaimed performances in other films and series may have indirectly helped people on the bubble get in like Melissa McCarthy, Katherine Heigl, Regina King and Vanessa Kirby.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203574840

    Damn… are there any people of color even close to winning above the line? As in… top 3 in their category?

    Depending on how nominations line up on the morning. Cynthia Erivo for The Outsider.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203574842

    Now let me talk about all the shows that like Watchmen didn’t have summer/spring release dates, almost all of which weren’t on Netflix and got shut out at SAG for their first seasons only to dominate at the Emmys later that year. Homeland, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Atlanta, Transparent, Master of None, and Pose.

    I was talking about the last few years, Homeland, Transparent and Master of None are old. They do not like Pose, it was snubbed for season two as well just like Succession. So the only valid examples are Atlanta (another show that they do not like very much and that they will never reward) and Maisel.

    Summary: Maisel and Atlanta vs The Morning Show, Westworld and This is Us, so again, the ones who did manage to get in for their first seasons are more, even discounting all of your other exceptions (THT, ST, Ozark, The Crown, Dead to me, GLOW, Killing Eve, The Kominsky Method, Jack Ryan). Actually, there is not a single drama that did not made it for its first season, but did made for its second in the last 3 years, not a single one.

    Helena feels like a lock to me.

    Yes, a lock to lose. I have been telling you that HBC and Streep are not winning any major awards for those roles, you finally believe me about Streep, now is the time to believe me about Carter as well.

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    wolfali
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    #1203574844

    Supporting Actress is one category where the winner (and our frontrunner) will totally depend on how the nominations actually come out. Who all gets in from THT and how many? Who all gets in from BLL and how many? Does McTeer also get in from Ozark? Does previous winner Newton get in? It’s such an exciting category to predict because right now, I can see a path for the win for multiple actresses, unlike Supporting Actor where it’s down to two actors and Lead Actress where it’s also down to two actresses.

    I think if both Dowd and Strahovski get in, both Streep and Dern get in, both McTeer and Garner get in and then someone like Mbatha-Raw or Snook get in along with HBC then it will solely be a two horse race between HBC and the other single nominee. I sadly don’t see a path for Newton.

    I think Strahovski is likelier for the win if only one THT actress gets in (I don’t think Dowd is going to be competitive if only she gets in). I do wonder if we’re underestimating Streep and Dern. Yes BLL missed at SAG but in the case of Dern in particular we’ve seen how apart from for The Tale in 2018 she’s been more or less winning awards despite how big her performance may have been. We saw this at the Emmys with her win for Big Little Lies and at the Oscars this year with her Marriage Story win. She is still very beloved in the industry and had a lot to do in this season of Big Little Lies and was constantly highlighted as the joint stand out with Kidman by all critics and audiences.

    Imagine (this won’t happen though) if Millie Bobby Brown got in and ended up winning because of how confusing this category is. That would be hillarious lmao.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    methaddiction
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    #1203574846

    Yes, a lock to lose. I have been telling you that HBC and Streep are not winning any major awards for those roles, you finally believe me about Streep, now is the time to believe me about Carter as well.

    Who do you think is going to win over her then?

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    DylanMcPhee
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    #1203574850

    So many of the experts have removed Laura Dern from their predictions. Seriously…? In what world? And now people are saying Helena Bonham Carter isn’t safe? I haven’t even seen The Crown but she most definitely is getting nominated. Dern, Streep and Carter are locked and bolted in this category.

    Newton was given so very little to do this year on Westworld, but given her profile in the industry, the fact she won for the role before and that snubbing her in the current landscape would look terrible, I think she is safe. However, the material for Maeve was lacking in season 3. Obviously that is not Thandie’s fault at all, but if a supporting player from Westworld deserves it this year, I personally think it’s Tessa Thompson. But it would be so great if they both got in!

    Dern and Streep for BLL, Thompson and Newton for Westworld, McTeer and Garner for Ozark, Mbatha Raw for The Morning Show and Bonham Carter for The Crown. That would be a great lineup.

    I haven’t seen THT, but I think the supporting actresses on that show are too undeniable to be shut out, so one or two of them will certainly get in as well. And one of the most deserving isn’t being predicted at all: Shailene Woodley.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1203574854

    Yes, a lock to lose. I have been telling you that HBC and Streep are not winning any major awards for those roles, you finally believe me about Streep, now is the time to believe me about Carter as well.

    You do realise The Crown literally won SAG ensemble this year and Carter got nominated for an individual SAG award right?

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    wolfali
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    #1203574857

    Who do you think is going to win over her then?

    He is predicting Julia Garner (which isn’t happening if McTeer gets nominated).

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203574878

    He is predicting Julia Garner (which isn’t happening if McTeer gets nominated).

    This is going to seem very counterintuitive, but I actually don’t think Garner and McTeer are going to affect one another. I think there are going to be people who vote for Garner no matter what, and people who vote for McTeer no matter what.

    Their performances resonate with different people for different reasons, versus a Dern and Streep situation, which would present a true Sophie’s Choice for those who know and love both actors.

     

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    wolfali
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    #1203574881

    This is going to seem very counterintuitive, but I actually don’t think Garner and McTeer are going to affect one another. I think there are going to be people who vote for Garner no matter what, and people who vote for McTeer no matter what. Their performances resonate with different people for different reasons, versus a Dern and Streep situation, which would present a true Sophie’s Choice for those who know and love both actors.

    I don’t understand you’ve more or less proved they are going to vote split?

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203574883

    Who do you think is going to win over her then?

    Someone as good as Garner, Newton and Dowd, those are the new winners, people with undeniable performances. Carter has two good episodes out of 10 and did not even created this character, it was done by Kirby, Carter followed up graciously, but she just did not had the material. Streep did not delivered what was expected of her, she did not had the ¨waw effect¨, many people hate her performance and see her as over the top. She is also not undeniable and I am predicting a complete snub for her (a risky prediction I know).

    I see as possible winners right now Garner or Strahovski.

    You do realise The Crown literally won SAG ensemble this year and Carter got nominated for an individual SAG award right?

    That makes her a lock for the nomination, not for the win.

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    wolfali
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    #1203574887

    Someone as good as Garner, Newton and Dowd, those are the new winners, people with undeniable performances. Carter has two good episodes out of 10 and did not even created this character, it was done by Kirby, Carter followed up graciously, but she just did not had the material. Streep did not delivered what was expected of her, she did not had the ¨waw effect¨, many people hate her performance and see her as over the top. She is also not undeniable and I am predicting a complete snub for her (a risky prediction I know).

    I see as possible winners right now Garner or Strahovski.

    I think the spirit of Princess Margaret wishes Vanessa Kirby created the character too.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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