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Drama Predictions (Part 14)

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203577437

    None of them did have a performance to back up a win, Garner did… but the competition is beyond tougher this time around.

    She does not need a weak field, she is strong enough on her own, this is how she managed to enter SAG with 5 spots and a combo between lead and supporting. That year she was chosen in front of Jodie Comer, Yvonne Strahovski, Ann Dowd, Alexis Bledel, Chrissy Metz, Mandy Moore, Susan Kelechi Watson, Keri Russell, Rhea Seehorn, Fiona Shaw, Keeley Hawes, Sarah Snook, Thandie Newton, Evan Rachel Wood, Oscar nominee Janet McTeer and Oscar winner Julia Roberts.

    So, is her competition really stronger than that this year? It is not. Oscar winners Laura Dern and Meryl Streep could not achieve what she did cause…. OSCARS DO NOT MATTER at all. So we only have Helena Bonham Carter managing the same feat and she is not beating Garner in a million years.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203577441

    I adore Julia, but what?

    I would chose Linney as well, just like you, but Garner would win over her if there was a voting in the Ozark Facebook page for example, I am absolutely sure about it, even if it is specified that is about acting, not comparison between characters. If the voting is done in another popular page, like Entertainment Weekly, Garner would still win. The difference between their Instagram pages post Ozark is pretty telling as well.

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    Kay
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    #1203577443

    Ozark should have submitted Marceline Hugot and Adam Lefevre in Guest categories.

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    mafro987
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    #1203577446

    I was ready to just agree to disagree until I saw someone say Garner would win over Linney. That’s delusion and clearly shows you are unable to separate Facebook mentions and fandom hype from the sensibilities of the Academy. Garner won last year in a category where 4 contenders vote split. And once again people misrepresented the core argument – McTeer will not receive more votes than Garner, but may siphon enough to allow a contender from another show to win.

    I feel like this forum isn’t particularly familiar with McTeer’s work. This is a very different role for her and she is so good in it. Everyone in the show gives these big and loud performances (Linney, Garner and Pelphrey particularly) while McTeer is more subtle, she’s on that level if you actually pay attention.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203577449

    I just find the idea that McTeer could take a sizeable portion of the vote away from Garner to be bizarre but I suppose it’s not impossible…

    This was my thinking, but I had to concede after the poll results.  Then Ozark became such a phenomenon that it is moot.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203577469

    Comer/Oh and Garner/McTeer are not really comparable for me. Garner is already awarded, there isn’t an eager to give her another award (or maybe there is, we will see). She can win another year, possibly for the final season, but I don’t think in this strong competition she will be the first thing on voters’ mind. And some of you are starting to go way overboard with Ozark’s popularity. It is not on Breaking Bad’s level at all.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203577487

    I was ready to just agree to disagree until I saw someone say Garner would win over Linney. That’s delusion and clearly shows you are unable to separate Facebook mentions and fandom hype from the sensibilities of the Academy.

    It will be great to have a discussion without conscious misquotes. I said that Garner would win in a Facebook poll versus Linney, not an Emmy versus Linney. If they were in the same category at the Emmys, they will cancel each other, this is more than obvious. However, both on Facebook and between the Academy Garner would beat McTeer effortlessly.

    The only delusion here is saying that Garner had her worst season and that she was “just there” (I know that those did not come from you).

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    mafro987
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    #1203577493

    It will be great to have a discussion without conscious misquotes. I said that Garner would win in a Facebook poll versus Linney, not an Emmy versus Linney. If they were in the same category at the Emmys, they will cancel each other, this is more than obvious. However, both on Facebook and between the Academy Garner would beat McTeer effortlessly.

    The only delusion here is saying that Garner had her worst season and that she was “just there” (I know that those did not come from you).

    We’re talking about the Emmys, not Facebook polls. The only reason why we’re discussing Facebook is because you have repeatedly used it as definitive evidence within an awards context. Ruth’s popularity online doesn’t surprise me – online audiences skew male, and Ruth is seen as a male-aligning ‘badass’ in comparison to ‘bitchy’ Wendy (who often acts in opposition to her husband). This mentality wouldn’t be nearly as present in the acting branch.

    Ironically, if Linney and Garner were competing in the same category (if we believe the idea that Ruth is a co-lead to be true), I’d be more confident in Linney overcoming a vote split with Garner than I am about Garner overcoming a vote split with McTeer.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Eden
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    #1203577499

    Since the predictions center allowed predicting eight nominees in the supporting races, 17 experts updated their predictions (with at least seven nominees). Beside the obvious frontrunners, here’s who they’re predicting for Supporting Actress:

    15 – Newton
    13 – Seehorn, Snook
    10 – Erivo
    8 – McTeer
    4 – Mbatha-Raw

    Also, Supporting Actor based on 16 experts who are predicting eight nominees:

    16 – Banks, Crudup, Culkin
    14 – Harbour
    13 – Pelphrey
    12 – Macfadyen
    7 – Esposito, O’Connor
    6 – Patinkin, Whitford
    5 – Wright

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203577501

    I think at the minute HBC will comfortably win. If someone like Fiona Shaw, Sarah Snook or Gugu Mbatha Raw are nominated, then I think they could pull off a win.

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited-
    UNBELIEVABLE, Quiz, Years and Years, Defending Jacob in all Categories
    Merritt Wever, Toni Collette, Matthew Macfadyen, Emma Thompson, Chris Evans & Michelle Dockery

    Drama-
    STRANGER THINGS, The Morning Show, Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve
    - Jennifer Aniston, VIOLA DAVIS, Jodie Comer, Sandra Oh, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman
    - FIONA SHAW, HBC

    Comedy-
    SCHITTS CREEK, Dead to Me, Sex Education
    - Catherine O’Hara, Annie Murphy, Christina Applegate, Linda Ca

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203577503

    We’re talking about the Emmys, not Facebook polls. The only reason why we’re discussing Facebook is because you have repeatedly used it as definitive evidence within an awards context.

    Yes and I still believe that is very important to know what actual fans feel about the acting in the show, I already gave the example of Comer/Oh and I was right back then. Even if you see my Facebook arguments as stupid, this does not mean that you have to merge them with what I actually think about the Emmys since I explained myself very well which proves that I am not delusional and I see that Facebook does not matter in regard of Linney/Garner results at the Emmy, but sure does about McTeer, there is no passion for her among the fandom at all, while they do have a lot of passion for Linney and they constantly praise her as everybody else.

    Ironically, if Linney and Garner were competing in the same category (if we believe the idea that Ruth is a co-lead to be true), I’d be more confident in Linney overcoming a vote split with Garner than I am about Garner overcoming a vote split with McTeer.

    Here is where we can agree to disagree.

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    Thiago
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    #1203577505

    People need to stop exaggerating everything that is said here.

    Saying that Garner benefited from a weak field and vote splitting doesn’t mean she has no passion behind her performance, just that the win needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s a completely different field, way stronger, and her biggest threats are not in a huge three way vote split (Headey was the one who deserved for the show, Willians for the season and Christie the fan favourite). I agree she might have won anyway, given she got in at SAG, but the circunstances in which she won can’t be completely ignored.

    Also, the Mcteer factor doesn’t mean it will be a a 50/50 situation. Whoever is giving HBC a run for her money has an uphill battle, since she got in at SAG, The Crown won esemble and is believed to be among the three favourites in the drama race. You can believe that Garner is ahead, but not that she is way ahead and imune to losing some votes, like Oh and Comer last year, and, if Mcteer is taking 5%-10% of her votes, that might be enought to give HBC the edge.

    And that is a logical scenario. Like people said, Mcteer is got a lot to do, arguably being the rock in Marty and Wendy’s shoes this season, literally until the last second, much like Ruth’s dad was on season 2, giving her more than in season 3. Also, it might be the last chance they have to reward Mcteer for the role, which might prompt people to do so, especially since Garner just won.

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203577507

    How can people say that Fiona Shaw and Gugu Mbatha-Raw have a chance of winning, but not Garner?

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1203577517

    I think a winners lineup of Succession (Series), Cox, Linney, Carter, Pelphrey, Bledel, Scott, Succession (writing) and The Crown (directing) – as suggested earlier – is far too obvious to actually happen. We know how these things go; there will be at least 1-2 upsets.

    I think you need to open up a dictionary and look for the definition of a frontrunner as that’s what I was predicting (not winners).

    After reading through the last 5 pages of the last drama thread, I realized that The Crown and Succession fans get very nervous whenever someone brings up the possibility of Ozark overperforming and winning a boatload of Emmys.

    I’m not even going to respond to this because of how ridiculous this comment is LMAO.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    hopelesstar
    Joined:
    Mar 10th, 2020
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    #1203577519

    People need to stop exaggerating everything that is said here.

    Saying that Garner benefited from a weak field and vote splitting doesn’t mean she has no passion behind her performance, just that the win needs to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s a completely different field, way stronger, and her biggest threats are not in a huge three way vote split (Headey was the one who deserved for the show, Willians for the season and Christie the fan favourite). I agree she might have won anyway, given she got in at SAG, but the circunstances in which she won can’t be completely ignored.

    Also, the Mcteer factor doesn’t mean it will be a a 50/50 situation. Whoever is giving HBC a run for her money has an uphill battle, since she got in at SAG, The Crown won esemble and is believed to be among the three favourites in the drama race. You can believe that Garner is ahead, but not that she is way ahead and imune to losing some votes, like Oh and Comer last year, and, if Mcteer is taking 5%-10% of her votes, that might be enought to give HBC the edge.

    And that is a logical scenario. Like people said, Mcteer is got a lot to do, arguably being the rock in Marty and Wendy’s shoes this season, literally until the last second, much like Ruth’s dad was on season 2, giving her more than in season 3. Also, it might be the last chance they have to reward Mcteer for the role, which might prompt people to do so, especially since Garner just won.

    Basically all of this. This is a very competitive category and every vote will count. The Aaron Paul comparison is also invalid because he won with a system in which being nominated with a co Star was a bonus.

    How can people say that Fiona Shaw and Gugu Mbatha-Raw have a chance of winning, but not Garner?

    As someone who thinks Gugu is underestimated for the nom I agree she won’t be win competitive at all.

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