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Drama Predictions (Part 14)

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203584628

    Or maybe they just don’t care about campaigning for already locked noms and will be really agressive in their campaign for wins.

    Yeah, I can see that. I forgot about their Oscars campaign. Surely there’s a happy medium!

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203584643

    wut

    They both play strong, foul mouthed government officials who are determined to solve their case no matter what.

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    wolfali
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    #1203584664

    I know this is the wrong place to put this but after watching the first two episodes of Stateless and re-watching her clip in Unknown Caller I really will feel so MAD if Yvonne gets snubbed this year and/or doesn’t break into the precursors and WIN ALL OF THEM for Stateless. One of the best actresses working on television today.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203584721

    I just want to echo comments from earlier about Netflix and HBO’s campaign strategy differences. It makes sense that the fact both Ozark and The Crown are locked is why Netflix isn’t campaigning a lot right now and HBO is campaigning a lot for the nominations. Last year HBO had nominations for GoT locked across the board and didn’t campaign for the show in the nominations stage as much as Netflix campaigned for both Bodyguard and Ozark (which weren’t sure things).

    This year Big Little Lies in Series and Succession in acting aren’t sure things hence why HBO is campaigning a lot for both of them. It makes more sense that Netflix isn’t as worried about incumbent SAG ensemble winner The Crown or perennial SAG nominee and incumbent Directing and Supporting Actress winner Ozark.

    I’ll tell you this though. Netflix should have been campaigning more for The Crown in Directing and Ozark in Writing because those are far from sure things (especially Cri de Coeur and All In).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    estrelas
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    #1203584739

    I I’ll tell you this though. Netflix should have been campaigning more for The Crown in Directing and Ozark in Writing because those are far from sure things (especially Cri de Coeur and All In).

    Totally agree with you on Ozark but I completely disagree with you on The Crown. Ozark hasn’t been nominated in writing for any of its two past seasons and they have THREE episodes on the ballot. The Crown, on the other hand, has been nominated twice for directing and even one the last time. “Aberfan” is locked for a directing nomination. There’s no way it misses. “Cri de Coeur” is the one on shaky ground but Netflix doesn’t need to campaign it because the other episode is already a lock. If the directors branch really loves the show then the latter will go along the way. Right now I don’t think it will because (personally) I don’t find that episode anything special but like I said it can coattail.

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    wolfali
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    #1203584745

    Totally agree with you on Ozark but I completely disagree with you on The Crown. Ozark hasn’t been nominated in writing for any of its two past seasons and they have THREE episodes on the ballot. The Crown, on the other hand, has been nominated twice for directing and even won the last time. “Aberfan” is locked for a directing nomination. There’s no way it misses. “Cri de Coeur” is the one on shaky ground but Netflix doesn’t need to campaign it because the other episode is already a lock. If the directors branch really loves the show then the latter will go along the way. Right now I don’t think it will because (personally) I don’t find that episode anything special but like I said it can coattail.

    I agree. I should have phrased myself better because I meant Cri de Coeur is on shaky ground.

    I’ll change my name to Bubbikins if Aberfan misses LMAO.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Jackson200495
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    #1203584812

    Honestly whenever I look back on this season of THT, Strahovski’s performance stands out to me way more than Dowd’s. I’m a fan of the series so I think both of them did amazingly but if I was a voter and could only choose one it’d be Strahovski.

    I think there was an article posted a while ago that said Strahovski could be competitive for the win, and while I definitely don’t think that’s the case now (I think Carter will win for sure) she could be helped by being the only Handmaid’s actress nominated, especially if both McTeer and Garner, and Dern and Streep are nominees. Vote-splitting isn’t the be all and end all of course, but as someone said before it seems like THT is starting to lose steam as far as critical support and precursors go, so having one nominee in this category instead of 2 would be more of a help imo

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    wolfali
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    #1203584824

    So I had a quick look at the combinations of award and precursor wins for shows that have won Comedy and Drama Series over the past five years.

    Drama

    Spring Series

    2015 : Game of Thrones – 2 TCA nominations 2015 (Program of the Year and Achievement in Drama) , GG nomination (2016), 2 SAG nominations (2016)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Directing, Guest Actress

    2016 : Game of Thrones – 2 SAG nominations (2017), 6 CC nominations and 1 win (2016), 2 TCA nominations 2015 (Program of the Year and Achievement in Drama), 2 GG nominations (2017)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Directing, Guest Actor

    2017: The Handmaid’s Tale – 2 SAG nominations (2017), 4 TCA nominations (New Program, Individual Achievement in Drama) and 2 wins (Program of the Year, Achievement in Drama), 2 Golden Globe wins (Drama Series and Actress), 3 CC wins (Series, Actress and S. Actress)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Guest Actress

    2019: Game of Thrones – 1 SAG nomination (Ensemble) and win (Actor) (2020), 1 TCA nomination (Program of the Year) (2019), 4 CC nominations (2020)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Writing, Directing, Directing, Directing, Guest Actress

    Winter/Autumn/Summer Series

    2018: Game of Thrones – 3 CC nominations (2018), 1 GG nomination (2018), 2 SAG nominations (2018)

    Comedy

    Spring Series

    2015: Veep – 1 TCA nomination (2015), 3 CC nominations (2015), 2 GG nominations (2016), 2 SAG nominations (2016)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing

    2016: Veep – 2 GG nominations (2017), 4 CC nominations (2017), 1 SAG nomination (Ensemble) and win (Actress) (2017),  2 TCA nominations (2016)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Writing, Writing, Directing, Directing, Directing, Guest Actor

    2017: Veep – 2 SAG wins (Actress and Ensemble) (2018), 2 TCA nominations (2017)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Writing, Writing, Directing, Directing, Directing, Guest Actress, Guest Actress, Guest Actor

    2019: Fleabag – 2 SAG nominations (Actor and Ensemble) and 1 win (Actress) (2020), 1 CC nomination (S. Actress) and 3 wins (Actress, Supporting Actor and Comedy Series), 1 GG nomination (S. Actor) and 2 wins (Series and Actress), 3 TCA wins (Program of the Year, Achievement and Individual)

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Guest Actress, Guest Actress

    Summer/Autumn/Winter Series

    2018: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel – 2 GG wins (Actress and Series), 1 CC nomination (S. Actress) and 2 wins (Actress and Series), 3 TCA nominations

    Emmys Above the Line (wins in bold) – Series, Actress, Supporting Actress, Writing, Directing, Supporting Actor, Guest Actress

     

    Now the series in the top 4 of the odds and the precursor nominations they’ve received so far :

    Spring Series –

    Better Call Saul – 3 TCA nominations (up 2 from last year)
    Ozark – …

    Summer/Autumn/Winter Series –

    The Crown – 1 TCA nomination, 1 Globe win (Actress) and 3 other nominations (Series, Actor, Supporting Actress), 1 SAG win (Ensemble) and two other nominations (Actress x2), 4 CC nominations

    Succession – 4 TCA nominations, 2 Globe wins (Series and Actor) and 1 other nomination (S. Actor), 2 CC wins (Series and Actor) and 2 other nominations (S. Actress and S.Actor)

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    #1203584953

    I have finished Succession! I’ll just go ahead and say that S2 was pretty much flawless. I didn’t love S1, I really didn’t, but what I realized was that it was a preamble to the second season, which was energetic from beginning to end. While still godawful people, the characters became so much more human, particularly in the season finale, which was the show’s quietest and subtlest hour to date. “This Is Not For Tears” is certainly magnificent, but it’s not my favorite episode of the season, as the double punch of “Tern Haven” and “Argestes” blew it out of the water. But quite honestly, there wasn’t a single weak episode this season.

    If I were an Emmy voter under this new system, I would check off Cox, Strong, Snook, Macfadyen, Hunter, Culkin and Jones for a nomination. I would only give Cox the win. I loved Snook, but she didn’t come close to what some other actresses in her category did (for the win), IMO. “DC” is a great showcase, but that’s also because of how exceptional the dialogue is on this show.

    At the Emmys, I think this is what it looks like in terms of nominations chances (in bold who I am actually predicting):

    Cox> Jones> Strong> Snook> Culkin> Macfadyen> Hunter> Cromwell> Walter> Smith-Cameron> Braun

    Whether it’s Ozark S3 or Succession S2 that claims the drama series prize, I will be happy regardless.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203584987

    I have finished Succession! I’ll just go ahead and say that S2 was pretty much flawless. I didn’t love S1, I really didn’t, but what I realized was that it was a preamble to the second season, which was energetic from beginning to end. While still godawful people, the characters became so much more human, particularly in the season finale, which was the show’s quietest and subtlest hour to date. “This Is Not For Tears” is certainly magnificent, but it’s not my favorite episode of the season, as the double punch of “Tern Haven” and “Argestes” blew it out of the water. But quite honestly, there wasn’t a single weak episode this season.

    If I were an Emmy voter under this new system, I would check off Cox, Strong, Snook, Macfadyen, Hunter, Culkin and Jones for a nomination. I would only give Cox the win. I loved Snook, but she didn’t come close to what some other actresses in her category did (for the win), IMO. “DC” is a great showcase, but that’s also because of how exceptional the dialogue is on this show.

    At the Emmys, I think this is what it looks like in terms of nominations chances (in bold who I am actually predicting):

    Cox> Jones> Strong> Snook> Culkin> Macfadyen> Hunter> Cromwell> Walter> Smith-Cameron> Braun

    Whether it’s Ozark S3 or Succession S2 that claims the drama series prize, I will be happy regardless.

    Same here (I’m also predicting Culkin at the moment because he was so good and is directly next to frontrunner Billy Crudup on the ballot!)

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    boss
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    #1203585005

    Kieran Culkin is so lucky that he randomly snagged a Golden Globe nomination for the first season, otherwise no one would predict him over Matthew Macfadyen. IMO, only Macfadyen deserves a nomination among the male supporting cast.

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    Luca
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    #1203585007

    I think the male supporting cast is just overshadowed by the two male leads and Snook. Culkin and Macfadyen are both great, especially the latter, but I fear people just don’t take them seriously as dramatic actors on this project. The nature of Culkin’s character doesn’t help him either, but he comes from a well-known family, which helped him secure those Globe noms.

    Now what I really don’t get are the predictions for Nicholas Braun. I mean, what?! They’re not going to reward someone for being weird and awkward throughout. I mean, Braun nails the role, but what would even be his Emmy clip? This?

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203585015

    But he IS directly next to frontrunner Billy Crudup on the ballot…

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    #1203585019

    frontrunner Billy Crudup

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203585021

    Pelphrey is not the frontrunner lol. I’m pretty sure y’all considered Newton frontrunner in 2017 because of her SAG nom and it’s the same here.

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