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Drama Predictions (Part 16)

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    wolfali
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    #1203598518

    If the number of votes for these nominees are replicated across the board then these will be the Gold Derby Drama Episode of the Year (counted from a sample of 100 Ballots) :

    In No Particular Order

    Aberfan, The Crown
    Fire Pink, Ozark
    This is Not For Tears, Succession
    Tern Haven, Succession
    Bagman, Better Call Saul
    Never Knew Love Like This Before, Pose

    Things Taken From Ballots :

    • This is Not For Tears is the ONLY lock here and is the clear frontrunner.
    • Ozark and The Crown could get two episodes in whilst Succession could get three.
    • Moondust doesn’t seem to have lots of love with The Crown fans generally preferring Aberfan and Twysog Cymru.
    • A MAJORITY of The Crown voters have voted for Succession in multiple categories too.
    • A LOT of Succession voters have voted for The Good Fight in multiple categories.
    • Ozark has A LOT of love in Episode of the Year.
    • A lot of Episode of the Year ballots are literally an episode of The CrownOzark and Succession.
    • There is a lot of love for Pose.
    • There is a lot of love for Euphoria.
    • There is a lot of love for the Mr Robot finale.
    • This is Us and Stranger Things are in trouble.
    • There is almost zero love for Westworld.
    • A lot of THT voters have dropped the show but it still seems to have retained quite a significant number of supporters here.
    • If the choices chosen by GD voters are at all similar to that of Emmy voters then Succession, The Crown and Ozark are definitely in the top 3 and Pose, Better Call Saul and The Morning Show are in the top 6.
    • The votes in Drama Episode of the Year are TIGHT. Potential spoilers include The Good FightBig Little Lies (Tell Tale-Hearts), the other episode of Pose, Better Call Saul (Bad Choice Road), Succession (Hunting), Ozark (All In), The Crown (Twysog Cymru), How to Get Away with Murder (Stay), Mr. Robot (407 Authentication Required) and Homeland (Prisoners of War).
    • The episodes of The Crown, Ozark, Succession have a mammoth of a total tally of votes of all their episodes.
    • Succession could go from shut out to sweep.
    • The Crown could go from niche underdog to mainstream titan.
    • Ozark is a sleeping ninja.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203598535

    “Ozark is a sleeping ninja.”

    I like that. And I hope it’s true.

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    wolfali
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    #1203598599

    So The Crown has had a 40% increase in viewership from season 2…

    https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/every-viewing-statistic-netflix-has-released-so-far-july-2020/

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    methaddiction
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    #1203598610

    So The Crown has had a 40% increase in viewership from season 2… https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/every-viewing-statistic-netflix-has-released-so-far-july-2020/

    The last four months we’ve been arguing about Succession and Ozark when The Crown is going to sweep.

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    wolfali
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    #1203598616

    The last four months we’ve been arguing about Succession and Ozark when The Crown is going to sweep.

    LMAO that would be hilarious if it actually did end up sweeping.

    Also Ozark is officially Netflix’s top English language Drama this season.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203598630

    So The Crown has had a 40% increase in viewership from season 2… https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/news/every-viewing-statistic-netflix-has-released-so-far-july-2020/

    Unless I’m missing something, that statistic for The Crown was revealed in January, per that post. Ozark had their own double-digit increase from season 2.

    I’ve been hoping Netflix would release updated viewership data alongside the Emmy nominations press release.

    Forbes did some math re: Netflix’s Top 10 metric, which admittedly isn’t perfect, but intriguing all the same: https://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbean/2020/06/27/netflix-most-popular-shows-top-10/#7fdfe6498f3c

     

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    wolfali
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    #1203598638

    Unless I’m missing something, that statistic for The Crown was revealed in January, per that post. Ozark had their own double-digit increase from season 2.

    Did I say Ozark didn’t have a double digit increase from season 2? I thought that was pretty obvious.

    Whether it was January or last week the fact The Crown has had a 40% increase in viewership from its multi above the line Emmy winning critically acclaimed second season is significant because it disproves the whole “no one watched The Crown season 3 and therefore it’s a flop” (not a direct quote) sentiment.

    FYC Emmys : THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL, SUCCESSION AND THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES. Tony Shalhoub ("Maisel"), Cate Blanchett ("Mrs. America"), Matthew Macfadyen, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook ("Succession"), Tracey Ullman ("Mrs. America") and Louis Gossett Jr. ("Watchmen")

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203598644

    Also Ozark is officially Netflix’s top English language Drama this season.

    Stranger things is still higher

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203598646

    Did I say Ozark didn’t have a double digit increase from season 2? I thought that was pretty obvious. Whether it was January or last week the fact The Crown has had a 40% increase in viewership from its multi above the line Emmy winning critically acclaimed second season is significant because it disproves the whole “no one watched The Crown season 3 and therefore it’s a flop” (not a direct quote) sentiment.

    I wasn’t trying to start anything. The article URL said “as of July,” which at first glance implies that the viewership was earned more recently. When I actually clicked on the article, I saw that the leading shows’ ratings haven’t been updated in a while — though that’s obviously up to Netflix and Nielsen.

    It would have been quite a feat if  quarantine had helped The Crown gain that much ground over the summer alone.

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    Couverture
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    #1203598994

    Also Ozark is officially Netflix’s top English language Drama this season.

    Looking at the stats from the link, aren’t The Witcher, You and Raising Dion still higher and that too considerably for the first two?

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    Tyler
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    #1203599019

    political message

    well, if it had that last year….

    (disclaimer: I haven’t watched Pose and do not claim or think that any recognition it gets is undeserved. Just wanted to point out the political climate is giving it narrative.)

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1203599166

    I certainly think that it’s factually correct to say that Menzies has more going for him than Smith had when he first competed so just because the latter failed to make it in Lead doesn’t mean the former will suffer the same fate as well.

    Yes, I agree, it is uncertain and it is more based on personal opinion than actual facts.

    This entire argument is based on personal opinions, that’s not a thing to base predictions on. Colman is universally considered inferior to Foy but she is still competitive for the win.

    She is NOT.

    Now, do they still “love” This Is Us enough to bring back Ventimiglia? did they “catch up” on Succession to give it two spots or is the The Crown still “respected” enough for Menzies to get in?

    I am going with Ventimiglia!

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    Hoster1
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    #1203599262

    Well, if people are sharing GD ballots survey results, then why not me lol. On the sample of 100 ballots the 8 highest point getters in Supporting Actor in my survey were:

    Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
    Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
    Kieran Culkin, Succession
    Tony Dalton, Better Call Saul
    Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
    Josh O’Connor, The Crown
    Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
    Tom Pelphrey, Ozark

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