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Drama Predictions (Part 2)

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    methaddiction
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    #1203399755

    Ozark winning all four acting categories would be iconic.

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    Mukund
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    #1203399757

    Nomination scenario for Succession:

    Drama Series, Writing, Directing, Casting, Sound Mixing – Locked

    Music Composition, Actor (Cox), Guest Actress – Very likely

    Actor (Strong), Supporting Actor, Editing – Could happen

    Contemporary Costumes, Production Design, Lead Actress – Long shots

    I think Succession will land around 10-11 nominations and that is good enough for it to win. I mean Fleabag also had 11 nominations which was almost half that of Maisel. Barry and Russian Doll also had more nominations.

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    Luca
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    #1203399779

    Ozark winning all four acting categories would be iconic.

    And I’d deem it absolutely possible if the TV academy hadn’t shown us in the last two years that they love to spread the wealth in the drama races. And with a crowded field, I expect the same this year.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Mukund
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    #1203399785

    Succession ain’t getting 3 acting noms.

    The last two Lead Actor Drama winners were not nominated by SAG ever so I don’t know why people act like at least Cox can’t get nominated without a corresponding SAG nom. Cherry Jones is a well known Emmy quantity and is probably getting nominated as well. Remember The Americans? That show got two lead nominations and one guest nomination (similar to what I’m predicting for Succession) for its 4th and 5th seasons with zero SAG noms. 3 acting noms are absolutely within the realm of possibility for Succession.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203399792

    I don’t see Succession getting more than 7-8 total nominations and that’s if it gets acting nominations at all. It’s almost bound to be the least nominated drama series nominee and under the current popular voting system, can it really win with such low nomination haul?

    I get where you’re coming from, I don’t think the show’s invincible. But I do believe it’s the frontrunner for a reason. The love for it’s second season is insane. I don’t think people on here will disagree with me when I say it’s the most universally acclaimed show in contention this year, and I’m including the comedy and limited series categories when I say that. It’s not the most popular show, but the enormous buzz for it is definitely getting more and more people to start watching. The passion for the show will likely result in lots of number 1 votes going it’s way. And sure, the SAG omission isn’t good, but outside of that, the show’s had a fantastic precursor run, a kind of performance that gets more people watching to see if this really is the next best thing. And let’s not forget that it has HBO backing them, which is always a big plus.

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    Snow
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    #1203399797

    Ozark winning all four acting categories would be iconic.

    And 4 deserved wins.

    FYC Emmy 2020:
    Laura Linney - Lead Actress in a Drama Series/ Julia Garner - Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.
    Catherine O'hara - Lead Actress in a Comedy Series/ Annie Murphy - Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

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    Tyler
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    #1203399799

    Succession ain’t getting 3 acting noms.

    Even though they don’t have voter crossover, we would typically assume the Globe winner and Critics choice winner are at least getting nominated (and Succession is definitely not a “Globes thing”), so I think predicting Strong and Cox isn’t naive, plus previous category-winner Cherry Jones in a prominent guest role, it makes sense.

    I think the possibility of Succession only getting Cox is very real, but I also think the possibility of it getting up to 5 acting nominees exists as well. It feels wrong to discount how hot/trendy Succession is this year, when just last year we saw nominees like Sian Clifford/Sarah Goldberg over most SNL ladies and Laurie Metcalf amongst others, plus Anthony Carrigan over Titus Burgess, Matt Walsh, and Alec Baldwin due to Fleabag and Barry being so hot.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203399834

    Agreed but I was mostly talking about the main ceremony. Even though Cox gets in, which he might, Strong isn’t a locked and we all know Snook is NOT happening. At best we have Cox and Culkin getting in… I don’t see a scenario where they get 2+ actors in the Drama field.

    Don’t act like Snook’s a lost cause. She gives a stellar performance in this year’s frontrunner and she has no chance or vote splitting.

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    Couverture
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    #1203399840

    I get where you’re coming from, I don’t think the show’s invincible. But I do believe it’s the frontrunner for a reason. The love for it’s second season is insane. I don’t think people on here will disagree with me when I say it’s the most universally acclaimed show in contention this year, and I’m including the comedy and limited series categories when I say that. It’s not the most popular show, but the enormous buzz for it is definitely getting more and more people to start watching. The passion for the show will likely result in lots of number 1 votes going it’s way. And sure, the SAG omission isn’t good, but outside of that, the show’s had a fantastic precursor run, a kind of performance that gets more people watching to see if this really is the next best thing. And let’s not forget that it has HBO backing them, which is always a big plus.

    I felt Succession’s PGA and WGA guild wins were undermined by how it got almost nothing outside of those two and DGA. Fleabag also had a low nomination ceiling but it had a terrific guild run, getting things like costumes and sound. Succession didn’t though. And that’s without mentioning the complete SAG snub. Is PGA preferential or popular vote? Because I can see it being the former.

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    Hoster1
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    #1203399852

    Mj Rodriguez had a show that barely made Drama Series lineup last year. Snook is in Drama Series frontrunner.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203399856

    Honey, Get real! she’s NOT happening, it feels like MJ Rodriguez last year. It’s just too crowded for her to have a spot.

    MJ Rodriguez wasn’t in the frontrunner/most critically acclaimed show of the entire awards season being backed by HBO.

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    Snow
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    #1203399859

    I get where you’re coming from, I don’t think the show’s invincible. But I do believe it’s the frontrunner for a reason. The love for it’s second season is insane. I don’t think people on here will disagree with me when I say it’s the most universally acclaimed show in contention this year, and I’m including the comedy and limited series categories when I say that. It’s not the most popular show, but the enormous buzz for it is definitely getting more and more people to start watching.

    Which show is the number 2 in acclaim and buzz? Watchmen?

    Now, I know that Succession is a beloved show right now and its run is much like Fleabag in terms of generated buzz, but I believe that what pushed Fleabag to take it all was Phoebe Waller-Bridge. She was the face. Succession doesn’t have a face to push it. And I get that it is hot in buzz, but I see that they already got their peak this season, so from now on I don’t see it increasing even more. Which could happen with shows airing closer to the deadline and fresher in voters mind. Also, Succession doesn’t have love in a lot of categories outside writing and maybe directing. And not even that, since its lost at DGA to Watchmen. Which, for me, is very telling and a red flag.

     

    FYC Emmy 2020:
    Laura Linney - Lead Actress in a Drama Series/ Julia Garner - Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.
    Catherine O'hara - Lead Actress in a Comedy Series/ Annie Murphy - Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203399873

    Which show is the number 2 in acclaim and buzz? Watchmen? Now, I know that Succession is a beloved show right now and its run is much like Fleabag in terms of generated buzz, but I believe that what pushed Fleabag to take it all was Phoebe Waller-Bridge. She was the face. Succession doesn’t have a face to push it. And I get that it is hot in buzz, but I see that they already got their peak this season, so from now on I don’t see it increasing even more. Which could happen with shows airing closer to the deadline and fresher in voters mind. Also, Succession doesn’t have love in a lot of categories outside writing and maybe directing. And not even that, since its lost at DGA to Watchmen. Which, for me, is very telling and a red flag.

    I’d say Watchmen is second in terms of acclaim, but I don’t know for sure. Better Call Saul has a 99% on a Rotten Tomatoes, and a 92 on Metacritic (both of which are actually higher scores than Succession), but I don’t think it’s fair to count a show that’s only about halfway through its current season, as you can’t really compare a season that’s halfway done with reviews and audience reactions still to come with seasons that have been fully released. I’m also purposely trying to ignore reviews and talk of this season of Schitt’s Creek as I only recently started watching and I don’t want to see spoilers (same thing with Ozark).

    Anyway, I don’t think Succession losing DGA to Watchmen should be held against it. Watchmen’s direction is very showy, while Succession’s is subtle, and not the kind that’s really rewarded very often. The fact that it won DGA previously and is staying in should serve as a sign of support for it. Watchmen was definitely the deserving winner, the direction’s fantastic on that show.

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    jacob121
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    #1203399964

    we all know Snook is NOT happening

    Do we?

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    forwardswill
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    #1203399971

    Took me a couple of days to get away from the influence of people on these forums but have finally screwed my head back on straight and taken Jodie Comer back out of my predictions. Can’t believe I let a good trailer and some enthusiastic users convince me.

    I’ve also put Aniston back in #1 for the time being as all the people I know that watch Ozark are talking about Pelphrey so I’m less confident that Linney isn’t just a GoldDerby and TV Twitter thing.

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