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Drama Predictions (Part 2)

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    Luca
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    #1203400577

    They’ll probably be backlash if Olivia Colman won or honestly any other actor that isn’t Laura Linney winning. Linney Emmy buzz is too strong rn to ignore

    Ok, I think this is a bit exaggerated. There might be minor backlash from people like us, but that’s about it. After all, if Colman wins, then she will have obviously been the majority of the TV academy’s choice, so I doubt there’d be any backlash at all. Also don’t forget that Colman is untouchable; she belongs to that group of actors (Regina King is another one), who isn’t allowed to be touched, as in criticized.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    forwardswill
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    #1203400652

    Curious – what makes you confident that Comer is gonna miss?

    I’m lazy and can’t bothered to write something fresh, so here’s what I wrote about 12 days ago on why I think it could happen:

    I don’t think Killing Eve is not going to uptick enough in quality. If it was an easier year I’d have her but as it is she’s such a clear Rami Malek situation to me.

    Many cite her Emmy win last year but this, to me, is flawed due to the voting systems. The winners are decided by passion but the nominations are decided by consensus. In this sense, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to discover that Comer was 6th in the nominations phase last year due to her lack of name recognition, particularly compared to her co-star and fellow nominees. But she could still win because the people who did know her, knew how good she was and that’s all that matters in a passion vote where people only get to make one selection.

    This doesn’t help her with returning for a nomination because it’s back again to consensus in a field far more dominated than it was last year. As voters can choose however many people to select as they want on their nomination ballots, then (unless you are a lock – Aniston and Colman this year) to me nominations are won by being the kind of person that *most* voters will include even if you wouldn’t be in everyone’s top 6 but just because everyone knows you’re good. It’s a flawed system due to the lack of ranking as, for example, someone ticking off Aniston because they adored her performance actually gives the same weight of support to her as they do to, say, Viola Davis whom they might select because they know she’s probably always doing great work.

    I don’t believe Comer is at the right stage of recognition yet for this to help her. Sure, people who watch or love Killing Eve will still vote for her but who else? Whereas the likes of Linney, Kidman, Davis, even Oh can get those crucial tag-on selections on name recognition alone and people like Moss, Wood, Snook and Moore can ride the wave of their shows. All Comer has is the performance. So, to me, the only way she gets enough selections is if the show can gain enough buzz – people will have either seen her and loved her or will have been reminded of how much the loved her in past seasons by the buzz. Her fellow competitors don’t need such a level of attention to be remembered.

    As such, with Killing Eve likely past its prime already and so probably only able to gather a minimal scattering of residual attention to Comer, I remain sceptical that she can make it onto enough ballots to get in.

    Hope I’m wrong.

    Um, when did people talk about Pelphrey more in their reviews?

    Um, that’s not what I said?

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    Luca
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    #1203400670

    Um, that’s not what I said?

    Yeah, you said the people that you had talked to. My bad. But maybe they’re the minority? Because Laura Linney has been the center of conversation, from what I have seen, which is totally understandable since I don’t think Pelphrey gets his big material until the second half of the season. He’s present and great in the first half, but Linney is stellar from the very beginning, which is why I don’t toally understand your argument. It’s very obvious that this is her season as Wendy is very much driving the narrative.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    forwardswill
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    #1203400672

    Yeah, you said the people that you had talked to. My bad. But maybe they’re the minority? Because Laura Linney has been the center of conversation, from what I have seen, which is totally understandable since I don’t think Pelphrey gets his big material until the second half of the season. He’s present and great in the first half, but Linney is stellar from the very beginning, which is why I don’t toally understand your argument. It’s very obvious that this is her season as Wendy is very much driving the narrative.

    Oh they definitely could be the minority, I’m just theorising. It also depends really on whether Emmy voters are more like people who watch TV all the time and in detail or are more like the general public. If it’s the latter, nothing I’m hearing yet indicates to me that Linney is our frontrunner.

    #1203400676

    They’ll probably be backlash if Olivia Colman won or honestly any other actor that isn’t Laura Linney winning. Linney Emmy buzz is too strong rn to ignore

    Guys I’m not saying there isn’t any buzz for Laura Linney (there most definitely is) but it is really naive to say things like this right now. It reminds me of when people said The Crown season 3 was undeniable for the Series trophy or when people said Meryl Streep was going to win for BLL season 2. Ozark just dropped a few days ago and we have four months to nomination day. Anything can happen.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    Couverture
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    #1203400681

    lol! Didn’t fans publicly criticize her when the season dropped? They said things like she’s playing herself, miscasted and that they should bring back the old cast.

    No lol. Noone has publicly criticised her. That’s just reaching. Noone in their right mind would say she was playing herself. If you had watched the show you would have known. And people were clamouring to bring back the old cast before the season had even aired, it was nothing to do with Colman. When the trailer dropped, everyone was amazed at how well she was able to match her voice to Foy’s.

    Anyone who has read my posts would know how I feel about Colman in The Crown but let’s bring a little bit of objectivity here rather than basing everything on the opinions of this Goldderby bubble. Colman had rave reviews for her performance and don’t come at me with the bullshit of no one wanted to criticize her after her Oscar win. She isn’t untouchable. The fans have been very positive towards her. Just check The Crown fan pages or comments on any of S3 vids. Are there some people who miss Foy? Absolutely. The fandom literally worships her. But people are still loving Colman.

    These forums were overhyping Colman from very early on. I was rebutted for suggesting the same. There’s a reason I haven’t seen her being underwhelming or being miscast be brought up almost anywhere else. I am surprised by how even some usually smart members are being not so smart when it comes to Colman.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by Couverture.
    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by Couverture.
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    hopelesstar
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    #1203400693

    The succession comparison with fleabag is flawed. Fleabag peaked at literally the right time, end of May/June. Also, you could tell it had massive passion because a lot of celebrities were talking about it (even someone like Taylor Swift). You don’t see that for Succession, only critics hyped it up. Even Euphoria got broader support than it with DiCaprio praising it.

    There is a great chance succession just says a writers show and I think it will be clear come nominations day. It won’t get all those acting noms. SAG is an indication actors didn’t discover it. And if they didn’t discover it in fall, why would they right now ?

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    Jays
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    #1203400804

    I mean it’s so obvious that Jason Bateman is tryna have his Walter White moment. Like his acting is very similar to Cranston’s.

    Not really? Bateman’s character is by far the least interesting of the main cast and he took a back seat this season to Linney. He also doesn’t act like Cranston at all lol, he plays the character pretty much the same way he plays all his characters.

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203400875

    The succession comparison with fleabag is flawed. Fleabag peaked at literally the right time, end of May/June. Also, you could tell it had massive passion because a lot of celebrities were talking about it (even someone like Taylor Swift). You don’t see that for Succession, only critics hyped it up. Even Euphoria got broader support than it with DiCaprio praising it. There is a great chance succession just says a writers show and I think it will be clear come nominations day. It won’t get all those acting noms. SAG is an indication actors didn’t discover it. And if they didn’t discover it in fall, why would they right now ?

    Yeah, it’s not like things can change in six months right?

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1203400900

    Drama Actress is Aniston vs Linney. Colman lost all the momentum as soon as she lost SAG.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203400923

    I know it’s been said but it’s only really just dawning on me how much I honestly think this year’s Drama Supporting Actress slate is the best ever quality for a Drama category I’ve seen.

    Helena Bonham Carter
    Laura Dern
    Maggie Gyllenhaal
    Maya Hawke
    Lesley Manville
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw
    Thandie Newton
    Winona Ryder
    Yvonne Strahovski
    Meryl Streep
    Shailene Woodley

    are all performances that would have easily *won* my personal award for the category last year and there are a whole bunch of others like Ann Dowd, Indya Moore, Anna Torv and Gillian Anderson that would easily be nominated in any other year.

    Whoever gets nominated by the Emmys should be bloody thankful.

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    Mukund
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    May 27th, 2018
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    #1203400927

    The Crown won ensemble and Colman would have probably won as well if HBC wasn’t nominated. No show has won at SAG when it is the only one vote-splitting in a category. A really great stat by Riley that helped me correctly predict Aniston.

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    Couverture
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    #1203400932

    Drama Actress is Aniston vs Linney. Colman lost all the momentum as soon as she lost SAG.

    Under the current voting system, the only Drama Actress winner who won SAG as well was Foy. These are not the Oscars.

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    Luca
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    #1203400948

    I know it’s been said but it’s only really just dawning on me how much I honestly think this year’s Drama Supporting Actress slate is the best ever quality for a Drama category I’ve seen. Helena Bonham Carter Laura Dern Maggie Gyllenhaal Maya Hawke Lesley Manville Gugu Mbatha-Raw Thandie Newton Winona Ryder Yvonne Strahovski Meryl Streep Shailene Woodley are all performances that would have easily *won* my personal award for the category last year and there are a whole bunch of others like Ann Dowd, Indya Moore, Anna Torv and Gillian Anderson that would easily be nominated in any other year. Whoever gets nominated by the Emmys should be bloody thankful.

    Both this and the best actress categories are just incredible. The fact that the actress categories are just so much richer than the actor races says a lot about the TV landscape. I love it.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Jays
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    #1203400953

    Ugh, I forgot all about Maya Hawke. She would never happen but she’d be such a deserving nominee. Can’t wait to see how her career unfolds.

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