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Drama Predictions (Part 3)

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203409849

    I have a suspicion voters may wait until next year to award Colman and HBC as their material this year was good but nothing too surprising or great? Perhaps McTeer and Garner are destined to split the vote? I don’t know but I am feeling a win for Janet the Giant. The stars are aligning. Everyone I know is watching the season of Ozark in quarantine and the reaction is very positive. I think it’s gonna be big.

    With Gillian Anderson in contention next year for The Crown, HBC won’t have a chance.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    Heptapod
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    #1203409862

    I think if The Crown is getting any award this year, it’ll be for HBC. Yes, she may not have been in a lot of the season, but the Academy honestly does not give two schitts about how much of the season a contender was in. They nominated guest-eligible Alec Baldwin and Zazie Beetz in supporting in 2018, and Thandie Newton spent several episodes of her winning season lying on a table. It’s really only a Gold Derby narrative that you have to be in a ton of the season to be a real contender. Like someone said earlier, it’s the Outstanding Supporting Actress, not the Supporting Actress With The Most Screen Time. If the TV Academy likes your performance a lot, they’ll give you the nomination / win. HBC also has the advantage of having one of her centric episodes at the very beginning of the season, so it’s not like viewers have to wait forever for her best material to show up.

    Newton and Garner have shots at the win, but with the declining popularity of the former’s show and the fact that the latter will probably have to contend with vote-splitting (and the fact that it just doesn’t seem like a performance that wins twice), they’re probably distantly in back. Everyone else will have to contend with vote splitting (Dern, Streep, McTeer), overcome the fact that their performance/show has no passion anymore (THT ladies), or thank their lucky stars that they made it in on a tie (MBB, Mbatha-Raw).

    Don’t overcomplicate it here. HBC is way out front.

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    John Nguyen
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    #1203409919

    Am I the only one who thinks Janet McTeer will take this if she gets in? My thinking: 1. All the other potential nominees are Emmy winners for their roles (Garner, Newton, Dowd, Dern) or for other roles (Streep, HBC). 2. She is a highly respected stage and screen actress slumming it up in the Ozarks. As Riley said in her interview she has starred in A LOT of TV work recently (Damages, The Honourable Woman, The White Queen). The fact such a pro of an actress is out there doing a GDERBY interview this early shows she wants it and will campaign. 3. She is just as good and has just as much screen time and storyline as Garner. They both have far more arc and screen time than perceived frontrunner HBC who really only has 2 episodes. Garner just won last year so they may look to award a new face from the show. Especially as anyone who watches knows its the only chance to award Janet. I think it’s between McTeer, Garner, and HBC. I have a suspicion voters may wait until next year to award Colman and HBC as their material this year was good but nothing too surprising or great? Perhaps McTeer and Garner are destined to split the vote? I don’t know but I am feeling a win for Janet the Giant. The stars are aligning. Everyone I know is watching the season of Ozark in quarantine and the reaction is very positive. I think it’s gonna be big.

    since you think Janet is going to win which episode do you think she should submit then?

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    Luca
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    #1203409934

    Don’t overcomplicate it here. HBC is way out front.

    You see, this is my exact problem with these threads. No one comes after people saying HBC is a surefire lock and that we shouldn’t overcomplicate things. Yet if I said that about, for instance, Yvonne, everyone would start coming after me for saying sth like “don’t overcomplicate it.” This race isn’t HBC and no one else. Last year everyone said Sandra Oh was unbeatable, and although we all knew the performance wasn’t there, we bought into it. I’m not saying the performance isn’t there for HBC, but she still has competition – a lot in fact. Her performance isn’t so undeniable that no one will be able to touch her. I know you aren’t saying that per se, but so many others are. Also, I get that her SAG nom is all-important, but it doesn’t buy your ticket to an Emmy win (Patty Clarkson says hello).

    Vote-splitting is real and all, but that doesn’t mean Garner can’t repeat (she still has the more dynamic role and gives a flashier performance); we don’t even know if Streep and Dern will face each other (in which case one of them might just be competitive for the win); and Handmaid’s might still be competitive too if only Strahovski gets in (Dowd has already won, so I doubt they’d go back to her). I agree that HBC is in a good position to win, but we’re not overcomplicating anything by suggesting that she has competition. And frankly, some of us – God forbid – don’t think she deserves it.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203409944

    Who feels like reading for a while? Continuing that discussion about The Morning Show, I have really come around to it as a contender in Outstanding Drama Series and actually rank it fourth now, behind only the win-capable The Crown, Ozark and Succession.

    First of all, I put immense stock in its SAG performance. People have bemoaned its ensemble snub, but I do not consider that a snub. Not only has SAG infamously snubbed the debuts of the likes of Homeland and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, but for a first-year show, all that you really need to do is get your foot in the door to prove yourself and The Morning Show went beyond that. The only SAG nomination that This is Us got right out of the gate was a nomination for Sterling K. Brown and he did not even win. This translated at the Emmys to seven acting nominations, including two wins, plus it was followed up at SAG with consecutive ensemble wins. The only SAG nomination that Mr. Robot got out of the gate was Rami Malek, which it again did not even win, but then he did win at the Emmys and the show got a series nomination. Even if you get nothing at SAG (even the year after), you can still win a lead Emmy and get your show into series, as Billy Porter proved with Pose. Not only did Jennifer Aniston get a nomination, but she actually won—and the show took multiple slots on the actor side, which nobody saw coming. The Morning Show was indeed rejected by the other guilds, although it was ineligible for several of them, but I am counting the acting branch as fully on board and that alone can carry a show at the Emmys, as we have seen with This is Us.

    People have compared The Morning Show to Empire, but Empire has never gotten a single SAG nomination, even with its release earlier in the year and massive visibility. People have also pointed to the poor reviews for The Morning Show, but the academies have been caring less about that in recent years. We saw this at the Oscars with Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book and Vice all being huge players in the same year and we have seen it at the Emmys as House of Cards had the worst-reviewed season ever nominated for Outstanding Drama Series, then they doubled down and gave the final season of Game of Thrones a record-tying number of wins. Though The Morning Show might be as soapy as Empire, it has considerably more prestige, being the most expensive season of a continuing series in television history and with how it dealt with topical issues in every damn episode.

    But more than any of the above, I believe in The Morning Show because it is on an upward trajectory. The drama field this year is not competitive like it was a few years ago when everybody was really passionate about that quintet of five dramas that debuted together; it is competitive with shows that used to be competitive and we are now all just trying to figure out who has enough fumes left to pull off one final nomination. Whatever gets in out of Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Pose, Stranger Things, This is Us and Westworld will just be lucky to be nominated because this is probably the last time, based on their trajectories and the normal patterns of Emmy inertia.

    The thing about awards trajectory and inertia is that you go up until you peak and then you go down until you are forgotten. Some shows end early enough that they peak at the end and never see a decline and of course there is an exception like Homeland every several years, but the general rule applies generally. There is talk about how Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Pose, Stranger Things, This is Us and Westworld fared at the guilds because that is where we saw them all last in terms of awards. But these are all shows that are past their peaks. Maybe Killing Eve is still peaking and maybe Westworld is in a good position to recover, but these shows are actively on the decline for the most part. They are not in the position that Downton Abbey and House of Cards were for years in the middle, chugging along with consistent support and picking up a win here or there without taking series. You could argue that The Crown and maybe even Ozark are in that position now. The pack of Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Pose, Stranger Things, This is Us and Westworld are largely shows that peaked very early and people are not nearly as excited about now.

    So it is great that they were wherever they were down the hill when they checked in for the guilds, but when we check in next for the Emmys, they will have slid more. Sometimes, the calendar works out so that the Emmys drop a contender first and then the guilds follow suit and it is the reverse other times; it is rare that we do not have a simple ^ course. So at best, these shows are going to barely pick up what they did at the guilds (or would have, accounting for slots and eligibility), which was not great already. The Morning Show meanwhile is on the rise. We saw it rising even between the SAG nominations when it was snubbed for ensemble and the ceremony where it pulled off a win. Conversely, I wonder if voting had been later if Big Little Lies would have gotten nominated at all. It was clearly running out of steam with how Nicole Kidman was snubbed. The same applies to Critics’ Choice where The Morning Show was only able to get one nomination because the critics hated the early episodes, then they finished the season and liked it enough to make that nomination a win. Visibility is obviously going to be better for the Emmys, given how few people even knew what Apple TV+ was during guild voting. So I feel much better about betting on something with momentum that is growing and clearly has potential, as opposed to trying to figure out what has just enough juice left to hold on or is slipping slower than their neighbour. The Morning Show really has the opportunity here to leapfrog most of the field.

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    Couverture
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    #1203409953

    I know you aren’t saying that per se, but so many others are.

    I assure you this site would never say that.

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    Luca
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    #1203409959

    Please. In fact, I remember exactly how someone told me that I was being ridiculous for not thinking she deserves it.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Couverture
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    #1203409974

    A person is not a ‘lot of others’ sksksksk. It’s like that troll who was going after Colman for being publicly criticised after reading something on the net. We need to stop generalising based on a person or two.

    Who feels like reading for a while? Continuing that discussion about The Morning Show, I have really come around to it as a contender in Outstanding Drama Series and actually rank it fourth now, behind only the win-capable The Crown, Ozark and Succession.

    Finally someone with brains!

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203409994

    Yeah I’m more and more convinced The Morning Show is getting in Series aswell. It lacks the WGA nom  and win This Is Us got for its first season but actors love it a lot. And the Empire comparison is ridiculous. Not the same star power at all, network bias, and its topic was way less attractive for The Academy.

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    jacob121
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    #1203410002

    but that doesn’t mean Garner can’t repeat

    I think this is actually the frontrunner that we shouldn’t be overthinking.

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    Tyler
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    #1203410006

    we have seen it at the Emmys as House of Cards had the worst-reviewed season ever nominated for Outstanding Drama Series, then they doubled down and gave the final season of Game of Thrones a record-tying number of wins.

    to be devils advocate, both those series had already established themselves as Emmy favorites and were critically-praised shows at one point. Including these two past their peak shows makes an argument that Westworld, The Handmaids Tale, or Big Little Lies will stay in despite being considered pretty average, rather than a new show with little critical support (I can’t think of a first season show with reviews as bad as TMS that got into series).

    I think the Morning Show could be more like Ozark season one. A poor-reviewed show that makes a slight impact (bigger than anticipated) but isn’t a top 4 player/ barely scrapes into series (if it does at all).

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    Kelvin
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    #1203410009

    Yet if I said that about, for instance, Yvonne, everyone would start coming after me for saying sth like “don’t overcomplicate it.”

    I’m sure you understand why this comparison is extremely flawed. Yvonne will struggle to get the nomination, so saying “don’t overcomplicate it, Yvonne is winning” would just be ridiculous, while multiple factors indicate that HBC is actually the frontrunner.

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    estrelas
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    #1203410017

    Please. In fact, I remember exactly how someone told me that I was being ridiculous for not thinking she deserves it.

    I think that person was me. But i didn’t say you were ridicolous to think she didn’t deserve to win. I said it was bit ridicolous to say that she shouldn’t even be in contention because you replied to someone, i don’t remember who it was, saying that for you she wouldn’t be a contender. To wich i replied saying that was a bit ridicolous. Sorry for the messy reply.

    Just to make things clear, i never meant to be disrespectful in any way.

    FYC Emmys:

    THE CROWN

    Jane Lapotaire (Drama Guest Actress)
    Helena Bonham Carter (Drama Supporting Actress)
    Josh O'Connor (Drama Supporting Actor)
    Olivia Colman (Drama Actress)
    Tobias Menzies (Drama Actor)
    Charles Dance (Drama Guest Actor)

    KILLING EVE

    Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh (Drama Actress)
    Fiona Shaw (Drama Supporting Actress)
    Evgenia Dodina (Drama Guest Actress)
    Sean Delaney (Drama Guest Actor)

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    forwardswill
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    #1203410021

    I’d love to see Bonham Carter win. She so rarely wins major awards and she acts circles around some of the favourites on this forum.

    I also agree that she probably has to be consider the frontrunner for now but I don’t think she’ll win in the end. I actually think the category is one of those ones where it will become obvious who is winning once we have the nominations and know how many Ozark, Handmaids, BLL actresses are competing against each other and whether there’s any surprises. For example, if she’s able to get nominated I’d go all in on Gugu Mbatha-Raw winning this.

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    Luca
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    #1203410023

    I just watched episode 9 of Ozark and this has got to be Linney’s year. Her work all season long, but in this episode in particular, is probably some of the best acting work I have seen all year. That entire episode broke my heart into pieces, mainly due to her performance. Also, how could they not nominate Tom Pelphrey? He has to be in, and he has to be competitive for the win. Whether he chooses episode 8 or 9, what he did was more impactful than anything I’ve seen from anyone in the supporting actor race. I’ve said my piece on Garner already (she might really repeat), but I will have to make room for McTeer because her presence is too magnetic. The entire main cast will be nominated. And the show, for me, just cemented itself as the best one in the running for drama series (I haven’t seen Succession S2 yet). It deserves the world for this third season, which has honestly turned the tide, coming from someone who was mildly entertained by the first two outings.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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