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Drama Predictions (Part 3)

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    boss
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    #1203414577

    I think Viola can take the Lead Actress.

    She certainly can be nominated, but no way I see her winning regardless of her performance.

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    John Nguyen
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    #1203414605

    From the indiewire review it seem like Jodie should be competing in the supporting category. She doesn’t have that much material till the 5th episode

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    Tyler
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    #1203414610

    You mean Oh? The indiewire review literally said that Eve took a backseat to Villanelle:

    No matter the reason, Eve isn’t just kept in the back of the restaurant — she’s taken a backseat in the show. Villanelle even gets a standalone episode at the season’s midway point, right after Eve’s most substantial moment yet.

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203414612

    So last year in Drama the priorities for the actors were: Game of Thrones, Killing Eve, Ozark, Better Call Saul, House of Cards, This is Us in that order? They all got all their lead contenders in. Only the former three were able to get someone into Supporting Actress with GOT domination meaning Ozark could not get its second supporting actress in nor could BCS or TIU get anyone (so McTeer, Seehorn, Keluchi Watson, Metz missed out). Then all of them that had viable Supporting Actor contenders (so not Killing Eve or Ozark) got someone in but GOT, BCS and HoC filled up the slots too much for This is Us to get Justin Hartley in alongside Chris Sullivan. EDIT: It is arguable that McTeer was not actually a viable contender last year in which case Ozark can be ranked ahead of Killing Eve, which probably makes more sense

    I predicted Peter Mullan and Janet McTeer last year in anticipation of a strong Ozark showing, then I actually watched the season after nominations came out and it did not surprise me in hindsight that they were snubbed. Neither deserved a nomination, so I just think now that they were simply not part of the ticket. I similarly doubt that the line for Killing Eve extended to Kim Bodnia. Game of Thrones, followed by Killing Eve and Ozark, seem to have been the top priorities last year. It is pretty hard to tell after that. Better Call Saul, House of Cards and This is Us all got all of their leads nominated. Better Call Saul and This is Us both got into guest without any major guest snubs, but neither got a supporting actress nominated. This is Us did not get Justin Hartley nominated, but it is hard to say if he was actually part of the ticket or if slap-the-stud is just too strong in a category that routinely defaults to Jim Carter, Mandy Patinkin and Jon Voight.

    This brings me to supporting actor this year. I have the major contenders from the top-tier shows in (Billy Crudup, Josh O’Connor, Tom Pelphrey), which leaves. I am counting Big Little Lies as next in line for the acting branch, but I think that support for the show has softened enough that it is in the position that Killing Eve and Ozark were in last year, getting just its key players nominated as opposed to getting everyone remotely in contention nominated, like Game of Thrones last year. So I have Adam Scott and Alexander Skarsgård in the Kim Bodnia and Peter Mullan position as non-factors. I have The Handmaid’s Tale next in line for the acting branch, but again, only key players, so yes to Bradley Whitford, but no to Joseph Fiennes. Then I have Stranger Things and I am not confident about that position, but even if Stranger Things is actually not an acting branch priority at all, David Harbour stands a good chance at transcending that anyway, given his individual SAG nomination. I have Jonathan Banks rounding out the category because I still have Better Call Saul getting into series, following in the footsteps of Tituss Burgess’s trajectory opposite Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Mandy Patinkin was tempting because this is the final season, but it has been years since he was nominated, he had an inconsistent nomination track record anyway, Homeland is obviously not getting into series or lead and the acting branch has been less sentimental about final seasons of former favourites lately anyway.

    As bad as it is that SAG dropped This is Us from ensemble this year, we have to remember that Better Call Saul was ineligible this year and there is no way that it would have gotten back into ensemble. The last time that Better Call Saul competed at SAG and was nominated, This is Us won, so there is definitely a case to be made that This is Us is a higher priority than Better Call Saul, so I could easily Chris Sullivan bumping Jonathan Banks. I know that nobody here would agree with decision by the academy, but the academy clearly thinks differently than we do, given how they nominated Sullivan at all and over Hartley too, so we are not the best judges here. Predicting Sullivan over Banks would also be consistent with how I have Sterling K. Brown edging out Bob Odenkirk for the last slot in lead actor. Sullivan is also one of those surprise nominations that we see every few years that comes so out of left field that we dismiss it as a fluke only for them to come back the next year, like Niecy Nash in Getting On.

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    Luca
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    #1203414615

    I think Viola can take the Lead Actress.

    In a just world, yes. In the real world, no.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Luca
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    #1203414626

    If Chris Sullivan gets a second nom before Justin Hartley gets his first, I’m going to throw my remote at the TV.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    supermalt
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    #1203414640

    She won’t compete at all, in fact she’s very disposable. They snubbed her for the first season, S2 was hot and buzzy, now that critics are trashing the show I highly doubt it returns for series and the two actresses can’t just make it with their show flopping with critics. Comer is getting Rami Malek’s treatment and Oh was always a question mark that can disappear now.

    Who’s going to take her place? She’s getting in.

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    boss
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    #1203414643

    This brings me to supporting actor this year. I have the major contenders from the top-tier shows in (Billy Crudup, Josh O’Connor, Tom Pelphrey), which leaves. I am counting Big Little Lies as next in line for the acting branch, but I think that support for the show has softened enough that it is in the position that Killing Eve and Ozark were in last year, getting just its key players nominated as opposed to getting everyone remotely in contention nominated, like Game of Thrones last year. So I have Adam Scott and Alexander Skarsgård in the Kim Bodnia and Peter Mullan position as non-factors. I have The Handmaid’s Tale next in line for the acting branch, but again, only key players, so yes to Bradley Whitford, but no to Joseph Fiennes. Then I have Stranger Things and I am not confident about that position, but even if Stranger Things is actually not an acting branch priority at all, David Harbour stands a good chance at transcending that anyway, given his individual SAG nomination. I have Jonathan Banks rounding out the category because I still have Better Call Saul getting into series, following in the footsteps of Tituss Burgess’s trajectory opposite Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Mandy Patinkin was tempting because this is the final season, but it has been years since he was nominated, he had an inconsistent nomination track record anyway, Homeland is obviously not getting into series or lead and the acting branch has been less sentimental about final seasons of former favourites lately anyway.

    I actually have Mandy Patinkin over Bradley Whitford because I think Homeland is like Girls of the drama category. Girls was also initially a player for series  but eventually became a nonstarter for major categories though Academy has never dropped with nominations for Driver and guest actors, so it was always somehow present.  I see that Homeland was never dropped fully from  above the line categories despite losing its status as a contender for series and lead actress. You previously said that you are yet to see the third season of The Handmaid’s Tale and I can tell you that Bradley Whitford isn’t a series regular like Yvonne Strahovski but more like Samira Wiley.

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    methaddiction
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    #1203414645

    Bradley Whitford will be nominated regardless because he’s Bradley Whitford.

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    Luca
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    #1203414649

    I can tell you that Bradley Whitford isn’t a series regular like Yvonne Strahovski but more like Samira Wiley.

    Huh? He had even more screen time than Fiennes in S3.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203414657

    I think Viola can take the Lead Actress.

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    estrelas
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    #1203414678

    She won’t compete at all, in fact she’s very disposable. They snubbed her for the first season, S2 was hot and buzzy, now that critics are trashing the show I highly doubt it returns for series and the two actresses can’t just make it with their show flopping with critics. Comer is getting Rami Malek’s treatment and Oh was always a question mark that can disappear now.

    Reviews may be a bit mixed so far but every single one has acclaimed Jodie’s performance. She’s getting in. Also Jodie’s character is WAY more flashier than Rami’s.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by estrelas.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by estrelas.

    FYC Emmys:
    Jane Lapotaire, The Crown (Drama Guest Actress)
    Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown (Drama Supporting Actress)
    Josh O'Connor, The Crown (Drama Supporting Actor)
    Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve (Drama Supporting Actress)
    Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh, Killing Eve (Drama Actress)
    Evgenia Dodina, Killing Eve (Drama Guest Actress)

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    boss
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    #1203414691

    Huh? He had even more screen time than Fiennes in S3.

    Yvonne Strahovski is clearly the standout supporting actress with her scenes in fact among all the supporting players; no one ,except Moss, gets to have material like her. I don’t think The Handmaid’s Tale has enough steam to carry Whitford into supporting field with his character just being present and nothing else, even his character’s wife had more scenes that can justify a (guest) nomination. This situation is like how Fiona Shaw is destined to be snubbed this year.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203414693

    This brings me to supporting actor this year.

    Completely agree with your analysis. Fairly sure the only place we differ is that I personally don’t see how The Morning Show can max out without Mark Duplass but I do understand why you’re sticking to your younger regular male actor theory with that one.

    Frankly, the only thing giving me a true headache in the acting categories at the moment is Succession. All of the other shows I have been pretty much jumble today into an order that I think the Emmys will favor them in but this one show is just so up in the air for me. I could see it getting just its key two into Lead Actor but at the same time it seems so weird for it to be able to do that (and knock out contenders from either This is UsWestworld, Better Call Saul or maybe even The Morning Show) but not be able to get any other acting nominations elsewhere due to those shows. Very tempted to predict Sarah Snook or one of the Supporting Actors in the equivalent way to how Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer being such key contenders for Killing Eve last year managed to bring along Fiona Shaw for the ride and make her viable.

    PS: Don’t look at my predictions in the center. Not updating them as holding onto big odds whilst I decide what on earth I’m doing.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203414709

    I bet none of y’all predicted Malek’s snub. There are a lot of contenders to replace last year Emmy winner Jodie Comer, just like there were a lot to replace Malek.

    Exactly. I mean Drama Actress has 9 contenders that have previously been Emmy nominated for their roles plus Olivia Colman and Jennifer Aniston in locked positions and Sarah Snook and Reese Witherspoon as potential surprises if their shows do well. Of course there’s people ready to take Comer’s slot.

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