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Drama Predictions (Part 4)

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    John Nguyen
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    #1203417001

    I remember Laura stans  use that photo shoot gif to death during the Laura Oscar  buzz

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    24fanatic
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    #1203417016

    This is a tough year to predict Drama Series. I’m going to assume the Emmys would prefer their past favorite series (Stranger Things, This Is Us, Westworld) over a new one (The Morning Show) with mixed review from a brand new streaming service (Apple+).

    I think the fact that it comes from a new service that has yet to produce a lot of quality content (Apple shows have been consistently receiving mixed to poor reviews) really hurts The Morning Show’s chances. Yes, all the Apple money will go to an Emmy campaign, but will it pay off?

    While I believe the show might come up short in Drama Series, I do think the actors will be recognized from The Morning Show… maybe even more so than some other series. Right now I’m currently predicting Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, Billy Crudup and a surprise nom for Mark Duplass.

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    Luca
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    #1203417109

    Please bear with me (our new go-to saying here):

    The reason why I have Handmaid’s firmly in is because – dare I say – I think the TV academy genuinely likes the show. There was, realistically, no need to give it all those nominations last year, least of all writing and directing. They could have given those to drama series nominees This Is Us, Pose or Bodyguard (directing) if they really wanted to, if they really didn’t want to reward THT. The thing is: they do. In fact, in the nominations phase they are seemingly checking it off, as well as in certain categories for the win (guest). I don’t want to say that people here are blinded by their hatred of the show as that would be dismissive and unfair, but I do feel like people sometimes forget just how many nominations this show has racked up the past three years. I’m not even talking wins, merely nominations! I don’t think it would go beyond 3-4 wins in any scenario, but I could still see it getting a boatload of noms, especially since they’ll probably check it off once more. What it also has is branch-wide support, and regardless of how it does above the line, it’s going to do well below the line because it’s an unimpeachable visual masterpiece, I think we can all agree.

    The third season wasn’t its best, but it aired a long time ago, which might benefit it in that voters have probably seen the entire season. And “Liars” and “Mayday” – two of the show’s most acclaimed outings – aired at the very end.  Ending the season on a high note is important. Some of its guild misses are worrisome, but then I realized (as I’ve said before) that “Watchmen” took up slots that are now open, as did “Game of Thrones,” which isn’t even eligible. So, are the guilds really indicative of anything else than that “Succession” and “The Crown” are coming on strong? Nope. Handmaid’s still racked up about 10 guilds citations and even reclaimed ASC (which may or may not have gone to “The Crown” had it been eligible, but I doubt it as “Night” was a stellar showcase for Watkinson).

    The arguments that have been put forth against it are compelling and reasonable – though I still don’t buy the audience score argument – but I think that its competition is also going to help it get in. Why? Outside of Succession, The Crown, Ozark and Better Call Saul (I presume) nothing is a lock, right? There you have it. The category is still pretty wide open. I think it has much more going for it than “The Morning Show” (THT at least boasted support from more than just actors in its guilds run), “Killing Eve” and “This Is Us” (I’m not going to mention “Pose” since I don’t think it’s stands much of a chance at all) and might be in a similar position like “Big Little Lies” and “Westworld,” as the former’s season was seemingly not too well received (I might be wrong and would like to be) while the latter is losing buzz by the week, but might still sweep the below-the-line races and overperform like every single damn year.

    If I weren’t worried about THT’s chances, I wouldn’t post so much about it, so I’m obviously concerned. But I don’t want to pretend like it has no chance at all, and obviously others have also combatted that belief.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Tyler
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    #1203417130

    There was, realistically, no need to give it all those nominations last year, least of all writing and directing. They could have given those to drama series nominees This Is Us, Pose or Bodyguard (directing) if they really wanted to, if they really didn’t want to reward THT.

    This is true, but also all those shows were very weak, so Handmaids getting into directing over Pose does not equate to it getting in over say Stranger Things or Better Call Saul this year (but it very much could).

    Why? Outside of Succession, The Crown, Ozark and Better Call Saul (I presume) nothing is a lock, right? There you have it. The category is still pretty wide open

    We’ve all been saying this for months now, and this is also why I’m so exhausted with the drama discussion already because it’s just going to be circles of Handmaids vs BLL vs ST vs Westworld vs TMS for the next four months. Yes, we all agree those last three slots are question marks,  and yes, the point has been made for all of them to over or underperform. There is not going to be a “aha!” moment before July 28 that makes it clear that one of these shows is for sure missing and another is for sure in (unless maybe Westworld has a terrible back half).

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    Luca
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    #1203417148

    This is true, but also all those shows were very weak, so Handmaids getting into directing over Pose does not equate to it getting in over say Stranger Things or Better Call Saul this year (but it very much could).

    Sure. I actually think “Stranger Things” is somewhere in 7th-10th place. It’s being underestimated. But at the same time I’m not going to consider it as much as I have in past years.

    We’ve all been saying this for months now, and this is also why I’m so exhausted with the drama discussion already because it’s just going to be circles of Handmaids vs BLL vs ST vs Westworld vs TMS for the next four months. Yes, we all agree those last three slots are question marks, and yes, the point has been made for all of them to over or underperform. There is not going to be a “aha!” moment before July 28 that makes it clear that one of these shows is for sure missing and another is for sure in (unless maybe Westworld has a terrible back half).

    Haha, yup. It’s going to be a looong season. But don’t worry, things will get interesting once the ballots are released and we can rant about submissions, lol.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Heptapod
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    #1203417151

    I do think Handmaid’s getting into directing before Pose does mean a lot though. When you’ve got Ryan Murphy’s name on the ballot and you’re skipped over, that’s significant. Shows a lack of support for your show that the directors don’t want to just check his name off. Remember that they gave Murphy a win just the year prior, and the last time that one of his shows was nominated for Series without him getting a directing nod was AHS: Asylum (Coven doesn’t count because he was already nominated for The Normal Heart that year). So while it may not seem big that Daina Reid got in over Pose, it’s much bigger when you look at it through the context that she got in over Ryan Murphy.

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    Luca
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    #1203417164

    Thank you for this addition, I forgot to mention that Murphy was on the ballot for “Pose.” And this really says A LOT about Killing Eve’s directing nom as well, since the director is an unknown Swiss director who snuck in despite the directing branch generally gravitating toward bigger names. So both Daina Reid and Lisa Brühlmann’s inclusions are pretty big.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Tyler
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    #1203417166

    Hoow do DGA/WGA submissions work? Are they the same style as the Emmys, or can we attribute Westworld missing those nominations in 2019 to actual weakness and not use the over-submitting excuse like the Emmys? It lost a directing slot that year to the Americans and Homeland, that seems like branch weakness.

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203417186

    Every series can only submit once in WGA Series, so Westworld missing there is definitely branch weakness. WGA Episodic is determined by panels and the nominations are always quite random, so that does not correlate to branch strength.  At both WGA and DGA, we routinely see nominations for episodes not submitted at the Emmys, which makes me think that everyone is just submitting themselves and there is no strategy trickling down from the networks or showrunners.  It does not appear that networks and studios are even allowed to submit on behalf of individuals. With everything in contention, everything is prone to vote-splitting, which means that it is a level playing field, so nobody is.  The DGA actually seems more prone to multiple-nominating a show than the Emmys.  So I would say that Westworld was genuinely snubbed, although they would have stood a better chance with Jonathan Nolan’s name. Not like Succession and The Handmaid’s Tale were unable to pass the baton after their pilot directors left though.

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    forwardswill
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    #1203417225

    I’ve considered it, and I think it’s possible, but even though the categories weren’t very full last year, it getting those writing/directing nominations and guest wins makes me think that it still has strong enough support. However, due to this season being its worst received, and not having the future season coming out around voting, I think it’s gonna be its weakest year in terms of nominations and wins.

    This is where I stand on the show at the moment.

    If I weren’t worried about THT’s chances, I wouldn’t post so much about it, so I’m obviously concerned. But I don’t want to pretend like it has no chance at all, and obviously others have also combatted that belief.

    Have only quoted a small bit because it’s easier but this argument was so great and eloquently told. Sure I disagree with some of it (I think the show will benefit more from people not watching it than doing so) but I like that it didn’t need to fire shots at anyone to express anything. In particular, I really agree with the fact that after the obvious top 3 it really is a crap shoot so to rule out any of The Handmaid’s Tale, Westworld, Stranger Things, The Morning Show, Big Little Lies, This is Us, Better Call Saul, Killing Eve  and Pose *completely* doesn’t really make sense. Especially when all bar one of them are former series nominees/winners and the one that isn’t just exploded at SAG. Of course, we all have to take our guesses at what is and isn’t going to land (I think most agree it won’t be Pose) but that doesn’t mean that we need to make anyone feel ridiculous for predicting any of them.

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    Luca
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    #1203417277

    I think the show will benefit more from people not watching it than doing so

    Fair enough, but I do think the final three episodes offer a great conclusion to a rocky season. You sort of see why the needed to build up storylines for quite a bit to have this satisfying payoff. The problem really was that the buildup wasn’t always all that great, which resulted in tough sits like “Heroic,” which unfortunately ends up being one of the most important eps of the season and probably Moss’s submission – though I’d personally advise submitting something else.

    Thanks your nice comment though 🙂

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203417320

    Over the past few years we have seen multiple categories getting more nominees than required and I think it’s going to be the same this year, even more so.

    Last year people debated which shows between Succession, Pose, Bodyguard and Homecoming would get the last drama spots. Ultimately they all got in except Homecoming even with a really weak performance overall (Pose getting only Porter in the main ceremony and Bodyguard getting only writing). And I think we are gonna see something similar this year. Out of all THT, BLL, Westworld, The Morning Show, Stranger Things and Killing Eve, I wouldn’t be surprised if they all end up nominated except for the last one I mentioned.

    Due to the diversity and vast TV offering, no one is watching the same shows anymore. GoT was able to win all those years not only because it was a phenomenon, but because it was a show that was seen and loved by every branch of the academy (it’s debatable for actors but it still got all those Dinklage wins). This year, no show seems to have that broad support except maybe The Crown. I’m not saying The Crown is winning, but my point is it’s  hard for us to form a concensus 6/7 shows because everything seems to have pros and cons (some more than others for sure), and it’s going to be the same for voters. Everyone is simply going to vote for what they loved/have watched even more so in a year with minimal campaigning/consulting happening.

    Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Drama nominees are simply all : The Crown, Succession, Ozark, Better Call Saul, Big Little Lies, The Handmaid’s Tale, The Morning Show, Westworld and Stranger Things.

    The inclusion of Stranger Things might seem weird, but some of us here gave arguments over the past few days for why it could happen. It fits the criteria of being popular, strong SAG showing, residual love from past seasons and no controversy/mediocre reviews. It’s simply a show voters will see on their ballots and check it off because why not.

    And as Pose and Bodyguard showed, you don’t need to be “strong” to get in anymore. Aniston and Crudup justify alone a nom for TMS, Moss and maybe writing/directing jutify a nom for THT, Kidman and Dern/Streep for BLL etc…

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    RCS
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    #1203417333

    Too bad the Emmys have outright rejected CBS All Access and The Good Fight, because the season four premiere is outstanding. Specifically, it’s one of Christine Baranski’s very best acting showcases from all 11 seasons. If the Emmys taking to the show would’ve happened, it would’ve been last year, when the buzz and the promotional FYC were at their prime. Maybe the detachment from trying to appease Emmy voters allows it to make more daring choices, like they did with this premiere. Overall, it’s so clever and poignant, and even reminiscent of Fight’s pilot. I hated the cliffhanger from the season three finale, so I couldn’t be more thrilled with the way they resolved it.

    Also, I agree with a lot of everything Luca said about The Handmaid’s Tale. It’s in a stronger position than what people are giving it credit for. Secretly, I think a lot of people are rooting against it and other female-led shows, like Big Little Lies and The Morning Show, and trying to exploit them as vulnerable contenders. People act as though Handmaid and BLL had bigger falls from grace than shows like Killing Eve and Westworld. The Handmaid’s Tale earned 11 nominations for a year without a season, and won both guest acting categories. It’s in good shape.

    Twitter: @rcs818

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    Luca
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    #1203417372

    Something that’s been bugging me about Ozark S3 is how we’ve talked about Linney, Garner, McTeer and Pelphrey’s chances, but we’ve barely touched on Bateman’s. Ironically, he might, however, be in the best position to win of any Ozark cast member this year. I see him possibly taking it whether Succession overperforms or not. If it overperforms, then I expect to see Cox and Strong nominated, which would most likely result in a vote-split. If it underperforms and only one of Cox or Strong makes it, then that’s a sign of weakness, in which case I don’t see how either one pulls off a win. Bateman was most likely in second place last year, and for some time was probably the front-runner before Billy Porter (deservedly) just stole everyone’s thunder. Let’s not forget that Bateman had just pulled off a SAG win, which may not resulted in an Emmy win last year, but perhaps this year. He was the first actor to get nominated for Ozark, and he even won last year for his direction last year, so it’s obvious to me that they love his involvement in this project.

    Of course, I’d argue that Bateman had more to do in the first two seasons while the women were in charge this year, but he was still solid enough, if not great. Personally, I have Linney and Pelphrey winning for the show (it depends on whether the latter is nominated), but if Bateman becomes the front-runner in drama actor, I don’t see both Linney and Pelphrey taking it – not in this competitive field. My hope is that they ultimately give it to the MVP of the season, which for me was undoubtedly Linney – much like it was Garner last year.

    I see some people slotting in Tobias Menzies in #2, and while he was my personal MVP for The Crown S3, I can’t remember the last time a subtle performance as such won. Plus, he’s just barely a lead – but I guess that didn’t hurt Porter last year either.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    methaddiction
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    #1203417391

    I would personally reward Pelphrey before anyone else for Ozark season 3 even Linney who I thought was excellent.

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