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Drama Predictions (Part 4)

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    Lance
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    Jul 7th, 2017
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    #1203418080

    Odenkirk is NOT going to win, he will continue to just get nominated. Unless the Academy pulls a Matthew Rhys or Kyle Chandler and give it to him on final season.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203418117

    April Predictions

    Outstanding Drama Series:
    1. Succession
    2. The Crown
    3. Ozark
    4. The Handmaids Tale
    5. The Morning Show
    6. Better Call Saul
    7. Westworld
    8. Killing Eve

    Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series:
    1. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
    2. Olivia Colman, The Crown
    3. Laura Linney, Ozark
    4. Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaids Tale
    5. Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
    6. Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
    7. Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder

    Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:
    1. Jason Bateman, Ozark
    2. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
    3. Tobias Menzies, The Crown
    4. Aaron Paul, Westworld
    5. Brian Cox, Succession
    6. Sterling K Brown, This is Us

    Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:
    1. Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
    2. Julia Garner, Ozark
    3. Thandie Newton, Westworld
    4. Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
    5. Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
    6. Ann Dowd, The Handmaids Tale
    7. Janet McTeer, Ozark

    Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
    1. Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
    2. Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
    3. David Harbour, Stranger Things
    4. Josh O’Connor, The Crown
    5. Bradley Whitford, The Handmaids Tale
    6. Tom Pelphrey, Ozark

    Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama:
    1. Alexis Bledel, The Handmaids Tale
    2. Cicely Tyson, How to Get Away with Murder
    3. Jane Lapotaire, The Crown
    4. Cherry Jones, The Handmaids Tale
    5. Phoebe Waller Bridge, Killing Eve
    6. Emerald Fennell, The Crown

    Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama:
    1. Charles Dance, The Crown
    2. Christopher Meloni, The Handmaids Tale
    3. Ron Cephas Jones, This is Us
    4. Cameron Britton, Mindhunter
    5. OT Fagbenle, The Handmaids Tale
    6. John Lithgow, The Crown

    Outstanding Writing in a Drama:
    1. Succession
    2. The Crown
    3. Better Call Saul
    4. The Handmaids Tale
    5. Killing Eve
    6. Big Little Lies

    Outstanding Directing in a Drama:
    1. Ozark
    2. The Crown
    3. Ozark
    4. Succession
    5. The Crown
    6. Stranger Things

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited- Quiz/ Unbelievable/ Years and Years

    Drama-Big Little Lies/ The Crown/ Killing Eve/ The Morning Show
    Jennifer, Jodie, Sandra, Olivia & VIOLA DAVIS

    Comedy- Schitts Creek/ Dead to Me- Christina Applegate, Catherine O’Hara, Suzy Nakamura, Annie Murphy, Dan Levy

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    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203418210

    Funny you say this because I was thinking it could be potentially snubbed in series just like The Americans. Both were/are even fourth in the odds!

    I’d say Better Call Saul is safer than The Americans when it comes to that. The Americans only got a series nomination the previous year, while BCS has gotten nominated for each of its four previous seasons, so it has more consistent and reliable support.

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    Luca
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    #1203418731

    Oh, Gerald McRaney needs to be in people’s drama guest actor lineups. In fact, me might actually win again if voters watched this season. And speaking of “This Is Us,” I’m starting to wonder why we have so much more faith in “Killing Eve” than in “TIU?” After all, if voters watched this past season, I don’t see how it realistically misses.Going off its nomination haul from the past three years, there’s no reason to believe that this season would all of a sudden lead to a significant decline in bids. It was one of its best, if not the best, season.

    With that being said, the reason why I don’t have it in is simply the competitive field. Yes, it’s competed against these shows before, but never in this combination. Plus, that SAG ensemble miss – which realistically speaking could just be a result of been-there-done-that – is crucial, though I would argue that it isn’t TIU’s only weakness in this race. In a year with a handful of shows that are going to net branch-wide support, that support from writers and directors might be essential, and TIU doesn’t have that (unfairly so, I’d argue). There’s also no reason why the show isn’t being considered for its editing and cinematography. But because those qualities are subtle, and the show’s on network, it’ll probably never break into those races.

    Bottom line though, I still think it might be ahead of “Killing Eve.” For all we know people might be binge-watching it now. And it’s pretty obvious, as past years have shown us, that this does appeal to a broad audience.

    One last thing – I know I’m rambling a lot here: If tapes mattered, I think Sterling K. Brown would have drama actor on lock. I’m not always a fan of his work on the show and don’t think he needed a nom for season 2, but he was terrific this season. As were Moore and Hartley.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    supermalt
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    #1203418767

    ‘This is us’ is on the rise in the prediction centre. Probably gain more traction nearing nom date. The finale was too great for it to miss out.

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    RCS
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    #1203418802

    I don’t watch This is Us, but I’d wager keeping Sterling K. Brown in the Best Actor six is a smart move.

    The real tea is, Luca is right: for some reason, people generally give Killing Eve more of a pass than they do This Is Us. People skew the reality because Killing Eve was once a great show and there’s more inherent snob appeal in its tone, production, and performances.

    Twitter: @rcs818

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203418866

    This Is Us is not above Killing Eve. KE has a broader support among the Academy and it was ahead of TIU in the acting branch aswell last year (Fiona Shaw over Susan Kelechi-Watson proves that).

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    Luca
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    #1203418868

    That’s a good point. Though comparing Shaw and Watson is bizarre IMO, as Killing Eve netted 3 acting noms while TIU bagged 7, lol. I’d say what supports your argument better is that unlike TIU, Killing Eve was able to break into writing and directing, as well as other categories like editing (if I remember correctly).

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203418876

    That’s a good point. Though comparing Shaw and Watson is bizarre IMO, as Killing Eve netted 3 acting noms while TIU bagged 7, lol. I’d say what supports your argument better is that unlike TIU, Killing Eve was able to break into writing and directing, as well as other categories like editing (if I remember correctly).

    Killing Eve got the acting noms it was campaining for. It’s not like they can get 2 lead actors in like This Is Us. So yes I think Fiona Shaw is a great indicator actors loved it more than TIU last year. They had the choice between a fan favorite from TIU over Fiona Shaw who arguably does nothing in KE and they went for her. Susan Kelechi-Watson snub could also indicate they have not watched the second part of s3, because this is where she had her tapes.

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    Luca
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    #1203418879

    Susan Kelechi-Watson snub could also indicate they have not watched the second part of s3, because this is where she had her tapes.

    Yeah this is so strange. We already had the same problem with S2 where they didn’t even nominate the season’s 2 MVPs (Moore and Hartley), but just checked off everyone from S1 (minus Metz) instead.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Jays
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    #1203418893

    Killing Eve got the acting noms it was campaining for. It’s not like they can get 2 lead actors in like This Is Us. So yes I think Fiona Shaw is a great indicator actors loved it more than TIU last year. They had the choice between a fan favorite from TIU over Fiona Shaw who arguably does nothing in KE and they went for her. Susan Kelechi-Watson snub could also indicate they have not watched the second part of s3, because this is where she had her tapes.

    Eh, but then again Moore and Sullivan were in no way predicted to be nominated last year. I think Killing Eve was obviously stronger overall but not in the acing categories. Kelechi-Watson has always been good on the show but she’s always been a pipe dream when it comes to getting nominated.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203418920

    Not predicting Moore was a mistake. She was probably one of the first bumps of the category and was like 7 in 2018. We should have predicted her. And Sullivan category was weaker than Susan’s.

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    Jays
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    #1203418928

    Eh, debatable. Sullivan still had no business getting in there. That alone was a little over performance, in the acting categories, for TIU. Also, any category that has 4 actors from the same show get in is a pretty weak category lol.

    #1203418979

    Killing Eve got the acting noms it was campaining for. It’s not like they can get 2 lead actors in like This Is Us. So yes I think Fiona Shaw is a great indicator actors loved it more than TIU last year. They had the choice between a fan favorite from TIU over Fiona Shaw who arguably does nothing in KE and they went for her. Susan Kelechi-Watson snub could also indicate they have not watched the second part of s3, because this is where she had her tapes.

    Also don’t forget. This is Us won 3 acting trophies, two in 2017 and one in 2018, both more competitive Emmy years than last year (where it didn’t win anything and lost two Emmys to a show that wasn’t even fully eligible).

    Now how many Emmys did Killing Eve win last year?

    I do agree that Killing Eve is only marginally ahead of This is Us. The fact Oh missed at SAG is probably just as damaging to the show as This is Us missing ensemble but getting in Brown.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

    #1203418989

    Thought I’d post how the prediction centre top 10 Drama contenders again by combined choices.

    1. Succession (HBO) – 2270
    2. The Crown (Netflix) – 1322
    3. Ozark (Netflix) – 1158
    4. Better Call Saul (AMC) – 1119
    5. The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) – 974
    6. Big Little Lies (HBO) – 799
    7. Westworld (HBO) – 672
    8. The Morning Show (AppleTV) – 653
    9. Killing Eve (BBC America) – 435
    10. Stranger Things (Netflix) – 144

    Ozark has risen considerably in the past few days, as has The Morning Show. Westworld, Big Little Lies and The Handmaid’s Tale have been dropping quickly.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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