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Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    mafro987
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    #1203508623

    Of course, you need the snob appeal too – let’s not forget how Handmaid’s beat ST in 2017 – which Ozark also has because of its subject matter.

    This is one of the main reasons I think Ozark is competitive for the win. It has developed (particularly with the third season) a very diverse viewership. People that normally wouldn’t watch something like Ozark are watching it, and however inaccurate the Breaking Bad comparisons are, the reality is that people are making them.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    lorelei lor
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    #1203508625

    Am I the only one that doesn’t quite see it? There is zero discussion between my family, friends, workplace etc. I just don’t see why most are so sure it’s a lock. Especially after being shut out at SAG’s?

    No. Most people I know don’t watch it and those few watching it are not passionate about it.  Almost everyone talks about Ozark though and it’s usually the first show that pops up when people make recommendations.

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    Eden
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    #1203508627

    How is snob appeal associated with Ozark and not Succession?

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    Luca
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    #1203508631

    Um, no one said that. All we said was that Ozark has the broad appeal AND snob appeal – we think.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203508635

    The reason why I think The Crown will ultimately win Drama Series is because of the overwhelming industry support. It’s a show that’s loved by Actors, Writers and Directors. It won SAG Ensemble whereas Succession couldn’t even get a nomination. I’m not saying Succession doesn’t have a chance, but the people who are predicting it to receive 3+ acting nominations, what evidence do you have that actors would vote for it. Also The Crown is a much more popular show than Succession, I’ve personally only heard of it from this site. By no means am I saying that Succession is bad and doesn’t deserve the win (I’ve not seen it yet so I can’t comment on the quality), I just don’t see it ultimately sweeping at the emmys.

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited-
    UNBELIEVABLE, Quiz, Years and Years, Defending Jacob in all Categories
    Merritt Wever, Toni Collette, Matthew Macfadyen, Emma Thompson, Chris Evans & Michelle Dockery

    Drama-
    STRANGER THINGS, The Morning Show, Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve
    - Jennifer Aniston, VIOLA DAVIS, Jodie Comer, Sandra Oh, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman
    - FIONA SHAW, HBC

    Comedy-
    SCHITTS CREEK, Dead to Me, Sex Education
    - Catherine O’Hara, Annie Murphy, Christina Applegate, Linda Ca

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    Luca
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    #1203508642

    Has Netflix ever said anything about The Crown’s viewership? We know that Stranger Things, Ozark, Unbelievable and more are hits, but I don’t recall them saying anything about the Crown. I might be wrong though. The Crown is another one that I think is far more respected than actually loved. Its SAG ensemble win is surely nothing to ignore, but I have such a hard time believing that the same people who voted for GOT four times – even for its worst seasons – would now check off The Crown.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    mafro987
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    #1203508644

    How is snob appeal associated with Ozark and not Succession?

    The fact that Ozark appeals to that demographic is more noteworthy. Succession having snob appeal is quite frankly a given. I do think people are underselling how buzzed Succession season 2 was though. Only Game of Thrones and Fleabag got more attention from the press in 2019. The question is how that translates into Emmy recognition (and there’s no definitive evidence either way).

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    Luca
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    #1203508653

    If Succession breaks through in the acting races – and by breaking through I don’t mean a mere nom for Brian Cox – then I’d pretty confidently predict it for Best Drama Series. But I need to see that happen first.

    Going back to the beloved vs. respected aspect, I feel like we make the same “mistake” (not that this is in any way serious) time and again: Many of us went with WTSU last year when it was probably more respected than beloved (as made evident by its winter awards run) while Chernobyl was the most buzzed about show of the year behind GOT (that IMDb rating still shocks me until today); some people were going with Veep in comedy series when Fleabag’s shocking 11 nominations were nothing else than a result of unimpeachable passion for the show.

    Hence, for me, the series race is between Succession and Ozark. But who knows, the nominations might prove otherwise.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203508658

    Has Netflix ever said anything about The Crown’s viewership? We know that Stranger Things, Ozark, Unbelievable and more are hits, but I don’t recall them saying anything about the Crown. I might be wrong though. The Crown is another one that I think is far more respected than actually loved. Its SAG ensemble win is surely nothing to ignore, but I have such a hard time believing that the same people who voted for GOT four times – even for its worst seasons – would now check off The Crown.

    It’s assumed S3 lowkey flopped considering they cut S6 and it never showed up (or really low, I don’t exactly remember) in Netflix UK trends (Netflix UK started revealing its top programs before the rest of the world did). If it’s doing underwhelming in UK, imagine in other countries…

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203508663

    I am actually finding the Supporting Actress race quite tough because as much as I love Laura Dern, Yvonne Strahovski and Sarah Snook’s performance I kind of want one if not all of them to miss because Helena Bonham Carter deserves to win for Cri de Coeur.

    Has Netflix ever said anything about The Crown’s viewership? We know that Stranger Things, Ozark, Unbelievable and more are hits, but I don’t recall them saying anything about the Crown. I might be wrong though. The Crown is another one that I think is far more respected than actually loved. Its SAG ensemble win is surely nothing to ignore, but I have such a hard time believing that the same people who voted for GOT four times – even for its worst seasons – would now check off The Crown.

    I wonder considering The Americans is now out of the race where those voters will go because The Crown was marginally behind GoT in 2018.

    I feel the same but people will tell you it’s a smash. I do think it clicked with the right people, meaning the industry except possibly actors, but it’s far from being the audience hit people say it is.

    Lol I’m sorry but who said it’s a smash? I love Succession but I mean whilst it has some popularity over in Europe and more specifically in the UK I don’t think it is more of a hit than Stranger Things for example (despite more and more people catching up on the show).

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203508690

    In my opinion here is what I see the acting Emmy performance of each of the three Drama Series contenders being like :

    Succession :

    Underperforms : Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong
    Drama Series Viable : Brian Cox, Cherry Jones, Sarah Snook, Jeremy Strong
    Overperforms : Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, Cherry Jones, Sarah Snook, Jeremy Strong, Harriet Walter
    Massive Over-performance : Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, Holly Hunter, Cherry Jones, Sarah Snook, Jeremy Strong, Harriet Walter

    The Crown :

    Undeperforms : Helena Bonham Carter, Olivia Colman, Charles Dance
    Drama Series Viable : Helena Bonham Carter, Olivia Colman, Charles Dance, Tobias Menzies, Josh O’Connor
    Overperforms : Helena Bonham Carter, Olivia Colman, Charles Dance, Tobias Menzies, Josh O’Connor, Jane Lapotaire, Mark Lewis Jones
    Massive Over-performance : Helena B0nham Carter, Olivia Colman, Charles Dance, Erin Doherty, Tobias Menzies, Josh O’Connor, Jane Lapotaire, Mark Lewis Jones, Jason Watkins

    Ozark : 

    Underperforms : Jason Bateman, Julia Garner, Laura Linney
    Drama Series Viable : Jason Bateman, Julia Garner, Laura Linney, Janet McTeer

    I actually think each show has one problem going for it and that is that they came and went. I know it is going to sound controversial considering Ozark was released at the end of March but these comparisons to Fleabag aren’t equivalent. Fleabag exploded just before the deadline and was being checked out by voters during voting. The problem Ozark faces is that although it has enough buzz to win Drama Series, outside of GoldDerby people simply haven’t been talking about it since the end of last month. Which is the same thing I’ve seen with Succession since the end of January and the same thing I’ve seen with The Crown since the end of February.

    I think once Emmy voters fill out their ballots they will check off the cast and crew of The Crown, Ozark and Succession (along with one or two other shows that won’t be competitive for the win but could easily get a bucketload of nominations) but as to who will win it’s anyone’s game. In December I thought The Crown was easily taking this, then for a while I thought Succession was locked for this due to support from the writers and directors but now I think it’s too close to call.

    It’s assumed S3 lowkey flopped considering they cut S6 and it never showed up (or really low, I don’t exactly remember) in Netflix UK trends (Netflix UK started revealing its top programs before the rest of the world did). If it’s doing underwhelming in UK, imagine in other countries…

    It showed up in the Netflix UK trends for around ten weeks (I think it was #1 during the first week, #2 during the second and #10 during the third) but after that it stopped and wasn’t revealed by Netflix to be in the top 10 of the year in the UK (I think they said it was around 10 in the States or Worldwide?). I assume the viewership of this season probably put it around 11th place but yeah a flop considering how widely seen viewership wise season 2 was .

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203508726

    It showed up in the Netflix UK trends for around ten weeks (I think it was #1 during the first week, #2 during the second and #10 during the third) but after that it stopped and wasn’t revealed by Netflix to be in the top 10 of the year in the UK (I think they said it was around 10 in the States or Worldwide?). I assume the viewership of this season probably put it around 11th place but yeah a flop considering how widely seen viewership wise season 2 was .

    Thanks for the clarification! I didn’t exactly remember, just that it was considered underwhelming.

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    Aereos
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    #1203508817

    What about the Netflix antibias? I think is was discussed before, as a reason why it hasn’t win a series drama/comedy Emmy.

    If something this year could change that but Succession is being champion by critics and GG so I guess is the safe bet, is HBO!! The prestige cable channel, who is know to have a voting block.

    The sad thing in my opinion, is that this year Drama series winner should be BCS but alas.

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203508821

    I tried to post this last night, but things got wonky.

    Series: Ozark (RU: Succession) – I think Ozark is too insanely buzzy at too recent and critical a time, despite its flaws

    Actor: Brian Cox, Succession (RU: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul) – I really think it could either way, with potential vote-splitting working in Odenkirk’s favor

    Actress: Laura Linney, Ozark (RU: Olivia Colman, The Crown) – Linney performed heavy-lifting throughout the entire season, not just for an episode or two

    Supporting Actor: Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (RU: Tom Pelphrey, Ozark) – Both Crudup and Pelphrey played memorable scene-stealers, but Crudup served as a story driver rather than a story instigator; though Pelphrey earned his newfound recognition hands down

    Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies (RU: Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown) – The notion of Streep, Carter, McTeer, Dern and Kidman all being on the same ticket for television will never cease to amaze and impress, but Madame Streep will probably take it

    Directing: Succession (RU: The Crown) – Because one of them is gonna take it

    Writing: The Crown (RU: Ozark) – Because non-writers vote for this category and though Ozark has had the most attention for its shocking ending, The Crown has the edge in the prestige factor

    I’m not going to lie, the idea of awards being evenly distributed among all these talented casts and shows is my idea of a good ceremony.

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203508823

    I can understand people predicting Ozark to be ahead of Succession in Series but there is no way it is ahead of it in Writing (especially considering Succession won Writing last year and Ozark has never been nominated for writing and is battling for the nomination).

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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