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Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203512528

    I don’t like argument that HTGAWM is past its peak

    I mean in terms of awards/buzz, which is what matters most here.  We are obviously a long way from the Emmy and SAG wins, plus citations from AFI, Globe, TCA and CSA its first season.  I mean, people love that final season of Mr. Robot, but not as many people are watching as they used to and others have moved on to fresher choices.

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    Luca
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    #1203512564

    Fair enough! That said, it still managed to get two Emmy noms for its third season, one for its fourth (matching season 2’s total) and three for its fifth, after it had already been dropped everywhere.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    forwardswill
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    #1203512628

    She is obviously not one of the three frontrunners, who are Jennifer Aniston, Olivia Colman and Laura Linney, so that leaves three slots for Davis. Then you have Elisabeth Moss, who was nominated over Davis the last time that they competed at both the Emmys and SAG, plus Moss won her Emmy more recently, she is in a younger show and it is a probable series nominee. If you personally feel that Davis is ahead of Moss, that is fine, but it is not really supported by any metric. It is largely the same story if you compare Davis with Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh. Both were nominated at SAG more recently than Davis, they got their wins more recently than her (Emmy for Comer, SAG for Oh) and they are in a show that is only in its third season and is coming off of a series nomination, plus they were individually strong enough last year to overcome vote-splitting. Again, not saying that they are necessarily ahead, but they are logically. So that fills up all six slots right there and I have not even gotten to Nicole Kidman coming off a sweep for her only other season and being in a probable series nominee that was recently nominated for SAG ensemble. I have Reese Witherspoon myself. Davis is in an old show that peaked a long time ago; she was nominated in a field of seven last year in a field that was notoriously weak. The people who voted Davis last year can easily do so again, but was she in the top half of the category last year? And if she was not, does she not get easily pushed out by the people who were not eligible then?

    I kind of disagree with the weight you place on all of this but that’s fine. I don’t think we’re going to agree but I’ll explain my view further anyway. Comer and Oh’s past is only relevant to me if you take it at face value, ignoring the fact that reception for their show is collapsing. Kidman’s previous sweep is also irrelevant to me and if anything I think counts against her as the difference in opinion on the series between its two seasons becomes more stark. I also do not currently see the series getting nominated as sadly I think a negative consensus has now been reached. I agree that maybe I should have Witherspoon ahead of Davis seeing as I am taking The Morning Show seriously with actors, partially due to the fact that it’s the only new show they really have to play with on the Drama side.

    To me, Davis’ show “peaking” years ago actually helps her here because not only has she already displayed that she can get nominated in spite of that but it also allows her to be one of the few contenders here that does not have a show with negative buzz surrounding it. In fact, it arguably has a rise in positive attention for the first time in six years.

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    Luca
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    #1203512632

    To me, Davis’ show “peaking” years ago actually helps her here because not only has she already displayed that she can get nominated in spite of that but it also allows her to be one of the few contenders here that does not have a show with negative buzz surrounding it. In fact, it arguably has a rise in positive attention for the first time in six years.

    Exactly this.

    Plus, I think everyone pretty much agrees that its fifth season was probably its weakest, so the fact that it managed to get three nominations for it is something to bear in mind. As you said, this sixth season generated unexpected buzz, which can surely only help, right?

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Eden
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    #1203512654

    Davis can certainly get a nomination, but only as a name-check, meaning choosing a respected A-star celebrity, without having seen her eligible performance. I’ve enjoyed the show over the years, but it’s definitely not on voters’ priority watchlist. Tyson is another name-check, and as Luca pointed out a few weeks ago, Turman had a baity description, helped by ballot positioning.

    The buzz surrounding the series finale is pretty much among fans, although it might have caused attention with voters, too, which if it wasn’t a name-check, wouldn’t have helped Davis.

    The competition in Drama Actress this year suggests similar strong competition as in 2018, when Davis was snubbed, but Wood and Oh will suffer more from their shows losing steam. Funny thing is, I was really stubborn that year at predicting Davis.

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    Luca
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    #1203512662

    Davis can certainly get a nomination, but only as a name-check

    I feel like this is the perfect moment to bring up something that I don’t think enough people have talked about:

    I don’t know how many voters of color there are in the TV academy, but I know for sure that Davis’ character, Annalise Keating, has meant a lot to people of color, African-American women in particular. Not just the evolution of her journey, but what she stands for in general. And the same applies to Davis herself, who is not only incredibly talented but looked up to by so many people. There’s one quote from a YouTube video that has really stuck with me, so I would like to share it (I cannot find the direct comment though):

    – Spoilers ahead – 

    Someone pointed out that Annalise – an African-American woman who lost her child & husband, who was raped as a child, who was blamed for all bad things that happened around her although most occurrences weren’t her fault at all, and who faced multiple charges of murder – was ultimately found not guilty and got to life the rest of life seemingly in peace.

    I mean, people have pointed out that Hollywood makes some people feel good, but this is an arc that I think struck a chord. Of course, we don’t know whether Emmy voters really watched all the way through until the end, or even saw the ending at all. I know we also like to pretend as though Emmy voters are completely unemotional, but I’ve never bought that for a second – and that’s fine!

    I’m not saying she’s getting in because of this – not at all actually – but I thought I would mention it.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Ben Heath (Articufilm)
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    #1203512666

    Both Davis and Oh are industry veterans, who are beloved and will have lots of people voting for them. But that is the same argument which can be used for Coleman, Kidman, Moss, Anniston and Linney. Davis could easily get in over Comer because both of them have showy roles, but I reckon Davis has already been dropped before in 2018, and history may repeat itself

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    Eden
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    #1203512668

    I’m not disputing any emotional effect of the show and her performance on audiences, just saying that her nomination relies on name-check, not passionate viewers of the show. It’s not easy to say voters don’t watch a certain show, but it’s pretty clear with Murder.

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203512830

    Just out of curiosity, I checked the number of acting Emmy nominations and wins of the top choices, not including series wins.

    I know this has been done before, but I’m surprised this isn’t a more winning bunch given all of their collective cinematic and television acclaim. I guess they have more individual wins from GG, SAG and Oscars.

    Aniston – 1/5

    Colman – 0/2

    Comer – 1/1

    Danes – 3/7

    Davis – 1/4

    Kidman – 1/2

    Linney – 4/6

    Moss – 1/9

    Oh – 0/7

    Witherspoon – 0/1

    Wood – 0/3

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    Couverture
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    #1203512841

    Davis actually has 5 nominations and that 0 for Oh is so sad.

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    Leon94
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    #1203512847

    When will the official list of the Emmy ballots be released to the public?

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    Someonelikeme
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    #1203512959

    Lol a passionate vote is really a moot, in my opinion. I have a snaking suspicion that performers don’t put that much thought into exactly what voters are or are not passionate about their shows, once their names are called on nomination day…

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    #1203513028

    When will the official list of the Emmy ballots be released to the public?

    Supposing it is on the same day that voting starts, as in previous years, then this year will be on July 2. If I’m wrong, someone correct me, please.

    Emmys FYC: Freddie Highmore in Best Drama Actor for "The Good Doctor", Jane Levy in Best Comedy Actress for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist", "What We Do in the Shadows" and "After Life" in Best Comedy Series, "Ozark" and "Better Call Saul" in all categories.

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    Emmyfan
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    #1203513076

    Just out of curiosity, I checked the number of acting Emmy nominations and wins of the top choices, not including series wins.

    I know this has been done before, but I’m surprised this isn’t a more winning bunch given all of their collective cinematic and television acclaim. I guess they have more individual wins from GG, SAG and Oscars.

    Aniston – 1/5

    Colman – 0/2

    Comer – 1/1

    Danes – 3/7

    Davis – 1/4

    Kidman – 1/2

    Linney – 4/6

    Moss – 1/9

    Oh – 0/7

    Witherspoon – 0/1

    Wood – 0/3

    Hi!

    Sandra Oh has 8 nominations if you include her Guest Actress – Comedy nomination for SNL in 2019.

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203513168

    Davis actually has 5 nominations and that 0 for Oh is so sad.

    Seriously, that 0 is a dang shame.

    And thanks for the corrections!

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