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Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    Ben Heath (Articufilm)
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    #1203514103

    I can’t be the only person who is hoping that Sandra Oh has a nomination for the third season of KE. She is still great in the role, the third season is still being watched, and there is a lot of buzz about the finale episode. I just think there are enough people who enjoy the role and want her to get some recognition, which means she may even get in if Comer gets snubbed

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203514110

    I actually think that Oh is more likely for a nomination than Comer.

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited-
    UNBELIEVABLE, Quiz, Years and Years, Defending Jacob in all Categories
    Merritt Wever, Toni Collette, Matthew Macfadyen, Emma Thompson, Chris Evans & Michelle Dockery

    Drama-
    STRANGER THINGS, The Morning Show, Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve
    - Jennifer Aniston, VIOLA DAVIS, Jodie Comer, Sandra Oh, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman
    - FIONA SHAW, HBC

    Comedy-
    SCHITTS CREEK, Dead to Me, Sex Education
    - Catherine O’Hara, Annie Murphy, Christina Applegate, Linda Ca

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203514117

    I am curious as to why people would think Oh is ahead of Comer when the latter not only gives the more buzzed about performance, but is last year’s reigning champ and, unlike the former, was nominated at each and every precursor award. If they really wanted to reward Oh for this role, they would have last year. I think her ship has sailed for Killing Eve, and I genuinely feel bad for her.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203514123

    I don’t think Oh could happen without Comer but there have been some plausible explanations as to why it could happen. Oh is a bigger name than Comer, and even if the latter won, Oh was probably far ahead in the nomination phase last year than her. As to the winter awards, I think they just wanted a Killing Eve representative and chose the Emmy winner, the show wasn’t a priority enough to get double noms so Oh missed. It’s totally plausible Oh would have been nominated instead of Comer had she won the Emmy.

    I’m personally confident in the Maslany comparison for Comer, so I’m keeping her in my predictions (as someone who has correctly predicted Maslany to happen in 2018). But I don’t think Oh is that much below her. Like, I don’t think Comer is #5 and Oh #12, they are probably much closer to that.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203514126

    I think they both still got nominated anyway (in a field of 8)

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited-
    UNBELIEVABLE, Quiz, Years and Years, Defending Jacob in all Categories
    Merritt Wever, Toni Collette, Matthew Macfadyen, Emma Thompson, Chris Evans & Michelle Dockery

    Drama-
    STRANGER THINGS, The Morning Show, Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve
    - Jennifer Aniston, VIOLA DAVIS, Jodie Comer, Sandra Oh, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman
    - FIONA SHAW, HBC

    Comedy-
    SCHITTS CREEK, Dead to Me, Sex Education
    - Catherine O’Hara, Annie Murphy, Christina Applegate, Linda Ca

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    Eden
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    Jun 7th, 2016
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    #1203514128

    If we assume the nominees benefit from being at the beginning of the ballot, one half of the voting body would support Aniston, Colman, Comer and Davis, who are both frontrunners in our odds and also at the beginning of half the ballots. So what happens with the other half  having a ballot without a strong frontrunner in the first few pages? Wood is the first one that comes up, then Witherspoon twice, Oh right after and then a bigger jump to Moss. Kidman and Linney are in the middle, the most negatively affected by the balloting theory, at least based on current frontrunner status, not the actual ballots.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203514134

    Big Little Lies is starting to be the show I question the most. I have no idea if it’s going to do really well in nominations with Series, Kidman, Dern, Streep (possibly directing) or simply flop with just Streep getting in based on her name recognition.

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    Luca
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    #1203514136

    It makes a whole lot of sense to predict both Comer and Oh if you think KE is still a thing. I for one don’t, so I don’t have either one in.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203514138

    But performers can still happen even if their show isn’t a thing anymore or never was. Viola Davis fits that mold too, and so does Maslany and to some extent Brown and Porter in actor.

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    Luca
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    #1203514142

    Davis and Maslany are incomparable because their shows were nowhere close to a series nomination. Killing Eve, on the other hand, has been nominated for drama series – in fact, it got 9 nominations last year – which is why I think Oh and Comer’s chances are much reliant on the show’s strength. People are going to cite Oh getting in in 2018 without the show, but I don’t think the show was omitted because Emmy voters didn’t take to it, but rather because it peaked too late. Oh overcoming that remains impressive. Bottom line, Davis and Maslany have only ever gotten in without their show – I think that’s the point.

    Comer could easily be someone they nominate and reward once, but then drop. But we shall see!

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203514145

    If we assume the nominees benefit from being at the beginning of the ballot, one half of the voting body would support Aniston, Colman, Comer and Davis, who are both frontrunners in our odds and also at the beginning of half the ballots. So what happens with the other half having a ballot without a strong frontrunner in the first few pages? Wood is the first one that comes up, then Witherspoon twice, Oh right after and then a bigger jump to Moss. Kidman and Linney are in the middle, the most negatively affected by the balloting theory, at least based on current frontrunner status, not the actual ballots.

    Speaking of this, someone who could benefit greatly from the reverse ballot in actor is 3 times nominee Milo Ventimiglia…

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1203514147

    I’m not saying the ballot placement is irrelevant, but I think people are putting way too much weight on it. Don’t we get a pretty balanced lineup every year?

    2019: Clarke, Comer, Davis, Linney, Moore, Oh, Wright

    2018: Foy, Moss, Maslany, Oh, Russell, Wright (this one would favor the opposite, actually)

    2017: Davis, Foy, Moss, Russell, Wood, Wright

    2016: Danes, Davis, Henson, Maslany, Russell, Wright

    2015: Danes, Davis, Henson, Maslany, Moss, Wright

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    forwardswill
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    Apr 9th, 2013
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    #1203514149

    If we assume the nominees benefit from being at the beginning of the ballot, one half of the voting body would support Aniston, Colman, Comer and Davis, who are both frontrunners in our odds and also at the beginning of half the ballots. So what happens with the other half having a ballot without a strong frontrunner in the first few pages? Wood is the first one that comes up, then Witherspoon twice, Oh right after and then a bigger jump to Moss. Kidman and Linney are in the middle, the most negatively affected by the balloting theory, at least based on current frontrunner status, not the actual ballots.

    I try not to place too much emphasis on the ordering of the ballot but it is a small part of the reason I’m predicting Witherspoon. Within two pages (maybe one), half of voters will see her listed for not one but two performances they have probably seen and at least respected. To ignore both when they probably won’t have checked anyone else off yet (and if they have it is max one person) would have to be a properly conscious snub and I am not sure that’s going to happen in such an acclaimed year for an already very popular actress.

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    Luca
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    #1203514155

    There’s one argument I used last year when predicting Oh to win that completely bit me in the ass: I thought Oh had a leg up over her competitors because (bar Wright) she was the only one of them to get in the year before when all were eligible for their respective shows. What am I trying to say? It’s all about the temperature in the room, and we should have been able to feel that Comer’s work had much more passion.

    This is more of a general observation than directly related to someone’s chances. That’s why, for instance, I have Davis in. Or why I think Killing Eve could blanked.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    Eden
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    #1203514157

    There’s one argument I used last year when predicting Oh to win that completely bit me in the ass: I thought Oh had a leg up over her competitors because (bar Wright) she was the only one of them to get in the year before when all were eligible for their respective shows. What am I trying to say? It’s all about the temperature in the room, and we should have been able to feel that Comer’s work had much more passion.

    That makes more sense when predicting the winners (not nominees), which changes big way after the nominations are announced.

    I want to predict Witherspoon because of her ballot placement, but I’m hesitant because of her appearing twice. I thought The Morning Show would be more obvious, but the poll we had here suggests wide support of her performance in Big Little Lies.

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