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Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    Luca
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    #1203515704

    I believe a lot of people predicting the BAFTAs were predicting her snub.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203515730

    Yep. The reception to her performance in the UK has been, well let’s say lukewarm, in comparison to Carter’s and O’Connor’s (which have been received quite strongly).

    O’Connor’s nomination is either like Kirby’s season 1 nom or Kirby’s season 2 win.

    Also, when did voting for BAFTA take place? If they voted while season 3 was airing, then the low count doesn’t surprise me in the slightest

    Voting took place just before the third season aired in the UK. Point being that if the show dropped down from 14 to 4 nominations for its second season before the third had aired at the awards ceremony that loved the show the most, who knows what its Emmy chances are going to be like. The BAFTA drop off is exactly the same as Westworld’s bombing at the guilds for season 2. At this rate it seems like only Comer is their best above the line shot, just like Newton is Westworld’s best above the line shot.

    Olivia Colman’s BAFTA snub is shocking. When you don’t even have enough support in your homeland for a nom…

    – Jed Mercurio was snubbed in Writing at BAFTA but nominated at the Emmys.

    – The Special Relationship got shut out at BAFTA in 2010.

    – Tom Hiddleston, Olivia Colman, Elizabeth Debicki and Hugh Laurie were all snubbed at the BAFTAs.

    – Matt Smith was snubbed at the BAFTAs and so was Matthew Goode.

    – Stephen Daldry was snubbed for one of the first two seasons of The Crown.

    – Downton Abbey was completely shut out of BAFTA above the line after season 2.

    Just because you get snubbed at BAFTA, doesn’t mean your Emmy chances are completely damaged (unless you’re Richard Madden). It doesn’t help but it doesn’t hurt.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    musterd
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    #1203515762

    Olivia Colman’s BAFTA snub is shocking. When you don’t even have enough support in your homeland for a nom…

    She hasn’t been nominated by BAFTA TV since her 3 wins in 2013/2014, save for Fleabag s1. She only started getting Emmy nominations after 2016. Don’t think there will be much correlation between the 2 for her noms wise at least after winning 3 in 2 years.

    BAFTA TV noms are also by panel selection which Andrew Scott probably fell victim to here.

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    wolfali
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    #1203515764

    The whole Academy actually votes for their top 6 and then the panel whittles it down to 4 contenders. We can naturally assume that Scott was in the top 6.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Ben Heath (Articufilm)
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    #1203515767

    Claire Foy never won the BAFTA for her role in The Crown, and the panel system can lead to lots of snubs at the nominations. BAFTA also has only four nominations per category and spreads the love across shows usually. Therefore Olivia Coleman missing for The Crown doesn’t hinder her Emmy chances, it just doesn’t help them out.

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    wolfali
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    #1203515774

    And also BAFTA puts TV Movie, Limited Series and Drama actors in one category.

    The Helena Bonham Carter and Josh O’Connor nominations are very significant though when it comes to their Emmy chances. If O’Connor wins I can easily see him making it in à la Kirby in season 2 (except he’d be less deserving considering Kirby deserved the Emmy win!) and the fact HBC managed to make it in whilst Olivia Colman got snubbed says something.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    mf617
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    #1203515797

    This may not make a lot of sense, but I could see Nicholas Braun pulling a Matt Walsh. They both come from one of the most-buzzed about shows of their cycle, with a huge talented ensemble that obviously can’t all get nominations, and their names appear at either end of the alphabet. I’m not 100% convinced and I doubt I’ll ever end up actually predicting him, but I can certainly see the argument. Personally, he’s the third “Succession” actor I’d nominate in that category, but all three make my personal lineup this year.

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    Kay
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    #1203515823

    I think I found a mistake in the Predictions Center: Asante Blackk (This is Us) is listed on both Supporting Actor and Guest Actor.

    He appears in 8/18 episodes, he’s supposed to be guest.

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    wolfali
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    #1203515831

    Sure, but it really isn’t that strange at all. It was (arguably) locked for writing even before this BAFTA nom is all I was trying so say. This nom won’t change much.

    Also just to point out that with Jesse Armstrong what is interesting is that his show wasn’t eligible for above the line and still got a Writing nomination. Peter Morgan (whose show was eligible above the line) got snubbed despite his show having the second highest amount of nominations and having two previous nominations.

    The Crown’s performance is making me conflicted in predicting a Crown overperformance or underperformance. I mean it kind of overpeformed at the BAFTAs and underperformed.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203516178

    – Jed Mercurio was snubbed in Writing at BAFTA but nominated at the Emmys. – The Special Relationship got shut out at BAFTA in 2010. – Tom Hiddleston, Olivia Colman, Elizabeth Debicki and Hugh Laurie were all snubbed at the BAFTAs. – Matt Smith was snubbed at the BAFTAs and so was Matthew Goode. – Stephen Daldry was snubbed for one of the first two seasons of The Crown. – Downton Abbey was completely shut out of BAFTA above the line after season 2. Just because you get snubbed at BAFTA, doesn’t mean your Emmy chances are completely damaged (unless you’re Richard Madden). It doesn’t help but it doesn’t hurt.

    It doesn’t hurt for a nom but it could hurt her for the win. It’s displaying a lack of passion and it isn’t helping her build a momentum.

    Olivia Colman missing with The Crown getting all those noms and them bringing back Comer despite shuting out KE elsewhere is still not a good look for her, even if you guys predicted it.

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    jacob121
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    #1203516194

    I thinking reading into BAFTA TV noms is kind of a fools errand

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    wolfali
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    #1203516204

    It doesn’t hurt for a nom but it could hurt her for the win. It’s displaying a lack of passion and it isn’t helping her build a momentum. Olivia Colman missing with The Crown getting all those noms and them bringing back Comer despite shuting out KE elsewhere is still not a good look for her, even if you guys predicted it.

    Maggie Smith was snubbed at the BAFTAs for the first season of Downton Abbey when it got into Series and Supporting Actor there and yet she still won the Emmy.

    Getting snubbed by BAFTA doesn’t hurt your Emmy nomination or winning chances but it doesn’t help them either. However winning the BAFTA when you’re in a show with Emmy buzz helps your chances a lot (e.g. Jodie Comer, Vanessa Kirby, Ben Whishaw).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Potatohead
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    #1203516303

    If O’Connor wins I can easily see him making it in à la Kirby in season 2 (except he’d be less deserving considering Kirby deserved the Emmy win!)

    Thandie Newton deserved her win, but Kirby would’ve been a worthy winner. So would O’Connor; his performance made a generally disliked public figure into my favorite character of the season. So much tenderness, vulnerability, frustration, it was an excellent performance that should’ve hit every single awards body as a frontrunner.

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    wolfali
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    #1203516345

    Claire Foy never won the BAFTA for her role in The Crown, and the panel system can lead to lots of snubs at the nominations. BAFTA also has only four nominations per category and spreads the love across shows usually. Therefore Olivia Coleman missing for The Crown doesn’t hinder her Emmy chances, it just doesn’t help them out.

    I can understand why they didn’t give it to her for season 1 (Sarah Lancashire is incredible) but the fact they didn’t for season 2 was a crime. Especially considering her competition that year.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Aereos
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    Apr 8th, 2020
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    #1203516360

    As any awards the Bafta are good for buzz but doesn’t dictate the Emmys preference. Olivia Colman is safe and sound and still competitive for a win.

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