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Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203505912

    Linney doesn’t scare me much. Coleman definitely doesn’t scare me. Viola, who has never not received a nomination for playing Annalise Keating, makes me shiver. After the first year she won, she did not campaign but still got her nom (even in guest). This year, I hear she’s back at it for the final season.

    Viola Davis is amazing. She’s one of those actors who should normally make anyone shiver, in the best ways.

    But I don’t think she’s going to beat the top three. I have no doubt she’ll get a nomination though, because she’s just that good.

    And I think her momentum may very well knock out stalwarts like Moss and Witherspoon.

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    Luca
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    #1203505945

    I think Moss is safe. She’s an 11-time nominee, past winner for this role and the lead with a captital L of Handmaid’s. If there was any doubt (for me), it was torched by her not-guaranteed third consecutive SAG nom.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203505970

    I have them in the same order, but Jennifer Aniston is just not going to win. The only thing she has going on for her is that she is the SAG winner. We all know how SAG is extremely populist so this might explain why Aniston won.

    If SAG is extremely populist then why didn’t Millie Bobby Brown win over Claire Foy twice?

    SAG is a body of acting peers who are a useful precursor at telling who wins the Emmy. In the past decade alone 6 out of 9 of the winners went on to win the Emmy. Jennifer Aniston is a Hollywood film star who has given a revelatory dramatic performance who has the buzz of The Morning Show being her return to TV after 15 years. I find it hard to believe that she won SAG because they’re extremely populist or by coincidence as you claimed on the movie side is how Academy Award winners win their second Oscars.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203505975

    I totally get her past nominations, but I honestly think Moss has reached the end, or is reaching the end, of that Handmaid’s Tale fire.

    Not only was its reception lackluster last summer, but it really does feel like it was forever ago. I just think this year has been full of so much, it’ll require a bit more than name recognition moving forward.

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203505988

    I think Moss is safe. She’s an 11-time nominee, past winner for this role and the lead with a captital L of Handmaid’s. If there was any doubt (for me), it was torched by her not-guaranteed third consecutive SAG nom.

    Hmm. I think Moss is extremely likely but something Riley said in another thread made me start to question how “Safe” she is. She could very well be in a similar situation to Julianna Margulies when she got snubbed for her fourth season, a multi Emmy nominated Drama Actress contender getting snubbed on her show’s fourth turn at the Emmys. That doesn’t mean THT will get shut out but whilst I think she is comfortably in I wouldn’t be surprised if she did get snubbed. Don’t forget she isn’t Emmy invincible (she was snubbed for Mad Men in 2014 and Top of the Lake : China Girl) and after all we are questioning David Harbour’s chances due to the competition but his and Moss’s shows only got individual nominations at SAG and ensemble this year. The only difference is that Harbour’s show has won a SAG award whilst Moss’s hasn’t.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    methaddiction
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    #1203505999

    Moss isn’t missing after The Handmaid’s Tale won two acting Emmys last year and she got another SAG nomination.

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    Luca
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    #1203506005

    The only difference is that Harbour’s show has won a SAG award whilst Moss’s hasn’t.

    That hardly matters when you look at Stranger Things’ 5 Emmy acting noms and 0 wins and Handmaid’s’ 14 noms and 6 wins.

    it’ll require a bit more than name recognition moving forward.

    Name recognition is not what got her past Nicole Kidman, Laura Dern, Meryl Streep, Sandra Oh and more at SAG. She’s also bloody good on Handmaid’s.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203506054

    Sarah Snook is coming.

    https://www.goldderby.com/article/2020/succession-sarah-snook-emmy-predictions-drama-supporting-actress-top-six/

    Name recognition is not what got her past Nicole Kidman, Laura Dern, Meryl Streep, Sandra Oh and more at SAG. She’s also bloody good on Handmaid’s.

    Tbf Moss is probably a bigger name than Sandra Oh and I still stand by my thought that Kidman, Dern and Streep caused a vote split but yeah name recognition isn’t what got her a nom.

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1203506056

    Right now I’d say when it comes to winning, Viola Davis is Top 4 in her category

    FYC Emmys-
    Limited-
    UNBELIEVABLE, Quiz, Years and Years, Defending Jacob in all Categories
    Merritt Wever, Toni Collette, Matthew Macfadyen, Emma Thompson, Chris Evans & Michelle Dockery

    Drama-
    STRANGER THINGS, The Morning Show, Big Little Lies, The Crown, Killing Eve
    - Jennifer Aniston, VIOLA DAVIS, Jodie Comer, Sandra Oh, Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman
    - FIONA SHAW, HBC

    Comedy-
    SCHITTS CREEK, Dead to Me, Sex Education
    - Catherine O’Hara, Annie Murphy, Christina Applegate, Linda Ca

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    Luca
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    #1203506070

    Tbf Moss is probably a bigger name than Sandra Oh and I still stand by my thought that Kidman, Dern and Streep caused a vote split but yeah name recognition isn’t what got her a nom.

    That wasn’t the point of my comment. I meant to point out that Moss overcame heavy competition – that they’re all big names is just a coincidence.

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203506094

    Name recognition is not what got her past Nicole Kidman, Laura Dern, Meryl Streep, Sandra Oh and more at SAG. She’s also bloody good on Handmaid’s.

    Sorry, when you mentioned that she’s been nominated 11 times, that’s what made me think of name recognition.

    Moss has been fantastic in a very serious, very difficult show. But I think there’s a valid reason behind some of the jokes and memes that emerged after season three premiered that year… There’s only so much staring into the middle distance and grimacing that I can personally take season after season, episode after episode.

    She’s a proper lead for the show, no doubt. I just wasn’t wowed by some of her performances last year, as it felt like I’d seen her portrayals before.

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    Luca
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    #1203506114

    No need to apologize! I get that people are tired of the close-ups – and I might agree that there are too many of them – but it’s Moss’ peers voting, and they’re well aware that choosing shot compositions doesn’t belong to an actor’s job. Moss does what is asked of her, though she obviously has a lot of influence as an executive producer. I also don’t think Emmy voters are the types of people that care about or are even aware of such memes. They also don’t strike me as the types of people who would agree with their creation 🙂

    Emmys FYC - "Unbelievable" and "The Handmaid's Tale" in all categories; Viola Davis in Best Drama Actress for the final season of "HTGAWM;" "Ozark:" Drama Series, Laura Linney (Best Actress) and Julia Garner (Best Supporting Actress)

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203506134

    I also don’t think Emmy voters are the types of people that care about or are even aware of such memes. They also don’t strike me as the type of people who would agree with their creation 🙂

    Ha! So true. But I think the thread behind those memes holds more water than the memes themselves, if that makes sense.

    This isn’t to take away from her overall body of work within THT and beyond, but I think some of what I experienced — and I dutifully watched each week — has to do with a lack of continued nuance in her individual performance year over year.

    That goes beyond blocking and shot composition and speaks to, in my opinion, a limitation of facial expressions.

    What worked for two seasons, including that trademark stoic staredown that she actually started perfecting during Mad Men, loses its weight when it’s applied to nearly every major beat. (And I am absolutely, positively NOT talking about those key bedroom moments, for lack of a better term.)

    All that to say, while I won’t be surprised or upset if she gets nominated, I do wonder how much longer that THT magic will last.

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    FYC : J. Smith-Cameron
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    #1203506209

    Imagine comparing Claire Foy to Millie Bobby Brown of all people lol.

    Well you said Jennifer Aniston won because SAG is populist. Millie Bobby Brown who is in one of the most (if not the most) popular show on the planet was nominated twice alongside Claire Foy losing to her both times. If Aniston won because SAG are populist than how comes Brown lost to Foy twice? The answer: Taste

    FYC Emmys : Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"), Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials"), Russell Tovery ("Years and Years"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The Crown") & The Crown, His Dark Materials, Years and Years, Succession and The Affair in all categories. The Politician : Ben Platt, Gwyneth Paltrow, Bette Midler and Judith Light.

    FYC Goldderby Awards : MAURA TIERNEY AND DOMINIC WEST FOR THE FINAL SEASON OF THE AFFAIR

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    thedemonhog
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    #1203506217

    I am not about to move her into the top two, but I do think that Colman can win just because I can imagine the feeling that we had at the Globes resurfacing at the end of Emmy night. She might just be too respected.

    Has anyone made the comparison yet between Pelphrey vs Crudup and last year’s Arquette vs Clarkson?? I just thought of it, Crudup and Clarkson are both really respected character actors who have probably worked with half the town and got early frontrunner status with a SAG nom despite more subdued performances. Then there’s the flashier performance from the latter half of the year in Pelphrey and Arquette. This comparison obviously isn’t perfect, but it does make me think Pelphrey will win.

    Would you believe that I had actually been thinking of this?

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