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  • Stegeo
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    #1203079694

    I don’t understand why people say Oh and Shaw losing guest makes them vulnerable for the big categories lol. Their guest noms exactly is a sign of support and they most likely weren’t gonna win anyway (especially Shaw). The race is still on and both of them can still win. If Oh loses it’ll be because of vote splitting, if Shaw loses, well I guess she was purely a double coattail on 2 popular with the academy shows.

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    ginnala
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    #1203079709

    I mean yes Lynch could have won on her own but she lost to Tiffany Haddish last year. So the possibility of her winning this year due to a vote split is out there. The same can be said about Luke Kirby and SNL guys.

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    Kellyemm
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    #1203079819

    I think the information Shaw not winning gives us is simply that she is not such a monstrous, phenomenal threat that she is able to win a vote split with Scott Thomas – but it may also indicate she is strong enough to cause one by virtue of Scott Thomas not winning either.

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    Atypical
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    #1203079821

    As much as I want Maisie to win, I’m predicting a Julia Garner upset. She’s the only American in the lineup, the vote-split with the “GOT” ladies has to be considered, surprise SAG nod, Drama Series nominee, place to reward “Ozark” if/when Bateman and Linney stumble, etc. If Shaw couldn’t win the less competitive guest actress comedy category, I’m less inclined to believe she’ll win the more competitive supporting actress drama category, unless voters are “waiting” to pool their support to one place. We’ve seen before that voters don’t think the way that we do (re: strategically and sentimentally). Soooo, Garner it is then.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1203079873

    I feel like last night may be popped Headey’s balloon just a bit. The voters showed last night that they aren’t sentimental.

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    leothescorpio
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    #1203080234

    I’m switching from Garner to Shaw. This category always skew older in terms of winners. And although Garner got a SAG nom over Shaw, SAG doesn’t usually indicate an Emmy win.

    Ann Dowd also lost in Guest for The Leftovers and won for The Handmaid’s Tale. Shaw makes the most sense here if we go by stats. I still think that Shaw did nothing this season to justify a nomination let alone a win, but that’s how I felt with Dowd too.

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    Kellyemm
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    #1203080238

    I feel like last night may be popped Headey’s balloon just a bit. The voters showed last night that they aren’t sentimental.

    Fiona’s Gold Derby interview is lovely!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeyZ_M7uC4w

    I agree re the sentimentality. The Guests plus the support of brand new stuff like Russian Doll really cements that for me.

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    kellis
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    #1203080247

    Yeah I finally switched to Shaw. Carice winning would’ve signaled bigger returns for the rest of the actors, but the winners we got last night doesn’t bode well for overdue narratives and the fact that GOT name-checking might not extend to the actors beyond nominations. Shaw gaining enough votes to cause a vote-split for a less-than two minute cameo indicates she has greater support. Ugh, this year’s Emmys just continue to get worse by the second.

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

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    Julian14
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    #1203080249

    So a boring FBI leader or a teen with an obvious accent is gonna beat the phenomenal Lena Headey,  Gwendoline Christie,  Sophie Turner and Maisie Williams who play iconic characters that Will stand the test of time and Will always be remembered. If that happens, it’s absolutely disgusting.

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    Luca
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    #1203080257

    I agree about Shaw, but Julia Garner’s Ruth is just as fantastic. Garner’s accent is absolute perfection and she CARRIES that show. If not Headey/Williams/Christie, then please let it be her.

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    Sean C
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    #1203080262

    So a boring FBI leader or a teen with an obvious accent is gonna beat the phenomenal Lena Headey, Gwendoline Christie, Sophie Turner and Maisie Williams who play iconic characters that Will stand the test of time and Will always be remembered. If that happens, it’s absolutely disgusting.

    Garner, unlike, say, Headey, actually had a substantial role in the season she was nominated for.

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    EsOS
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    #1203080285

    God help us all if Shaw wins

    FYC: Octavia Spencer (Luce) - Best Supporting Actress

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    Riley
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    #1203080361

    In hindsight, this was such an easy win for Lynch: nominated last year, the sole Maisel nominee, Maisel bagged two acting wins last year, showy role and industry vet (plus past Emmy winner).

    This was a classic case of someone losing one year and us misinterpreting that as meaning that the voters are over that person instead of it just meaning that competition was particularly strong in one year. The last time that I remember us getting bitten like this was Jessica Lange winning for the first and third seasons of American Horror Story. She only lost for the second season because Laura Linney briefly entered the field, but we misinterpreted it as meaning that voters were over Lange.

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    Stegeo
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    #1203080384

    I wouldn’t call Tiffany Haddish strong competition lol, but yeah, Lynch’s loss last year was misinterpreted, even tho she was still the frontrunner in predix center.

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    EsOS
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    #1203080400

    Tiffany Haddish was big competition in the sense that she was such a huge breakout star at the time and everyone was talking about her because of  Girls Trip. But her performance (just like any SNL performance) was definitely not Emmy-Worthy.

    FYC: Octavia Spencer (Luce) - Best Supporting Actress

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