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Emmys 2020: What are your last minute changes?

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    David Buchanan
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    #1203720779

    I’ve got Culkin, Strong and Happy Ending.

    Thanks, wolfali! I think Culkin is compelling and I’ll probably switch.

    The only pause I have with Strong is that, yes, like Comer he’s the discovery of the series, but Cox gives the bigger, louder performance à la Comer. Strong feels akin to Sandra Oh last year, ironically, in that they both give more subtle, internally tortured, and nuanced turns. That didn’t pan out for Oh, so I’m not sure it will for Strong, either. I’m still mulling the switch, but I also hate to drop Cox after having him since the beginning.

    I think Maisel losing DGA this year with three episodes speaks to the risk in Directing tonight. Switching to Happy Ending, but I’m so uneasy about it.

    Formerly known as PianoMann.

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    Juanald02
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    #1203720828

    Jeremy Strong instead Brian Cox

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    wolfali
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    #1203720838

    The only pause I have with Strong is that, yes, like Comer he’s the discovery of the series, but Cox gives the bigger, louder performance à la Comer. Strong feels akin to Sandra Oh last year, ironically, in that they both give more subtle, internally tortured, and nuanced turns. That didn’t pan out for Oh, so I’m not sure it will for Strong, either. I’m still mulling the switch, but I also hate to drop Cox after having him since the beginning.

    This is a valid point but then I also look at the recent history of this category and of duos at the Emmys. Since 2015 this category has tended to award actors who haven’t won Emmys (unless you’re Sterling K. Brown). In terms of leading duos at the Emmys we’ve seen time and time again we’ve seen closer to the voting period how one half of the duo ends up gathering steam and one way we see this is through TCA. We’ve seen people like Nicole Kidman, Sterling K. Brown and Jodie Comer recently win Emmys after being singled out for their performances with TCA nominations over their co-stars. Sure critics don’t vote at the Emmys in the acting categories but the fact that Strong has been singled out more recently through his appearances in pretty much every roundtable possible and through his support from critics makes me think he has the upper hand here as the ‘buzzier’ contender.

    I would love to see both Cox and Strong tie tonight!

    I also agree with you about Cabbage vs Happy Ending. Last year Maisel lost to Fleabag in a sweep but I don’t think Maisel had as strong a directorial showcase last year as it does this year and although I am predicting Happy Ending I have this feeling that the directors branch may not be as passionate for it as they were for Fleabag (which was noted for the style in its direction as a highlight of the show).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203720852

    I really, really want to predict Giancarlo Esposito in Supporting Actor. But I am just not able to swap out Crudup. I have a gut feeling that Esposito is winning this award.

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    Wanda
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    #1203720861

    Oh is winning!

    Last.fm: https://www.last.fm/es/user/Into_You
    https://letterboxd.com/cherry123/

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    estrelas
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    #1203720891

    Thanks, wolfali! I think Culkin is compelling and I’ll probably switch. The only pause I have with Strong is that, yes, like Comer he’s the discovery of the series, but Cox gives the bigger, louder performance à la Comer. Strong feels akin to Sandra Oh last year, ironically, in that they both give more subtle, internally tortured, and nuanced turns. That didn’t pan out for Oh, so I’m not sure it will for Strong, either. I’m still mulling the switch, but I also hate to drop Cox after having him since the beginning. I think Maisel losing DGA this year with three episodes speaks to the risk in Directing tonight. Switching to Happy Ending, but I’m so uneasy about it.

    You have a nice point but don’t forget Comer was seen as the standout and had much more passion. With Cox and Strong, the scenario is quite different. There isn’t a consensus on who’s the standout of the two but I do sense a much bigger passion towards Strong. I did have Cox winning but I ended up switching to Strong. He seems to be a passion pick for many.

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    angel88401
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    #1203720911

    I’m swapping to Toni Collette even though it’s probably not going to happen because I want to manifest at least one win for Unbelievable, which was ridiculously snubbed this year.

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    David Buchanan
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    #1203720922

    With Cox and Strong, the scenario is quite different. There isn’t a consensus on who’s the standout of the two but I do sense a much bigger passion towards Strong. I did have Cox winning but I ended up switching to Strong. He seems to be a passion pick for many.

    Agreed entirely. I’m really just belaboring the point until I inevitably switch to Strong.

    Formerly known as PianoMann.

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    William Gillquist
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    #1203720931

    As long as either Cox or Strong win, I’d consider this to be an absolute win.

    FYC Oscars: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mark Rylance (Trail of the Chicago 7), Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Soul (Best Picture, Best Animated Feature Film, and Best Original Screenplay)

    FYC Grammys: Circles (Album of the Year), Good News (Record and Song of the Year), Future Nostalgia (Album of the Year), Don't Start Now (Record and Song of the Year), Everything I Wanted (Record and Song of the Year)

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203720938

    Changes in the last week:
    Alik Sakharov → Mark Mylod
    Steve Carell → Jeremy Strong
    Tony Shalhoub → Daniel Levy
    Feel great about Strong and Levy, but I felt better about Sakharov when I had him than I do about Mylod now if that makes sense.

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    Miles
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    #1203720942

    Sarah Snook for Drama Supporting Actress
    Yvonne Orji for Comedy Supporting Actress

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203720976

    Ranking shifts:

    I moved “Happy Ending” up in directing as I considered a Schitt’s Creek sweep, but I ended up not boarding that train and that coincided with The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel unexpectedly variably beating The Crown, Stranger Things, Watchmen and Westworld, so I now have Amy Sherman-Palladino in second, ahead of it.

    Moved Fiona Shaw up to third. It dawned on me how much the academy is in for Killing Eve. If they could like it enough for it not only to overcome a vote-split last year, but for the leads to swap positions and then for both of them to come back this year, they can recognize that this was Shaw’s best season. So there is an argument for why Garner and Shaw would swap positions, which is something that I had rejected for most of the season.

    Westworld was shut out at the Creative Arts. A past CAS winner losing to a comedy in sound is a bad look, as is a past interactive Emmy winner losing to a show on its only nomination. So I moved Jeffrey Wright down two spots to sixth. I moved up Bradley Whitford because the Creative Arts demonstrated a capacity to continue to award his show and I moved up Kieran Culkin because I feel that Cherry Jones’s win over Harriet Walter speaks better for his chances than Matthew Macfadyen.

    I moved up “Hunting” to fourth, which means that I now have “Aberfan” in fifth. I really feel that Andrij Parekh’s Boar on the Floor has been underestimated as a threat and possibly even a dark horse with Succession seeming strong-ish at the Creative Arts.

    Moved Toni Collette up to fourth, as I feel like I have not heard anything about Margo Martindale in a while.

    And I moved my 500 bet from drama lead actor (because I no longer have Carell) to drama writing (with 16/1 odds). Comedy directing, drama directing, limited supporting actor and limited supporting actress would offer better payouts, but they are too risky. My other super bet is on Paul Mescal (12/1), although I am less confident about him than I was a week ago.

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    True Tenor
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    #1203720992

    I swapped Eugene Levy with Ramy because I don’t think Schitt’s can sweep everything.

    Also moved Culkin and Snook to my number one position for supporting actor/actress in a drama series over Esposito/HBC, tho don’t feel great about these moves.

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    OneAndOnly
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    #1203721002

    Ramy Youssef → Ted Danson
    Tony Shalhoub → Dan Levy
    Paul Mescal → Hugh Jackman

    Ranking shifts:

    Moved up Zendaya
    Moved down Mark Ruffalo
    Moved up Yvonne Orji

    Still a bit undecided on:

    Limited Supp. Actress (currently have 1. Smart 2. Aduba 3. Collette)
    Drama Actress (currently have 1. Aniston 2. Zendaya 3. Linney, yeah I know)
    Comedy Directing (currently have 1. Its Comedy or Cabbage 2. Happy Ending 3. Miakhalifa.mov)

     

    Have a great day if you see this!

    FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
    FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Male/Straight/BLM

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    Stranger Among Us
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    #1203721072

    It’s Comedy or Cabbage –> Happy Ending (Comedy Directing) I still don’t know what to do with miakhalifa.mov but I’m trying not to overthink this category.

    Crudup–> Culkin As much as I want MacFadyen to win this, Culkin seems to be the one who can take this.

    Bateman –> Strong I was worried Cox and Strong might vote split but we’ve seen lots of passion picks for Creative Arts and I’m just going with it.

    Yahya —> Parsons Seems like there is no clear consensus on which Watchmen actor is better liked so Parson should be the one benefiting from vote splitting.

    Jackman–> Mescal The only place to reward Normal People and Mescal has the performance and the hype. Bad Education on the other hand has no hype. Ruffalo should be winning but I don’t think many people have watched his show as it’s rather depressing.

    I want to say Zendaya over Linney but I feel like Linney might be the only win for Ozark and I don’t see them letting Ozark go empty handed. This category has been full of passion picks in the last few years and that might give Linney the edge over Zendaya and Aniston.

    Snook–> HBC Idk why I just am constantly flipping the two.

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