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Emmy Awards 2018 Comedy Predictions and Analysis

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  • Teridax
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    #1202586338

    I do not know what you are talking about with “Teddy Perkins”. It has 9.7 on IMDb, the best rating of the series (2636 ratings). 100% of the thirteen reviews that Rotten Tomatoes tallied were positive, with a 9.12 average rating. It absolutely would have carried the entire Atlanta bloc in writing to challenge The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.

    “Alligator Man” and “Barbershop” are more likely to split votes and also less likely to inspire passion in the first place. The writers’ branch is one of the few for which episodes can still matter, like when “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” beat the American Crime Story pilot written by the creators. If an Atlanta episode does win, it will be “Alligator Man” because it is the season premiere that establishes the season’s weighty Robbin’ Season premise, was written by Donald Glover and has a memorable set piece involving an alligator. “Barbershop” is much less important and actually pretty comedic (read: light) by Atlanta standards.

    I do not see “Teddy Perkins” overcoming vote-splitting in directing. Names make a big difference with them, as they are actually on the ballot. They will actively have to choose between “Teddy Perkins” and Donald Glover.

    I agree with all of this except the last part. I think Glover admitting onstage in front of millions in his Emmy speech for Directing last year that Murai deserved it more won’t be forgotten and even recent (as in the past few years) “The Knick” Emmy nominee Steven Soderbergh called “Teddy Perkins” in his own words, “The Most Beautifully Photographed Half Hour of TV I’ve Ever Seen.” High praise from an Oscar winning filmmaker. I just think the name of the episode itself will be enough to push Perkins over the edge to a Directing win. That episode is too legendary to ignore and the industry knows it.

    https://www.indiewire.com/2018/04/steven-soderbergh-raves-atlanta-teddy-perkins-best-half-hour-tv-1201949715/

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    Teridax
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    #1202586346

    I just realized GLOW was snubbed for Costumes! It is one thing for the show to be snubbed for Marc Maron, Alison Brie, Picture Editing, and Writing, but more than anything else I honestly think that Costumes snub shows just how much the Emmys did not care at all for this show. I wasn’t a fan of the show in general but I still thought that those costumes the women wore as each of their distinct and diverse characters really stood out as certainly some of the most memorable of the year. It also got into other below-the-line categories like Production Design and Cinematography, which makes its Costumes snub even more bizarre to me and makes me think that it came in dead last or close to last place in many of those tech categories.

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    probablyROB
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    #1202586421

    @riley Rotten Tomatoes also said Baby Driver was one of the best movies of last year and don’t get me started on IMDB episode ratings.

    I should clarify that I don’t think Teddy Perkins is a bad episode. It’s weird and fun and it certainly stood out as an episode of TV. Just that the discussions I have encountered about it have not been as widely praised as IMDB ratings might indicate. I’m not sure how someone can defend it being unarguably and unequivocally the shows most well-received episode within the show’s community and also say it will suffer from vote-splitting with itself. The way I see it is if your first premise is correct (an accurate representation not that the numbers are false) it will win. I don’t believe the episode is as well-received internally and will get enough last place votes to prevent it from winning. I could be wrong, though.

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    probablyROB
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    #1202586423

    Bojack is my favorite show and I think one of the two episodes would have been a deserving nomination over Barry’s Pilot but “Loud, Fast, and Keep Going” was extremely well-written and is currently my pick to win. Silicon Valley has always been dog crap though so if anyone were to get dropped in favor of anything else it should be that.

    Funny you should say that, because I thought “Chapter Seven: Loud, Fast, and Keep Going” of Barry was superior to the pilot and would make an incredible win-worthy submission for Bill Hader. “Chapter One” did a solid job setting up the storyline and characters, but it wasn’t more impressive than the “Ruthie” episode of Bojack, so even if you simply took out the Barry premiere OR the season finale of the now stale Silicon and replaced it with that WGA-nominated Bojack episode I can think of very few people who would have complained.

    They didn’t submit them but “Time’s Arrow” and “the Old Sugerman Place” are winnable submissions to me. But Bojack is always going to suffer from being animated at the Emmys which is unfortunate because it’s the best written show currently on TV.

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    moviefan61794
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    #1202586427

    Comedy Series, Writing and Directing firmly feel like races between Atlanta and Maisel. I wouldn’t even say that it is likely one sweeps, and there could be a Directing/Writing split that keeps us in suspense. My preference would be Maisel for Writing and Atlanta (“Teddy Perkins”) for Directing, but Donald Glover’s name carries major weight so I could see it being the other way around. For Series, I’m inclined to give Atlanta the edge right now but honestly both shows did exactly what they had to do on Emmy nomination morning to solidify their status as the shows to beat.

    The overperformance of Barry leads me to think Hader has a shot against Glover, but I think this is still the most obvious place to award Glover for most people. Hader has a shot though. It’s not as clear cut as I once suspected. Brosnahan feels solidly out front. There are arguments you can make for a lot of these other actresses, but they don’t compare to this breakout role in a show that Emmy voters clearly really like. Maybe Adlon with an outside shot because of, I don’t know, everything she’s dealt with this year?

    Please don’t let Alec Baldwin win again. I think (and hope) people have moved past that impression. It was a warranted win last year but not this time around. You can make strong arguments for Henry, Winkler and Burgess. Henry is a standout on an Emmy favorite. Winkler is a legend who has never won an Emmy. Burgess has come so close every season so far and the race is open enough that he could take it. I think it’s one of those three but I’m not sure who will take it yet, so I’m currently going with Henry. McKinnon is a good bet, but I can also make an argument for Borstein, Mullally and Metcalf. I think Beetz played too small a role to have a big chance here and Gilpin is a great standout but I just don’t see it happening this time. Borstein is a veteran with a breakout role on an Emmy favorite, Mullally will get all of the Will & Grace support, and Metcalf is having the year of her career. I’ll stick with McKinnon but maybe moving Borstein up behind her.

    I think Glover, Brown or Williams can win Guest Actor. They love Glover and it was a good episode, and even that basic an argument is enough to win in these crapshoot guest categories. Brown is also loved, but they definitely didn’t see this episode of Brooklyn Nine-Nine (or, let’s face it, any episodes of B9-9 this season). Williams had a standout guest episode of an Emmy favorite show. I don’t want to estimate Glover winning everywhere he’s nominated, but maybe I’ll change that prediction later. Glover it is. Fey and Lynch are probably the frontrunners based on name recognition, which is a huge factor in the guest categories. At least Lynch had a good performance, but Fey was hurt by the writers not stepping up to the plate for her. Haddish had a superior episode and she is red hot right now. Shannon and Rudolph maybe have an outside chance because they are beloved. But I’ll go with Lynch right now, but could easily switch to Haddish.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1202586449

    There is absolutely no way that Tituss Burgess wins this year…or any year. He’s had three clear shots at a win and they have ignored him every single time for lesser performances and lesser submissions. How can anybody possibly think he can win against Henry Winkler at a time when tapes don’t matter that much anymore? He’s such a legend and hasn’t won an Emmy yet and he’s in a show that massivey overperformed. Even if the submission is shit, you can’t predict Burgess over him. Then you have an Bryan Tyree Henry with so much buzz for a show that went from 6 to 16 nominations just like that, proving how much of a favorite this team is this year.

    And then of course we have to believe that Baldwin and Shalhoub are gonna fuck us over again, like they’ve done before.

    It would be a fucking dream to see Tituss Burgess win an Emmy, but…no.

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    Guest 2018
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    #1202586453

    Maybe Adlon with an outside shot because of, I don’t know, everything she’s dealt with this year?

    What has Adlon ‘dealt with’ that wasn’t of her own making? She stuck with the predator until there was evidence that was so overwhelming that there was no choice for her but to sack CK.

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    Eden
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    #1202586459

    I love how both David and Danson are nominated in the same category and the same year. I believe Danson benefited from being next to David on the ballot.

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    J H
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    #1202586474

    Shows with 3+ major individual (i.e. not program) noms:
    2018 SNL*, Atlanta, Barry, Maisel IV
    2017 Transparent*, SNL*, Veep, Atlanta, Silicon Valley V
    2016 Veep, Silicon Valley, Master of None, Transparent IV
    2015 Last Man on Earth*, Veep, Louie, Transparent IV
    2014 Episodes*, Modern Family, Louie, Orange, Veep V
    2013 Modern Family, 30 Rock, Girls, Louie, Veep V
    2012 Louie*, New Girl*, Parks and Recreation*, Modern Family, Girls V
    2011 Modern Family, 30 Rock II Wow, just 2.
    2010 Modern Family, Glee, 30 Rock III

    Average of 4 a year, vs. drama’s avg 6 a year.
    2012 was a really weird year; most of the shows with 3+ individual major noms missed Comedy Series.
    Interesting how just 2 years ago, McKinnon was the only supporting nominee from SNL.

    For Program nominees only:
    2009: 30 Rock, Conchords, Office = 3
    Mad Men, Damages. = 2
    2008: 30 Rock, Entourage, Office, Half. = 4
    Mad Men, Boston Legal, Damages. = 3
    2007: 30 Rock, Entourage, Office, Half Men, Ugly Betty = 5 (Extras)
    Sopranos, Boston Legal, Grey’s = 3
    2006: Curb = 1
    24, Grey, Sopranos, West Wing = 4
    2005: Raymond, Arrested, Desperate, W&G = 4
    Lost, West Wing = 2
    2004: Arrested, Curb, Raymond, SATC = 4
    Sopranos, West Wing = 2
    2003: Raymond, Curb, Sex, Grace = 4
    Sopranos, West Wing, Six Feet = 3
    2002: Friends, Raymond, Sex, Grace = 4
    West Wing, Six Feet, 24 = 3
    2001: Sex, Raymond, Malcolm, Grace = 4
    West Wing, Sopranos = 2
    2000: Grace, Raymond, Frasier, Sex, Friends = 5 (Malcolm)
    ER, West Wing, Sopranos, Practice = 4

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    Justmimusicmon
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    #1202586481

    I think Glover, Brown or Williams can win Guest Actor.

    I’m in agreement with this.

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    Guest 2018
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    #1202586483

    I love how both David and Danson are nominated in the same category and the same year. I believe Danson benefited from being next to David on the ballot.

    I believe Larry David benefited from being next to Danson’s name. CYE is yesterday’s garbage. It should have stayed on permanent hiatus.

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    Eden
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    #1202586490

    I love how both David and Danson are nominated in the same category and the same year. I believe Danson benefited from being next to David on the ballot.

    I believe Larry David benefited from being next to Danson’s name. CYE is yesterday’s garbage. It should have stayed on permanent hiatus.

    1) Danson couldn’t get in last year 2) David was an obvious nominee, having more than double votes than Danson in the Gold Derby prediction center.

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    Riley
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    #1202586593

    I’m not sure how someone can defend it being unarguably and unequivocally the shows most well-received episode within the show’s community and also say it will suffer from vote-splitting with itself. The way I see it is if your first premise is correct (an accurate representation not that the numbers are false) it will win. I don’t believe the episode is as well-received internally and will get enough last place votes to prevent it from winning.

    There are no last-place votes anymore; they only vote for the winner. As I was trying to say, “Teddy Perkins” can take down any other episode of the show, but I would not say that it can take down Donald Glover. What episode is attached to him is irrelevant.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Teridax
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    #1202586598

    I love how both David and Danson are nominated in the same category and the same year. I believe Danson benefited from being next to David on the ballot.

    I believe Larry David benefited from being next to Danson’s name. CYE is yesterday’s garbage. It should have stayed on permanent hiatus.

    1) Danson couldn’t get in last year 2) David was an obvious nominee, having more than double votes than Danson in the Gold Derby prediction center.

    I would normally agree with you Eden, but Curb severely under-performed. In spite of its recent ACE Eddie win it couldn’t get a single Picture Editing nod, never mind its snub for Directing. I think being next to Cheers veteran Danson whose NBC fantasy show had way more buzz this 2nd season than it had by this time last year.

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    VeraDoyle
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    #1202586607

    I know Metcalf has the story and McKinnon the lazy-votes, but can Borstein actually win this?

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