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Emmy Awards 2018 Drama Predictions (Part 3)

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  • Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1202631810

    If Foy can beat Newton, then she can certainly beat Wood.

    Yeah, that is why I said “even Wood”, but could’ve she have beaten the rest? It is really uncertain.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202631827

    Can someone convince me on Harbour with an argument that doesn’t include that he was nominated for SAG and won critics choice? I’m currently predicting him to win and don’t really know why because the buzz on ST is very different to what it was at those awards shows.

    I just feel like those awards nominations prove that he has a lot of support from the acting branch, especially that SAG nom opposite lead actors. I also feel like he’s been waiting for the path to be cleared and it most certainly is now with the open race that is supporting actor this year.

    Critics’ Choice mean nothing for the television industry in regards to literally anything, they are 2 entirely separate entities. SAG has a pro-Netflix bias, plus Harbour clearly got that solo SAG nod only for Season 2 because SAG was trying to be Emmy sheep after they nominated him for Season 1, then the Emmys nominated Harbour again both on lazy inertia and because they knew the show “Stranger Things.” Like I said, Schnapp’s snub could be interpreted as evidence the actors branch didn’t even watch Season 2 and Ryder’s snub could also be evidence they weren’t fans of the show to begin with, unlike SAG which not only awarded the show Ensemble but nominated Ryder. The race for Supporting Actor logically cannot be called “open” when there is a 2-time winner in contention for the most nominated show with the Emmys this year whose show got double the acting nods of Harbour’s show, and another contender is an Emmy-winning (for “Chicago Hope” in the mid-90s, granted) veteran who is seen by some as overdue for his role on his 1-time Drama Series-winning show. The arguments for Harbour winning are so pull of holes they make Swiss cheese look solid.

    But they nominated Purser, so there was absolutely passion for the show. I will never be able to understand how they snubbed not only the biggest name but also the best performer on the show, Ryder. Kind of ridiculous. I’m fine if Harbour doesn’t win, he never wowed me. I am rooting for Matt Smith and might put him in first. He did such a great job and really has a great episode. Mandy Patinkin would be my second choice. Very underrated.

    Purser was clearly a filler nominee since those Guest categories always, and I mean always, end up having at least one of those. Plus, she was admittedly helped by Barb’s meme status, not because they loved the show. Since you mentioned Smith I could see him winning but only if The Crown sweeps its other 2 acting categories, which looks unlikely given the love for THT. On the other hand, I could definitely see Kirby or Foy winning with each other or by themselves but with Smith still losing. Smith is the least likely to win of the Crown’s acting nominees, he is just so stoic and subtle in his role that I think it will hurt him in the end.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202631835

    I thought Winona was awful in season 1 of Stranger Things she wasn’t worthy of a nomination.

    I thought I was alone… from the beginning, I get her character was supposed to be really kooky, but she was just TOO over the top in her kookiness for my tastes, though I did get more used to her in the last couple episodes of the first season. I barely remember her from Season 2. Funny how she went Supporting in S1 when she was more of a Lead and then went Lead for S2 when she was more Supporting.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    AviChristiaans
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    #1202631890

    If Foy can beat Newton, then she can certainly beat Wood.

    Yeah, that is why I said “even Wood”, but could’ve she have beaten the rest? It is really uncertain.

    How is that uncertain? A voting body of 116 000 plus members gave her the Drama Lead Actress award TWICE. Consecutively. She would probably have won it for a third time next year had Olivia Coleman not taken over the role, which Coleman is most probably winning as well.

    Undermining and trying to diminish Foy’s wins at SAG is just crazy. She beat the Emmy champ, and everyone else.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1202631894

    If Foy can beat Newton, then she can certainly beat Wood.

    Yeah, that is why I said “even Wood”, but could’ve she have beaten the rest? It is really uncertain.

    How is that uncertain? A voting body of 116 000 plus members gave her the Drama Lead Actress award TWICE. Consecutively. She would probably have won it for a third time next year had Olivia Coleman not taken over the role, which Coleman is most probably winning as well.

    Undermining and trying to diminish Foy’s wins at SAG is just crazy. She beat the Emmy champ, and everyone else.

    Maybe you did not see my original comment, the problem is that she did not beat everyone else, here is what I wrote:

    I just watched the last slugfest about drama actress and the argument with the SAG wins for Claire Foy made by Amanda seems very convincing, but after that I checked who she beat, and frankly, her competence was not very strong.

    In the last 10 years the only supporting actress that have won in the SAG is Maggie Smith, a legend that they adore, all other winners are lead actresses. Some may argue that Lange also won for supporting, since she won for Murder House, but Constance Langdon was a lead in my opinion, and even if she was not, Lange is big legend like Smith.

    Now that we have that clarified, lets check who Foy beat:

    For her first win she beat THREE supporting actresses – Millie Bobby Brown, Thandie Newton and Winona Ryder and just one other lead – Robin Wright (we all know that Wright is just a perennial nominee, she never wins, except that random Globe for her first season, which was also her weakest).

    For her second win she beat one supporting actress – Millie Bobby Brown, two weak leads – Robin Wright and Laura Linney (her only nomination for major awards, obviously helped by the pro-Netflix bias of the SAG’s) and one strong lead – Elisabeth Moss.

    So, we know that she can beat Moss in a weak field, but can she do that with equally strong nominees like Maslany, Russell, Oh and even Wood? I really doubt that. And I know that Russell and Wood has never been nominated by the SAG’s, that Maslany has just one nomination with them and that Oh has not yet been eligible for that role, but we all know that they are beloved and strong (and even rewarded – Maslany) with the acting branch of the Emmys, so it will be much more difficult for Foy. I am staying with Moss.

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    DvirBA
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    #1202632076

    All the sites are posting their predictions and 98% predicting The Handmaid’s Tale At basically every category it’s nominated in, except maybe Supporting Actor and I don’t know what to think about this

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    methaddictions
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    #1202632081

    All the sites are posting their predictions and 98% predicting The Handmaid’s Tale At basically every category it’s nominated in, except maybe Supporting Actor and I don’t know what to think about this

    I’m not surprised.

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    DvirBA
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    #1202632312

    All the sites are posting their predictions and 98% predicting The Handmaid’s Tale At basically every category it’s nominated in, except maybe Supporting Actor and I don’t know what to think about this

    I’m not surprised.

    i can understand predicting it in Drama only because of last year (though I’d still be extremely disappointed if it wins there, if not GoT it better be the Americans or even the Crown imo) but what baffles me the most is the writing and directing categories since I honestly see no good reason for it to win Directing and the Americans will be much more deserving in writing.

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    Riley
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    #1202632320

    I honestly see no good reason for it to win Directing

    It won last year, it won DGA, Kari Skogland is the only woman nominated in the category, it does not face vote-splitting like Game of Thrones (which arguably did Game of Thrones in at DGA) and it is the drama series frontrunner, which matters because drama series has matched up with directing all three years of the popularity system. I am not predicting it, but there are plenty of good reasons.

    Can someone convince me on Harbour with an argument that doesn’t include that he was nominated for SAG and won critics choice?

    Harbour has arguably become the face of the show, which helps in a supporting race. He did also just win Gold Derby, despite facing internal competition, which he does not at the Emmys.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    methaddictions
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    #1202632323

    Just watched the “Assassins” episode of The Crown and wow.. John and Claire are excellent I kinda want her to win now Kirby was also great in “Pride & Joy”.

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    Macca
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    #1202632326

    Just watched the “Assassins” episode of The Crown and wow.. John and Claire are excellent I kinda want her to win now Kirby was also great in “Pride & Joy”.

    Season 2 is better.

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202632327

    I honestly see no good reason for it to win Directing

    It won last year, it won DGA, Kari Skogland is the only woman nominated in the category, it does not face vote-splitting like Game of Thrones (which arguably did Game of Thrones in at DGA) and it is the drama series frontrunner, which matters because drama series has matched up with directing all three years of the popularity system. I am not predicting it, but there are plenty of good reasons.

    Can someone convince me on Harbour with an argument that doesn’t include that he was nominated for SAG and won critics choice?

    Harbour has arguably become the face of the show, which helps in a supporting race. He did also just win Gold Derby, despite facing internal competition, which he does not at the Emmys.

    I already debunked most of this. Skogland being the only woman won’t help her win Drama Directing since last year Morano was only the 3rd woman to ever win that category and that was when THT had a 2nd Directing nod and the DGA win notably came for the first season and since there wasn’t much memorable in the episode itself Skogland isn’t a big enough name to win solely as a name-check. Oh, and it clearly is not the Drama Series frontrunner unless you are referring strictly speaking to Goldderby odds. The reception for the 2nd season kind of reminds me of Westworld last year where there are passionate fans (more for THT this year I admit) but the polarized nature of the show still can’t get it a majority consensus of votes even on this plurality voting system. I could actually buy the DGA-snubbed Stephen Daldry winning (which you are predicting) since The Crown won Casting and he is certainly a more recognizable name as a “prestige” director. See my above comments for why the Harbour thing is ridiculous and why his Golddderby win means nothing in regards to passion in the TV industry since he only won it because of “sheep / let’s just try to predict the Emmy winners” voting with our awards, as has been known to happen in the past. I am also pretty sure that Millie Bobby Brown as the most iconic character Eleven is the “face” of Stranger Things if anyone.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    Riley
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    #1202632358

    Skogland being the only woman won’t help her win Drama Directing

    Apple-in-a-bag-of-oranges is a thing that we use and see all the time.

    Skogland isn’t a big enough name to win solely as a name-check.

    Never said that she would win off her name.

    Oh, and it clearly is not the Drama Series frontrunner unless you are referring strictly speaking to Goldderby odds.

    What are you basing it off of then? Metacritic? Betting sites? They all have The Handmaid’s Tale as the aggregate odds-on frontrunner.

    See my above comments for why the Harbour thing is ridiculous

    I skip over a lot of your posts because you write too damn much.

    I already debunked most of this.

    At this point, I do not really know what you are referring to. The first reason to predict The Handmaid’s Tale in directing is inertia. Stuff has inertia until it does not and we will not know if The Handmaid’s Tale’s time is up until the Emmys. There is not much to debunk there. Again though, I am not even predicting it. All that I am saying is that I get it if you are and I already have several reasons ready to go to explain the win in hindsight if it happens.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202632365

    Skogland being the only woman won’t help her win Drama Directing

    Apple-in-a-bag-of-oranges is a thing that we use and see all the time.

    Skogland isn’t a big enough name to win solely as a name-check.

    Never said that she would win off her name.

    Oh, and it clearly is not the Drama Series frontrunner unless you are referring strictly speaking to Goldderby odds.

    What are you basing it off of then? Metacritic? Betting sites? They all have The Handmaid’s Tale as the aggregate odds-on frontrunner.

    See my above comments for why the Harbour thing is ridiculous

    I skip over a lot of your posts because you write too damn much.

    I already debunked most of this.

    At this point, I do not really know what you are referring to. The first reason to predict The Handmaid’s Tale in directing is inertia. Stuff has inertia until it does not and we will not know if The Handmaid’s Tale’s time is up until the Emmys. There is not much to debunk there. Again though, I am not even predicting it. All that I am saying is that I get it if you are and I already have several reasons ready to go to explain the win in hindsight if it happens.

    I only ever write so much because I actually bother to give detailed and thorough analysis of any argument I am making, so that there is no confusion and I don’t need to clarify anything after. Make my points to be bulletproof. Even in this #MeToo era, I don’t think Skogland’s gender alone is enough of an “apple in the bag of oranges,” but I can see how you might think that. The only acceptable reason I have heard for predicting THT in Directing and especially Series is “inertia.” I don’t think that will be enough, but again feel free to disagree there. By “debunking” I was referring to every argument made in favor of Harbour as some kind of “obvious frontrunner.” I would do those betting sites by the way on pure confidence in some of these “upsets” like Dinklage, Henry, and even Game of Thrones for Series, but I don’t gamble over the internet as a personal rule.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    Luca Giliberti
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    #1202632370

    Anyone who says Skogland doesn’t deserve it, go back and watch the episode like I did yesterday. It’s a very understated episode, but it’s so beautifully directed. It’s so poignant. You go on this journey with these characters in this episode. I found myself going through the same pain that Moira was going through, that’s great if a director can achieve that.

    Besides, why does the best directed episode always have to be the most directed? Podeswa’s direction is flawless but so is Skogland’s and Daldry’s IMO.

    FYC Oscars 2019: Viola Davis (Widows) - Best Actress

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