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Emmy Awards 2018 Movie and Limited Series Predictions and Analysis

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  • VeraDoyle
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    #1202586147

    The Tale misses out on writing/directing and all of a sudden people are acting like Dern is knocked out of the running. Wtf? She’s obviously still winning. All along it was primarily a lead actress vehicle. Directing and writing prospects were also possible, but never as widely predicted as Actress Dockery may be in a highly nominated show, but her unmemorable borderline supporting performance only got nominated because she rode the show’s coattails and is nothing more than filler. Falco, Paulson and King are name-recognition fillers in shows no one cares about, and it’s not like Biel is in a show that got a ton of nominations either. Stop overthinking it.

    So basically you are biased AGAINST Dockery and you base you predictions on this alone. Good luck with that. I also think Dern is winning, but Dockery is well-liked on her fourth nomination and people loved her on Godless. Anything can happen.

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    Gabriel
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    #1202586150

    I’m not biased against Dockery. I know most people here love her because of Downton Abbey, but the truth is that most critics didn’t even single her out in Godless, and the role wasn’t even that lead-y or memorable. It was Daniels and Wever that were the most talked about performances.

    She rode the show’s coattails to a nomination, and the category was weak this year. Sorry if her fans don’t want to believe that, but it’s the truth. But yes, I agree if she surprise-wins it’s because she has residual goodwill from Downton Abbey.

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    VeraDoyle
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    #1202586158

    I’m not biased against Dockery. I know most people here love her because of Downton Abbey, but the truth is that most critics didn’t even single her out in Godless, and the role wasn’t even that lead-y or memorable. It was Daniels and Wever that were the most talked about performances. She rode the show’s coattails to a nomination, and the category was weak this year. Sorry if her fans don’t want to believe that, but it’s the truth. But yes, I agree if she surprise-wins it’s because she has residual goodwill from Downton Abbey.

    It isn’t the truth. It’s your version of the truth. And to be honest your opinion is full of biased statements. I understand that you didn’t find her worthy of a nomination or you didn’t find her memorable, but the voters did.

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    Pulp
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    #1202586184

    The Tale flopped. Nobody saw it. People saw The Sinner, we know that even though Biel was the only nomination. The Tale was only nominated for actress and movie. It should’ve done better. That’s why I have Biel winning.

    I don’t get your point. Yes the Tale flopped but so did The Sinner. Just because we saw it coming doesn’t make it less of a flop than The Tale. And like you said, people saw it, so what’s its excuse?

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    Someone
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    #1202586185

    The Tale flopped. Nobody saw it. People saw The Sinner, we know that even though Biel was the only nomination. The Tale was only nominated for actress and movie. It should’ve done better. That’s why I have Biel winning.

    I don’t get your point. Yes the Tale flopped but so did The Sinner. Just because we saw it coming doesn’t make it less of a flop than The Tale. And like you said, people saw it, so what’s its excuse?

     

    If you are talking about ratings here (which I think you are ?) The Sinner didn’t flop at all. It was even more watched than ACS Versace.

    • This reply was modified 6 days ago by  Someone.
    • This reply was modified 6 days ago by  Someone.

    Yes ?

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    Pulp
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    #1202586189

    If you are talking about ratings here (which I think you are ?) The Sinner didn’t flop at all. It was even more watched than ACS Versace.

    I was talking about flopping in terms of nominations, not ratings

     

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    VeraDoyle
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    #1202586195

    We are talking about Jessica Biel and Laura Dern, though. Two different actresses, with one of them being a respected veteran having the time of her life (with all the BLL success). Even if she’d be the only nomination of her project, I’d predict Dern to do good. Twin Peaks was a complete flop in acting categories. Lynch probably made the cut because his colleges respect him enough to vote on him. So I wouldn’t hold that snub against Dern. And if anything, it just helps the voters to vote on Laura. They don’t have to look at the list and think if they should be voting on her in supporting or lead, or both. I don’t think that Biel has an actual shot, no matter how good she is in The Sinner. I think she is 4th most likely after Dern, Dockery and King (the new Emmy-fav).

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    Teridax
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    #1202586229

    I’m not biased against Dockery. I know most people here love her because of Downton Abbey, but the truth is that most critics didn’t even single her out in Godless, and the role wasn’t even that lead-y or memorable. It was Daniels and Wever that were the most talked about performances.

    She rode the show’s coattails to a nomination, and the category was weak this year. Sorry if her fans don’t want to believe that, but it’s the truth. But yes, I agree if she surprise-wins it’s because she has residual goodwill from Downton Abbey.

    Hardly. Michelle Dockery has passion as the strong female lead of Godless and I would call her an even safer bet than Jeff Daniels by this point, who has stronger competition in Supporting from Brandon Victor Dixon and Edgar Ramirez with both of their shows getting double-digit Emmy nods as well. Also, Dockery has the I.O.U. factor from her Downton Abbey days. I am no fan of Godless or Downton Abbey at all and haven’t seen Jesus Christ Superstar Live In Concert or Versace so you are actually hearing a completely objective analysis. If Laura Dern was going to win then “14-second Emmy nominee” Ellen Burstyn should easily have been nominated, especially since she was actually quite decent in The Tale itself. Jessica Biel has no chance since Bill Pullman was snubbed so bad in spite of the focused campaign USA had for The Sinner that they nominated Waco’s John Leguizamo and Michael Stuhlbarg from The Looming Tower over him. Biel is D.O.A. as Regina King and Edie Falco with all of them being the only nominees for their shows in general. Paulson could have won if Cult was loved enough for Evan Peters to be nominated for his acclaimed performance, but she already won an Emmy for O.J. so I think most Emmy voters will think she is taken care of. I hate to break it to you, but TV Movie/Mini Lead Actress seems to be strictly between Michelle Dockery, Michelle Dockery, and Michelle Dockery, with a possible upset by dark horse Michelle Dockery.

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    KarlVillalobos
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    #1202586247

    Oh come on, Criss deserves that Emmy! he’s not just some typical hot and young performer…. thank God he worked with Murphy.

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    Pulp
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    #1202586261

    Lol Michelle Dockery is not winning. There’s no IOU for Downton Abbey, that performance wasn’t popular enough to give her overdue status, and this performance really has no buzz. She’s probably coming in last just because everyone else is much more popular than her within the industry plus Biel who actually got CC & GG nods that Dockery missed out on.

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    Teridax
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    #1202586263

    Lol Michelle Dockery is not winning. There’s no IOU for Downton Abbey, that performance wasn’t popular enough to give her overdue status, and this performance really has no buzz. She’s probably coming in last just because everyone else is much more popular than her within the industry plus Biel who actually got CC & GG nods that Dockery missed out on.

    Godless has buzz and so does Dockery in Lead. The “buzz” for Dern was clearly an echo chamber thing on these forums and Biel thing was clearly stan bubble hype. Dockery is the only one who can win because her program is the only one with any serious passion behind it Emmy voters saw and truly loved. Also, she has an I.O.U. for a show as Emmy-loved as Downton Abbey, don’t deny something so obvious as the enduring love for Lady Mary Crowley. Like I think I already noted, the I.O.U. thing for sure helps Dockery, but she will win without it. None of the performances have a ton of passion so the Emmy voters will do what they usually do and vote for what they know. They know and clearly like Godless more than any of the other contenders in TV Movie/Mini Lead Actress so Dockery should win in a cakewalk. Now watch me be wrong and multiple Emmy winner Edie Falco aka Carmela Soprano aka Nurse Jackie ends up winning for The Menendez Murders lol.

    Also, are you seriously pretending CC and GG matter at all with the Emmys? That’s really naive and sad, just being real here. Dockery is plenty popular because of Downton and that combined with the love for her show should net her an Emmy without any serious passionately loved competition elsewhere.

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    Hunter-ish
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    #1202586267

    The Tale flopped. Nobody saw it. People saw The Sinner, we know that even though Biel was the only nomination. The Tale was only nominated for actress and movie. It should’ve done better. That’s why I have Biel winning.

    I don’t get your point. Yes the Tale flopped but so did The Sinner. Just because we saw it coming doesn’t make it less of a flop than The Tale. And like you said, people saw it, so what’s its excuse?

    I liked The Sinner, but it is the type of trashy fun show usually ignored by the Emmys. The Tale is Emmy bate. Jessica Biel is not a huge name. I doubt voters would nominate her just from buzz. Laura Dern could have easily got in on name alone, the fact that nobody watched her show, and it got no other major nominations tell me that Dern got in on name. So I think Biel got in on more than Name, and the viewers are obviously there. Like Orphan Black, The Sinner is not a show that needs to do well all around to prevail, in my opinion.

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    Teridax
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    #1202586270

    The Tale flopped. Nobody saw it. People saw The Sinner, we know that even though Biel was the only nomination. The Tale was only nominated for actress and movie. It should’ve done better. That’s why I have Biel winning.

    I don’t get your point. Yes the Tale flopped but so did The Sinner. Just because we saw it coming doesn’t make it less of a flop than The Tale. And like you said, people saw it, so what’s its excuse?

    I liked The Sinner, but it is the type of trashy fun show usually ignored by the Emmys. The Tale is Emmy bate. Jessica Biel is not a huge name. I doubt voters would nominate her just from buzz. Laura Dern could have easily got in on name alone, the fact that nobody watched her show, and it got no other major nominations tell me that Dern got in on name. So I think Biel got in on more than Name, and the viewers are obviously there. Like Orphan Black, The Sinner is not a show that needs to do well all around to prevail, in my opinion.

    I don’t think Biel can win but I could more realistically buy her winning than Dern, hypothetically speaking, due to her not being as “A-list” a star, so there would have had to have been more genuine passion for her performance itself in order for her to be nominated. Even on Bojack Horseman Biel parodied herself for not being nearly as famous as she once was. “I’m one of the Jessicas! Un-Biel-ievable!” Come on, even with Bill Pullman’s snub, it is entirely possible that maybe the Emmys simply didn’t like his actual performance and loved Biel’s performance. Look at Rami Malek still winning for Mr. Robot in spite of Christian Slater’s snub, or last year look at Donald Glover for Atlanta winning in spite of Bryan Tyree Henry and Zazie Beetz’s snub. However, both Mr. Robot Season 1 and Atlanta Season 1 still had multiple other nominations besides those 2 leads, including Series nods. The Sinner wasn’t even able to get nominated over the Genius: Picasso season nobody watched. Biel is all alone in being the sole representation for her show this Emmy year.

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    forwardswill
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    #1202586296

    but the truth is that most critics didn’t even single her out in Godless

    Dockery aint winning but just gonna go back to this to end this myth:

    The Guardian: “Dockery is superb, wielding her gun with mighty force”

    IGN: “Dockery too shines as Alice, a sunbeaten survivalist single mother ostracized by a town that should know better.”

    Uproxx (Alan Sepinwall): “Dockery is simply outstanding (and the Downton Abbey star has the most convincing American accent among the show’s handful of English actors) as a woman not interested in talking about her life’s many tragedies, even as she carries all of them on her face”

    The Telegraph: “Dockery goes some way to exorcising Lady Mary, delivering a fine study in no-nonsense doughtiness”

    Screen Rant: “Michelle Dockery and Merritt Wever bring Godless to life”

    Roger Ebert: “Dockery, O’Connell, McNairy, Brodie-Sangster—they all give great performances”

    Digital Spy: “Michelle Dockery puts in an assured and compelling performance as a woman who, too, is no stranger to loss.”

    Vulture: “What Michelle Dockery does here is pretty high up there, too. Since Downton Abbey, the actress has seemingly made it her mission to wash all the Lady Mary Crawley right out of her hair, first on TNT’s Good Behaviorand now on Godless. Well, achievement unlocked: as Alice, her accent is devoid of any trace of British refinement and she speaks in a lower octave suggestive of weariness but also no-nonsense practicality. I’m not sure what the exact polar opposite of Lady Mary is, but Alice comes pretty damn close. The fact that Dockery can make both of them so vivid and real is a testament to her talent.”

    Paste Magazine: “Michelle Dockery, in an ass-kicking and name-taking performance”

    Boston Herald: “Dockery is turning into one of the most fascinating actresses on television. She was the heroine on “Downton Abbey,” but her acting choices often made her like a villain. (Her treatment of sister Edith was repugnant.) She easily segued to the complicated antihero of “Good Behavior,” and here she plays a two-time widow with a scorecard of reasons not to trust anyone and desperate and smart enough to know she must trust someone. She’s immensely watchable.”

    The Globe and Mail: “Dockery is a revelation, too, inhabiting the steely Alice with full-throttle force. This is an instance of an English actor embracing a classic American figure with total pleasure and great skill.”

    Den of Geek: “Wever’s Mary and Michelle Dockery’s Alice command your attention in nearly every scene”

    Uproxx: “Michelle Dockery gives the best performance of the whole damn story — her episode four flashback breakdown after Bill and his wife save Alice from her rapist captors is astonishing — and there are times when it feels like Godless is becoming as much Alice’s story as Roy’s”

    Washington Post: “Michelle Dockery is outstanding”

    FYC Gold Derby TV Awards Performer of the Year: Michelle Dockery

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    Teridax
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    #1202586304

    but the truth is that most critics didn’t even single her out in Godless

    Dockery aint winning but just gonna go back to this to end this myth:

    The Guardian: “Dockery is superb, wielding her gun with mighty force”

    IGN: “Dockery too shines as Alice, a sunbeaten survivalist single mother ostracized by a town that should know better.”

    Uproxx (Alan Sepinwall): “Dockery is simply outstanding (and the Downton Abbey star has the most convincing American accent among the show’s handful of English actors) as a woman not interested in talking about her life’s many tragedies, even as she carries all of them on her face”

    The Telegraph: “Dockery goes some way to exorcising Lady Mary, delivering a fine study in no-nonsense doughtiness”

    Screen Rant: “Michelle Dockery and Merritt Wever bring Godless to life”

    Roger Ebert: “Dockery, O’Connell, McNairy, Brodie-Sangster—they all give great performances”

    Digital Spy: “Michelle Dockery puts in an assured and compelling performance as a woman who, too, is no stranger to loss.”

    Vulture: “What Michelle Dockery does here is pretty high up there, too. Since Downton Abbey, the actress has seemingly made it her mission to wash all the Lady Mary Crawley right out of her hair, first on TNT’s Good Behaviorand now on Godless. Well, achievement unlocked: as Alice, her accent is devoid of any trace of British refinement and she speaks in a lower octave suggestive of weariness but also no-nonsense practicality. I’m not sure what the exact polar opposite of Lady Mary is, but Alice comes pretty damn close. The fact that Dockery can make both of them so vivid and real is a testament to her talent.”

    Paste Magazine: “Michelle Dockery, in an ass-kicking and name-taking performance”

    Boston Herald: “Dockery is turning into one of the most fascinating actresses on television. She was the heroine on “Downton Abbey,” but her acting choices often made her like a villain. (Her treatment of sister Edith was repugnant.) She easily segued to the complicated antihero of “Good Behavior,” and here she plays a two-time widow with a scorecard of reasons not to trust anyone and desperate and smart enough to know she must trust someone. She’s immensely watchable.”

    The Globe and Mail: “Dockery is a revelation, too, inhabiting the steely Alice with full-throttle force. This is an instance of an English actor embracing a classic American figure with total pleasure and great skill.”

    Den of Geek: “Wever’s Mary and Michelle Dockery’s Alice command your attention in nearly every scene”

    Uproxx: “Michelle Dockery gives the best performance of the whole damn story — her episode four flashback breakdown after Bill and his wife save Alice from her rapist captors is astonishing — and there are times when it feels like Godless is becoming as much Alice’s story as Roy’s”

    Washington Post: “Michelle Dockery is outstanding”

    Dockery is winning, I find it hilarious you say that right before partially hurting your own point by showing all that acclaim she received. I will finish this.

    https://www.emmys.com/awards/nominees-winners/2018/outstanding-lead-actress-in-a-miniseries-or-a-movie

    LOOK at that category and each of the nominees’ programs. King, Falco, and Biel are their shows only nominations. This isn’t a Louie Anderson and definitely nowhere near a Tatiana Maslany situation where the critics are so loudly championing their performances that they are undenible. They are out. The Tale couldn’t even get Ellen “14 seconds onscreen and an Emmy nominee” Burstyn nominated, so enough said on that one. Plus, if Dern was that loved then she would have been nominated for her arguably more hyped Twin Peaks Supporting performance too. Paulson’s win for O.J. came both as recognition of her previous great performances that the Emmys had also nominated up until that point like like when Dern won for Big Little Lies. Paulson could possibly win but she hasn’t the critical acclaim, industry buzz, or any kind of narrative that would give her any kind of edge to pull off a second win. It seems honestly delusional to say that Dockery isn’t winning when by every metric she seems to be literally the only one who can win. Is there an I.O.U for her acclaimed and multiple Emmy-nominated previous work on Downton Abbey? Yes. Is she in the most-nominated program of the nominees? Not only YES, not only is her show Godless the only one in the double-digits in Emmy nods in that category, but with the exception of Paulson and AHS: Cult, ALL the other nominees’ shows have 2 nominations in total or less, including them! I am considering switching from Jeff Daniels to Edgar Ramirez or Brandon Victor Dixon now because of how both their shows over-performed with the actors branch, but there is literally nothing that can stop Dockery from winning on her 4th nomination. The evidence that proves that is undeniable and overwhelming.

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