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Emmys 2020 Drama Nominations (Part 3)

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203625656

    Correct, nobody is ranking.  My point is that most might not be fans of Carell’s performance, but The Morning Show clearly has a base.

    Cox and Strong each getting 30% does not sound so crazy and then yes, it would be hard for anyone else to come up the middle.  But say that your arbitrary numbers are off by just a few points and they each get 25% instead.  That still sounds believable and is still a huge lead by Succession over the other nominees.  That leaves 50% for the other four nominees, but why would they split evenly?  25/10/10/5 could happen.

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    Eden
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    #1203625687

    My numbers were just an example, but my thinking is that no matter how many voters each of the six nominees receive, Cox and Strong will be at the top, and therefore, one of them will win.

    I’m not giving weight to any numbers we mentioned, just wanted to comment on your post suggesting a third option would get the same (or similar) percentage with the Succession actors. Can’t agree with this since no other nominee seems to have broader support. Carell’s show did surprisingly good with its acting nominees, but the support ends here. Not to mention that even the acting branch loved Succession more. The Morning Show’s base couldn’t even get it to a  Series nomination.

    My point was that Cox and Strong can overcome vote-splitting because of weaker support for the other four nominees.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203625693

    Carell’s show did surprisingly good with its acting nominees, but the support ends here.

    But it doesn’t need more support to win an acting award…

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    Luca
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    I will be the one who, all season long, says that Strong and Cox’s competition is being underestimated. Bateman, Carell and Porter, at the very least, are still going to have support — I would include Brown as well, but This Is Us tanked and I just can’t picture him grabbing a second statuette for this role. I have made my case for Bateman many times before — I am currently writing an article about it — Porter just won last year, returned despite his show getting dropped in series, and his storyline in “Pose” this past season is the definition of Emmy bait (and not in a bad way); and Riley made the case for Carell earlier. I don’t know why one of these actors wouldn’t have enough support to capitalize on a potential vote-split between Strong and Cox, both of whom clearly have supporters (as evidenced by last night’s discussion here). Their competitors would really have to have close to no support for them to rank first and second.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    But it doesn’t need more support to win an acting award…

    Well I don’t know. People are being cautious about Succession winning acting awards following what we saw happen with The Handmaid’s Tale in 2018 but I would also be cautious about The Morning Show. After all it doesn’t seem to have had enough acting support to get into Series.

    I will be the one who, all season long, says that Strong and Cox’s competition is being underestimated. Bateman, Carell and Porter, at the very least, are still going to have support — I would include Brown as well, but This Is Us tanked and I just can’t picture him grabbing a second statuette for this role. I have made my case for Bateman many times before — I am currently writing an article about it — Porter just won last year, returned despite his show getting dropped in series, and his storyline in “Pose” this past season is the definition of Emmy bait (and not in a bad way); and Riley made the case for Carell earlier. I don’t know why one of these actors wouldn’t have enough support to capitalize on a potential vote-split between Strong and Cox, both of whom clearly have supporters (as evidenced by last night’s discussion here). Their competitors would really have to have close to no support for them to rank first and second.

    Someone should do a Cox-Strong poll.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Luca
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    #1203625713

    Well I don’t know. People are being cautious about Succession winning acting awards following what we saw happen with The Handmaid’s Tale in 2018 but I would also be cautious about The Morning Show. After all it doesn’t seem to have had enough acting support to get into Series.

    You can’t into series with support from merely actors. That’s what I kept saying all season long and why I also doubted TMS as a series nominee (I am mad that I caved last minute). That said, I also think voters are very capable of distinguishing between the quality of acting and the quality of a show overall. They might have been in awe of the individual actors and their performances but not the series as a whole (just a guess). The same applies to the directors, who might have checked off Mimi Leder but not the series.

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    wolfali
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    #1203625724

    We talk about how Emmy voters may not vote for Cate Blanchett because of how bad it would look if a white woman playing an Evangelical right wing Republican won over three black women but I’m really being cautious about Schitt’s, Succession, The Crown and to an extent Maisel winning acting awards because of how it would look considering the characters the actors play. With Schitt’s, The Crown and Succession if the actors win over people like Billy Porter, Giancarlo Esposito and Issa Rae it looks like the Emmys are awarding white people for playing entitled characters over socially relevant (and in some cases overdue awards wise) performances. Then with Maisel the problem that arises with it isn’t what affects The Crown, Schitt’s Creek and Succession (after all in terms of narrative awarding Borstein for playing a working class woman who accidentally gambles a bit too much and works hard to get her client some slots doesn’t seem troubling first) but it just looks bad if Maisel wins it’s gazilionth acting award for Brosnahan, Borstein, Shalhoub or Kirby over people like Issa Rae, Yvonne Orji, Mahershala Ali or Eddie Murphy.

    Then I find myself in an ultimatum. I start to think with something like Lead Actor if I’m overthinking it as whilst Billy Porter delivers a very relevant and breathtaking performance Emmy voters may feel they might not need to reward him as it’s not an overdue or unrewarded performance. Argh!

    You can’t into series with support from merely actors. That’s what I kept saying all season long and why I also doubted TMS as a series nominee (I am mad that I caved last minute). That said, I also think voters are very capable of distinguishing between the quality of acting and the quality of a show overall. They might have been in awe of the individual actors and their performances but not the series as a whole (just a guess). The same applies to the directors, who might have checked off Mimi Leder but not the series.

    Yes but This is Us managed to get into Series mainly with the support of actors in 2017 and won only one acting Emmy that year. It only had two nominations below the line (which is the same number The Morning Show has this year) and didn’t even get a directing nomination (which The Morning Show did) did so clearly a show can get into Series merely with the support of actors. The fact that The Morning Show couldn’t get into Series isn’t inspiring when it comes to thinking about Carell’s chances. I mean Aniston and Crudup’s chances aren’t really affected that much by the snub of The Morning Show in Series because as we could tell from the guilds and critics awards those performances have passion.

    I guess people are that bored. It’s either Cox or Strong who wins. Has the Comer/Oh situation taught you nothing? And even there there were multiple solid alternatives, unlike here, and Comer still won. Cox and Strong are going to lead the votes. Nobody of the rest 4 stands a chance. There is not a single person that watches TMS and Carell in it and says give that man an Emmy. He’s not remotely win worthy. The nomination is the prize and Emmys don’t care about overdue anymore unless you have undeniable performance. Bateman is too subtle. Brown is done, that SAG nomination is the only reason why he got in over Odenkirk. Porter is in due to political climate and winner afterglow. He’s actually the best among these 4 but I doubt he’ll be able to pull off a consecutive win when his show is simply done at the Emmys and didn’t manage to overcome FX bias at SAG.

    If his show was done at the Emmys then why did it still get 5 Emmy nominations and pretty much only lost a Series and Casting nomination.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Luca
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    #1203625726

    The This Is Us comparison never registered with me because that show just had broad appeal. Just because the writers and directors didn’t consider its efforts some of the year’s six best, doesn’t mean they didn’t like the show as a whole. It’s a show that is extremely family-friendly and one that was just a joy for people to watch. The Morning Show is not that. The actors clearly loved the show enough to get five of its actors nominated; its absence in series does not change that.

    Bateman is too subtle.

    I am assuming you are going with Cox over Strong then, right?

    Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!

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    mafro987
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    #1203625732

    Someone should do a Cox-Strong poll.

    It won’t be indicative of anything. Cox winning the poll (as the majority of people here will probably vote on performance) won’t take away from the fact that Jeremy is buzzier and has the ‘antihero’ character that plays well.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    wolfali
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    I mean main categories, duh. He’s the sole major nomination for his show. 

    But apart from a Series nomination he was literally the only above the line nominee they got last year as well…

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Emmyfan
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    I have Steve Carell, partly to keep things interesting until the Creative Arts. Say that Succession splits. I do not want to predict Billy Porter because Pose fell out of series. My plan was to predict Jason Bateman, but I anticipated that Ozark would do better in acting nominations and I did not anticipate Porter being nominated again. It is hard to justify him leapfrogging.

    There are a couple of things that I like about Steve Carell as a contender. One is just that he is truly respected at this point. There is consensus that Bateman and Carell are overshadowed by Laura Linney and Jennifer Aniston, but Carell compensates with esteem. Nobody is looking down on him the way that Aniston is known for romantic comedies and tabloid appearances. Carell is an Oscar nominee who can bravely play against type in The Morning Show, while leading a blockbuster farce the same season. But all of this is just context to justify him having potential to be in that upset position instead of just being someone who can be written off easily.

    What actually puts him in the upset position for me is that nobody is choosing between The Morning Show and Succession. Nobody is going to have a tough time choosing between Carell and Strong. People voting Strong would probably rank Carell last and people who are enamoured with The Morning Show are probably the least likely to be fans of Succession. That is the pitfall of the plurality vote. Vote-splits cater to a minority.

    When people were talking about what a vote-split between Lena Headey and Maisie Williams would mean, the beneficiaries being floated were Fiona Shaw and Julia Garner, not Gwendoline Christie. When Game of Thrones split in directing the year before, it did not just go to a different genre hit in Stranger Things; the winner was The Crown, which had totally different sensibilities. When Veep kept splitting in writing, directing and editing, it did not just go to the other HBO satire Silicon Valley that the Veep voters were presumably always bringing along for the ride as their second choice during nominating. The winners were instead Atlanta, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Master of None and Transparent.

    Most relevantly, when a melodramatic network hit (This is Us) was splitting in this category two years ago, the beneficiary was at the other end of the spectrum (The Americans). The win did not split the difference and go to Ozark and Westworld, which had more prestige than This is Us, but less critical acclaim than The Americans. My theory this year is that it has flipped. The double nominee that would win on a preferential ballot is the critical darling; the beneficiary will be the melodrama.

    The above is based more on the tones of the shows; if you want to go by subject matter, then The Morning Show and Succession are very much on the same territory and Pose is not.

    I think that the passion for Gwendoline Christie grew during the voting period, but not enough for her to win. I can’t stop thinking of the huge reaction that she received when the cast was on stage at the Emmys combined with the reactions that she got when she said that HBO did not submit her and she submitted herself. Julia Garner rightfully won, but I think that Gwondoline might have been closer than we think.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqpKrlEN4OY

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    TV_Sideliner
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    #1203626076

    The more I think about Aniston, Carell and/or Crudup winning for their hammy, overwrought, melodramatic performances, the more I want to dip my head in a bucket of wet cement.

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