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Emmys 2020 Nominations: Movie/Limited Reactions

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203624799

    The last three winners have been breakthroughs leading their shows, but the two before were borderline-supporting performances by veterans who were not the most praised performances of their shows, but were caught up in sweeps.  (The tape system was before that.)  When They See UsThe Assassination of Gianni Versace and The Night Of did not sweep.  The People v. O.J. Simpson and Olive Kitteridge swept.  Watchmen is going to sweep.  Jeremy Irons can very much get caught up in that.  (Jeremy Pope has less passion than Paul Mescal and cannot get caught in a sweep because Hollywood is not even nominated in series.)

    On the actress side, the last two winners were passion picks that benefited from the Outstanding Limited Series winner not having a lead actress.  The three before that were actresses who led their sweeps.  Big Little Lies had no lead actor, but its most prominent actor Alexander Skarsgård swept, even defeating lead performances at SAG.  I have Irons third now.

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    boss
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    #1203624811

    But Pope is in a poorly received series where he himself has mixed reviews. The only Hollywood Actor who has a chance is probably Parsons, cause he has such a showy role, but the problematic nature of the role holds him back.

    Hollywood has 12 nominations including 4 in acting. Voters have clearly moved on from its poor reviews. Most importantly, there is a surge in BIPOC nominees and I expect it to reflect to winners.

    The last three winners have been breakthroughs leading their shows, but the two before were borderline-supporting performances by veterans who were not the most praised performances of their shows, but were caught up in sweeps.

    Courtney B. Vance’s performance was highly heralded and respected. Richard Jenkins is indeed similar to Irons this year, but the television landscape has changed immensely since then.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203624838

    But Pope is in a poorly received series where he himself has mixed reviews. The only Hollywood Actor who has a chance is probably Parsons, cause he has such a showy role, but the problematic nature of the role holds him back.

    The industry, at least actors did not care about those reviews.

    On that note I would like to say Holland Taylor is top 3.

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    wolfali
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    #1203624857

    At the moment I have Supporting Actress ranked like this :

    1. Uzo Aduba
    2. Jean Smart
    3. Tracey Ullman
    4. Holland Taylor
    5. Toni Colette
    6. Margo Martindale

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    methaddiction
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    #1203624876

    With Ruffalo what confuses me is the fact that he got an individual TCA nod but the show didn’t. I mean he’s only the third Limited/Movie Male Actor to get an individual TCA nod since 2004 (the others being Al Pacino and Darren Criss) and that usually indicates who the frontrunner is. However the year both Pacino and Criss won the Emmy and got nominated at TCA not only did their shows get nominated at TCA but they WON at TCA.

    Paul Giamatti, Courtney B. Vance and Matthew McConaughey?

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    wolfali
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    #1203624882

    Oops forgot about them. Still the same principal applies. Both were nominated at TCA (Giamatti won) and both’s shows won at TCA.

    Although technically I’m not counting McConaughey as his programme was in Drama at the Emmys.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203624973

    Not a perfect comparison but Mescal could win similarly to Whishaw.

    Both BBC British/Irish shows made in co-production with a US streaming service; nominated in writing/directing (from a known UK writer & Oscar-nominated director) and likely sixth in series (DEJ probably would be 6th if rules weren’t changed).

    Normal People does seem to be in a better position given this is the first time any awards body period can reward it & getting a casting nomination.

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    CateNicole
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    #1203625504

    I don’t think Steinem’s response is damning by any means… At this point in the US, the ERA victory is more of a symbolic one, contrary to what she suggests. Anyone who makes you think we’re in peril without it is deluding you… her point about the insurance industry being predominantly responsible certainly stands; the show omits that from the narrative. But the focus of this story is on Schlafly and she definitely had some impact, helping Reagan establish a “family values” platform to run on and giving him her mailing list. I see Steinem is still simping for the Affordable Care Act, and has yet to support Medicare For All. I frankly can’t take this letter seriously because while Steinem certainly made great strides for justice in the 70s, this is the same woman who said in 2016 that young women only support Bernie Sanders because they see that boys like him. And YES to the user who said, a few pages back, that it’s ridiculous how she’s tearing down these actresses, which proves her to be petty. Did anyone feel like this show was a catfight? She went on and on about this show being a catfight but it was just extremely intelligent women debating and lobbying for power. I don’t think know that she even watched it.

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    Potatohead
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    #1203625515

    Predictions:

    Lead Actor: Mark Ruffalo, he has the name and the performance. Also, the competition is pretty light.

    Lead Actress: Regina King, she’s an awards darling who led Watchmen, which got 26 nominations and is poised as the far and away frontrunner. Blanchett is good, but her character is so unlikeable–at one point, Phyllis looks the other way to let the Klan join her cause. She’s not happening.

    Supporting Actor: idk uhh I guess they’ll just name check Parsons? Tim Blake Nelson was the only Watchmen actor who I’d believe could overcome a vote split, but he’s not in the race and there’s three contenders from the show. McDermott won’t threaten Parsons, and Burgess has never won for his role and probably never will.

    Supporting Actress: Uzo Aduba. Jean Smart was great, but “Shirley” was a phenomenal showcase for an Emmy darling whose standout episode could not be any more timely. She has the performance, the name, and the narrative to win.

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    DvirBA
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    #1203625563

    Why wouldn’t the 3 Watchmen episode split the votes in Directing?

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203625581

    The combination of Black Lives Matter and the campaign focus on “This Extraordinary Being” has the potential just to make Stephen Williams the clear choice.

    As for the competition, the directors were not fans enough of Little Fires Everywhere to nominate it for casting and the academy overall snubbed Normal People in series, so Lenny Abrahamson would be the first to win the category without a corresponding program nomination since 1994. Unorthodox has a solid case on paper to be in the upset position.

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    Couverture
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    #1203625593

    but El Camino missing stuff like editing

    It was nominated for editing.

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    DvirBA
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    #1203625612

    I think Riley convinced me to change my prediction to El Camino in TV movie.

    It’s freaking Breaking Bad. When it wins we’ll all go “it was obvious, how couldn’t I see this before?”

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    boss
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    #1203625627

    Well, Fred Toye’s work on the finale is not splitting any votes. He has no narrative, directors already proved at DGA that they prefer the other two, his name recognition was only enough to carry him to a nomination instead of a win and he has the least acclaimed episode, which is neither the pilot nor the main Emmy push.

    It’s Steph Green who is nominated as the third Watchmen director.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203625635

    Well, good god.  Good for her.  I am losing my marbles. Probably best not to take me at my word until this inadvertent fake news spree that I have been on ends. Anyway, she poses no threat to the frontrunner or the DGA-winning pilot.

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