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August 5, 2020 at 3:23 am #1203627435
I do not know who in their right mind would vote for Aunjanue Ellis in lead and Marsha Stephanie Blake for acting awards. And those voters are still around and obviously prone to abuse their ballots again, unlike the more sensible fans of other shows, who have no problem passing over a Jessie Buckley or a Joshua Jackson.
Riley’s this post from that thread seems to explain Samira Wiley’s nomination this year.August 5, 2020 at 5:43 am #1203627511
Oh, I think that the snubs for Mrs. America were very telling. The actors not getting to IMDb-consensus-standout “Houston” is one thing, but the writers’ branch is normally discerning and even they snubbed it. The directors snubbed the big names on the finale. The editors only nominated the pilot. They did not finish the show and I do not think that they have any intention. The Emmys have been moving away from more traditionally prestigious fare toward water-cooler shows. Forgetting the competition, I just do not see Cate Blanchett having passion, not to mention the issue of various optics, none of which benefit her. Kerry Washington on the other hand is someone for whom the academy has demonstrated a previous irrational love and not only is this her best performance, but it also came in a banner year for her, so I can see a path for her. I question how much the one for Blanchett is really there. I feel like her only card is the movie-star-coming-to-television one, which we know is not really a thing anymore.
Blanchett will do more TV but she’s privileged enough to be so in demand on the film side this might be their sole opportunity for the time being to acknowledge her. I know that there isn’t a limit to how often you award a single performer for the Emmy but the Regina King love fest makes zero sense after she’s likable and a veteran of TV who made efforts to have a sustainable film career.August 5, 2020 at 9:55 am #1203627863
Blanchett will do more TV but she’s privileged enough to be so in demand on the film side this might be their sole opportunity for the time being to acknowledge her. I know that there isn’t a limit to how often you award a single performer for the Emmy but the Regina King love fest makes zero sense after she’s likable and a veteran of TV who made efforts to have a sustainable film career.
This doesn’t make much sense considering Blanchett can snag a guest star or Narrator one so easily later on in her career and she’s already one of the most awarded actors alive so I don’t know how they would see it as her last chance? She’s a titan, she will get more chances if she loses.August 5, 2020 at 11:53 am #1203628080
Riley’s this post from that thread seems to explain Samira Wiley’s nomination this year.
Much as I would like to take the credit here, Samira Wiley seems to be a different phenomenon, as the cases that I was talking about were shows where everyone got nominated or shows where only the core got nominated; neither applies to The Handmaid’s Tale.August 5, 2020 at 2:52 pm #1203628647
I’ve just seen episode 2 of Little Fires Everywhere and have just moved Kerry Washington ahead of Cate Blanchett (I have Washington 2nd and Blanchett 3rd) as of writing. I think I agree with Riley that we’re underestimating her. She has been doing a tonne of campaigning (probably on the same level if not more than Blanchett, Haas and King), could benefit from the current socio-political situation, does not face vote splitting with Witherspoon, has a performance and unlike Regina King and Cate Blanchett she has a narrative of being unrewarded (I mean if she doesn’t win a single Emmy this year this woman will be overdue after four acting Emmy nominations and 8 Emmy nominations). Plus she could very well benefit from appearing in American Son this year (I mean it must mean something that she managed to overcome cancelling herself out this year and I think the fact she got in despite Reese getting snubbed hints more that there is a lot of passion for her performance rather than that there is weakness).
It’s so hard to predict Lead Actor and Lead Actress in a Limited Series/Movie as really four out of five of the nominees in each category have the potential to win.
FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).August 5, 2020 at 5:47 pm #1203629223This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.August 5, 2020 at 7:20 pm #1203629355
Considering I’ve changed my predictions so much already I thought it was worth just redoing the explanation of my rankings :
1. Watchmen – Locked
2. Unorthodox – Probably second in nominations but imo it’s a toss up for second place between this and Mrs. America. But anyway it doesn’t matter because Watchmen is winning.
3. Mrs. America – Under-performed a bit but still could be a distant second to Watchmen.
4. Little Fires Everywhere – Missed writing and casting. Has a narrative playing in its favour and is probably top 3 in visibility. Could be anywhere between 2 and 4.
5. Unbelievable – Probably almost missed a Series nomination lol.
1. Regina King – It’s Regina King in the Series winner.
2. Kerry Washington – Is helped by the fact there seems to be passion for her performance and that her co-star got snubbed so she doesn’t have to split hairs. She also has a narrative that voters may want to award to show they support Black Lives Matter and are not racist plus unlike Cate Blanchett and Regina King she is riding an overdue narrative.
3. Cate Blanchett – If we look at the past 5 years 3/5 of the winners in this category have been A-listers (Frances McDormand, Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams). This works in her favour however depending on how you view it you could say her show under-performed in acting and that the fact multi Emmy nominee John Slattery missed in an open category hurts her chances. There is also the visuals of the TV Academy awarding someone for playing a right win Reaganite over an African American superhero, an African American mother tackling racial abuse and microagressions in the 90s whilst trying to raise and do everything that’s best for her daughters future, a woman fleeing an arranged marriage and an African American entrepreneur that won’t work in her favour. Then again she has a transformational performance which the TV Academy tends to go for and Blanchett is beloved in the industry.
4. Shira Haas – Breakout star in a show with high visibility. Passion pick. The only thing that may hurt her is that she’s in a category that tends to go for acting veterans as the winner than newcomers.
5. Octavia Spencer – It would be the biggest joke if she won.
1. Jeremy Irons – Watchmen sweep!
2. Paul Mescal – Fits the trend this category tends to go for recently, passion pick in a widely seen show. What hurts him is his show’s lack of a series nomination.
3. Jeremy Pope – If we see a sweep of poc winning expect Pope to be one of those to win. His show did receive mixed reviews and missed in Series but it still over-performed and he has a narrative here (plus his performance was actually one of the only acclaimed parts of hollywood). I feel like (and this is why I am predicting a poc sweep on the Comedy side) we sometimes underestimate the impact of political events on the Emmy winners. After all we saw in 2017 how post the election of Trump, The Handmaid’s Tale and Big Little Lies both swept.
4. Mark Ruffalo – He is beloved and has a baity performance but what hurts him is that not many people seemed to watch his show and that despite him getting that bellwether TCA individual nom his show missed at TCA (which TCA individual male nominees from a Limited Series who have gone on to win the Emmy’s shows have gotten).
5. Hugh Jackman – When was the last time an actor won for being in a TV Movie in this category? Then again he’s Hugh Jackman lol. His chances are hurt by Emmy darling Alison Janney missing for what’s been said to be better than her Oscar winning performance.
1. Uzo Aduba – She’s playing Shirley Chisholm who many feel is unrecognised in American history so there is definitely narrative here. She is the only poc in her category and she’s Emmy darling Uzo Aduba who managed to repeat for a performance on both the Comedy and Drama side. What might hurt her is a possible vote split (at least with Ullman if not Martindale) and the perceived under-performance of Mrs. America. Then again the fact she got nominated and her episode got nominated by the writers makes me think voters have seen her episode and there is passion for her and her performance.
2. Jean Smart – She has a tour de force of a performance and could get swept up in a Watchmen sweep.
3. Tracey Ullman – She is playing an iconic figure and I think voters respect Tracey Ullman and may respect her performance. After all it may seem quite surprising to them that she managed to perfectly execute a dramatic performance.
4. Holland Taylor – She is beloved and the fact she managed to get in gives me a feeling there is support and respect for her and her performance (especially considering she got in over Patti LuPone). Then again she could be a name check but it’s probably worth knowing she hasn’t won an Emmy in 21 years.
5. Toni Colette – The fact both Wever and Dever got snubbed doesn’t help her although I can see her pulling through if the SAG nom for her was indicative of voter passion for her performance. Then again she could have been on the brink of missing this year.
6. Margo Martindale – I think she is a non factor due to the fact her performance is more mixed in acclaim than Ullman and Aduba’s.
1. Louis Gossett Jr. – He’s 84 and is in the Series winner. Plus he’s quite overdue. Could be hurt by a potential three way Watchmen vote split.
2. Tituss Burgess – He’s quite overdue and could benefit from a Watchmen split. Then again he missed last year and TV movie performances don’t tend to do well here.
3. Yayha Abdul-Mateen II – I kind of see him as the Ullman here. He could take votes away from his co-star and could win but it’s so 50/50 and he could indeed cause a vote-split.
4. Jim Parsons – I don’t see him happening but I have to prepare for the worse. His performance was acclaimed but his character (and particularly his character development) was polarising. Plus the optics of a 4 time Emmy winning white man winning over 4 black people for a performance as a predator seems wrong. I actually wonder if Dylan McDermott might be ahead of him (after all this is his first Emmy nomination in 21 years I think). The lack of a Hollywood casting and series nomination hurts Parsons.
5. Jovan Adepo – I feel like he’ll get less votes than Mateen and Gossett but who knows?
6. Dylan McDermott – Could be non factor but read above!
My writing and directing thoughts are more or less in line with last time.
FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).August 6, 2020 at 3:22 am #1203629655
This Extraordinary Being is the single most creative, most brilliant, most genius episode of TV of this past Emmy season. I will be damned if it loses directing.
Ugh YES. That episode is probably the best I have seen in the last decade. However the director’s branch seem to love episodes like this that are seen as standout, groundbreaking etc, but never seem to reward them? I mean, I kinda see This Extraordinary Being as a Teddy Perkins and ronny/lily situation where the most buzzed about episode got the Directing nod, but not the win, in favour of a more populist choice/most directed episode. Kassell is helped by the fact that she competed at DGA against- and won over Stephen Williams…and Kassell’s episode is the very first of the season. Would love for Williams to win, but man Kassell was the behind-the-scenes MVP. (And if Kassell wins, I’ll just pretend it is for A God Walks Into Abar)August 6, 2020 at 3:30 am #1203629659
I mean, I kinda see This Extraordinary Being as a Teddy Perkins and ronny/lily situation where the most buzzed about episode got the Directing nod, but not the win, in favour of a more populist choice/most directed episode.
You know what though? Both Maisel and Fleabag won the series categories those two years (and practically swept), which would help Watchmen since it’s undoubtedly winning limited series and is probably going to sweep as well!
Oscar FYC -- Give Viola Davis her second Oscar!August 6, 2020 at 4:15 am #1203629671
This didn’t stop Patricia Arquette and Ben Whishaw last year.
Those wins were in Supporting. Lead wins tend to go to actors who had their show nominated.
Which is why I believe the race is between Irons and Mescal. Hoping for Mescal (and he fits the mold of winners we had in the last 3 years), however, that Normal People couldn’t get into Series gives me doubts…which is why I am predicting Irons in a Watchmen sweep (he honestly wouldn’t be such a bad winner as many may think). His show is the frontrunner and the only Series nominated among the nominees (disregarding Hugh Jackman, because we haven’t had an actor win for a TV Movie since like 2013?).
I guess Pope could win, because his show got 4 acting nods which could indicate support from the acting branch and he is a beloved Broadway actor (ala Billy Porter) making a switch to TV, and he has baity material. But his show didn’t get nominated.
Ruffalo I have in 5th. He would be the first nominee to win Lead Actor without a Series/Movie nom since Andre Braugher in 2006…and the first winner who is a SOLE nominee (no below or above the line noms) for their Series/Movie since John Gielgud for Summer’s Lease in 1991 … I doubt Ruffalo has that much passion.August 6, 2020 at 6:09 am #1203629779
This didn’t stop Patricia Arquette and Ben Whishaw last year.
They were in Supporting Actress and Actor not Lead Actor.
FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).August 6, 2020 at 7:08 am #1203629806
So, for those who may understand the difference in voting patterns between the Motion Picture and Television Academies, would the fact that Ruffalo’s nomination is the only nomination for his project really be such an obstacle to his winning an Emmy when so many lead performances have won Oscars as their project’s only nomination, largely due to strong goodwill for both the performer and the performance? Like with many of those Oscar races, the leading actor category really doesn’t have any strong front-runner or narrative as far as I can tell, so why not reward Ruffalo for a job largely regarding as well done just because the project wasn’t well-received anywhere else?
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