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Emmys 2021 Comedy Predictions (Part 4)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1204182714

    Keep discussing in Part 4.

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    #1204182720

    I didn’t realize that we have already passed 500 posts, so I will repeat my question from the other thread:

    Do you think there is a chance that Lead Actress in Comedy will only have five nominees this year?

    Today, as a hobby, I started to compile how many eligible candidates we have in each category. I started with Lead Actress in Comedy, and I checked candidates at the predictions center, on the Netflix FYC website, and at last year’s Ballots. So far, I have only found 33 eligible candidates. And for 6 nominees, more than 80 candidates are required.

    Of course, I must be forgetting several new comedies from the cable and broadcast TV channels.

    1. Candace Cameron Bure (Fuller House)
    2. Kayla Cromer (Everything’s Gonna Be Okay)
    3. Aidy Bryant (Shrill)
    4. Lily Collins (Emily in Paris)
    5. Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
    6. Emma D’Arcy (Truth Seekers)
    7. Maya Erskine (Pen15)
    8. Sutton Foster (Younger)
    9. Sara Gilbert (The Conners)
    10. Daisy Haggard (Breeders)
    11. Hassie Harrison (Tacoma FD)
    12. Courtney Henggeler (Cobra Kai)
    13. Allison Janney (Mom)
    14. Anna Konkle (Pen15)
    15. Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist)
    16. Wendy McLendon-Covey (The Goldbergs)
    17. Cristin Milioti (Made for Love)
    18. Mary Mouser (Cobra Kai)
    19. Charlotte Nicdao (Mythic Quest)
    20. Folake Olowofoyeku (Bob Hearts Abishola)
    21. Gwyneth Paltrow (The Politician)
    22. Nasim Pedrad (Chad)
    23. Maeve Press (Everything’s Gonna Be Okay)
    24. Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    25. Yara Shahidi (Grown-ish)
    26. Alia Shawkat (Search Party)
    27. Sherri Shepherd (Mr. Iglesias)
    28. Esther Smith (Trying)
    29. Jean Smart (Hacks)
    30. Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson)
    31. Tika Sumpter (Mixed-ish)
    32. Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show)
    33. Maisie Williams (Two Weeks to Live)
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    wolfali
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    #1204182820

    Will Hacks even premiere this season? Considering HBO Max’s weekly format for The Flight Attendant and Made for Love it would have to premiere very soon to make eligibility.

    I guess it premieres the first week of May?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204182822

    I didn’t realize that we have already passed 500 posts, so I will repeat my question from the other thread:

    Do you think there is a chance that Lead Actress in Comedy will only have five nominees this year?

    Today, as a hobby, I started to compile how many eligible candidates we have in each category. I started with Lead Actress in Comedy, and I checked candidates at the predictions center, on the Netflix FYC website, and at last year’s Ballots. So far, I have only found 33 eligible candidates. And for 6 nominees, more than 80 candidates are required.

    Of course, I must be forgetting several new comedies from the cable and broadcast TV channels.

    1. Candace Cameron Bure (Fuller House)
    2. Kayla Cromer (Everything’s Gonna Be Okay)
    3. Aidy Bryant (Shrill)
    4. Lily Collins (Emily in Paris)
    5. Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
    6. Emma D’Arcy (Truth Seekers)
    7. Maya Erskine (Pen15)
    8. Sutton Foster (Younger)
    9. Sara Gilbert (The Conners)
    10. Daisy Haggard (Breeders)
    11. Hassie Harrison (Tacoma FD)
    12. Courtney Henggeler (Cobra Kai)
    13. Allison Janney (Mom)
    14. Anna Konkle (Pen15)
    15. Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist)
    16. Wendy McLendon-Covey (The Goldbergs)
    17. Cristin Milioti (Made for Love)
    18. Mary Mouser (Cobra Kai)
    19. Charlotte Nicdao (Mythic Quest)
    20. Folake Olowofoyeku (Bob Hearts Abishola)
    21. Gwyneth Paltrow (The Politician)
    22. Nasim Pedrad (Chad)
    23. Maeve Press (Everything’s Gonna Be Okay)
    24. Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish)
    25. Yara Shahidi (Grown-ish)
    26. Alia Shawkat (Search Party)
    27. Sherri Shepherd (Mr. Iglesias)
    28. Esther Smith (Trying)
    29. Jean Smart (Hacks)
    30. Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson)
    31. Tika Sumpter (Mixed-ish)
    32. Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show)
    33. Maisie Williams (Two Weeks to Live)

    I counted 30 more (for a 63 total), I’m sure there’s more im missing (FWIW, HBO Max also has a bunch of British shows they could submit)

    1. Annaleigh Ashford – B Positive
    2. Anjelica Bette Fellini – Teenage Bounty Hunters
    3. Cassi Davis – House of Payne
    4. Cherie Johnson – Punky Brewster
    5. Caitlin McGee – Home Economics
    6. Christina Vidal Mitchell – United We Stand
    7. Courtney Nichole – Assisted Living
    8. Haskiri Velazquez – Saved by the Bell
    9. Josie Totah – Saved by the Bell
    10. Katherine McPhee – Country Comfort
    11. Katy Mixon – American Housewife
    12. Kim Coles – In the Cut
    13. Kyra Sedgewick – Call Your Mother
    14. Maddie Phillips – Teenage Bounty Hunters
    15. Madison Reyes – Julie & the Phantoms
    16. Malia Baker – The Baby-Sitters Club
    17. Mayim Bialik – Call Me Kat
    18. Mel Giedroyc – Hitmen
    19. Midori Francis – Dash & Lily
    20. Monoma Tamada – The Baby-Sitters Club
    21. Nancy Travis – Last Man Standing
    22. Olivia Rodrigo – High School Musical The Musical The Series
    23. Paris Berelc – Alexa & Katie
    24. Isabel May – Alexa & Katie
    25. Shay Rudolph – The Baby-Sitters Club
    26. Soleli Moon Frye – Punky Brewster
    27. Sophie Grace – The Baby-Sitters Club
    28. Sue Perkins – Hitmen
    29. Tamela Mann – Assisted Living
    30. Wanda Sykes – The Upshaws
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    wolfali
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    #1204182846

    Just swap the number of comedy slots with the limited series ones please.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204182862

    The way SNL could probably get lead nominations this year if they tried.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204182888

    Comedy lead submissions need to fall only nine percent not to trigger the sixth slot. Think about all of the comedies that we are missing this year and it hard to imagine submissions not being down at least nine percent.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204182897

    New thread thoughts on the lead categories.

    1. Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) – Series frontrunner. Lowkey transformational performance. Actively funny performance. Swept winter awards. 1388 people having him winning in the prediction, 10 have the 2nd place finisher winning. Enough said.

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    2. Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) – acting icon, never missed, actors love his show and it’s the final season. He’s in.

    3. Anthony Anderson (Blackish) – he’s never missed. He was the first thing nominated from his show even before it become an Emmy hit, he survived when it lost series & Ellis-Ross. He’s going to be nominated until he doesn’t (the Modern Family of actors).

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    4. Dave Burd (Dave) – big Ramy energy. Acclaimed titular role in a spring auteur show from a comedian, misses for 1st season but gradually discovered throughout the year and developed a strong base.

    5. Ralph Macchio (Cobra Kai) – the most iconic part of his show. Could be assumed to be the titular role by causal observers and is in a likely series. Don’t have it on the top off my head but does anyone know the last a Comedy Series nominee had both of it’s lead miss?

    6. William Zabka (Cobra Kai) – top of ballot for half the voters and had the best overall material of the season from the

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    7. & 8. Ted Danson (Mr. Mayor) & Kenan Thompson (Kenan) – both of these are absolute no1curr shows. but Mayor has at least got a confirmed second season. That may be enough for Danson to coattail to a nom. Vis-à-vis Thompson, I have him winning supporting right now and so keeping him in for now as that might be enough to coattail. But if the show does get cancelled then everyone who still has him in afterwards is a fool. The Emmys didn’t even go for eternal favourite Michael J. Fox’s one season cancelled network show in 2014 or Robin Williams’ one season cancelled network show (and he died in the middle of voting).

    ———————————————————————————————

    9. Jamie Foxx (Dad Stop Embarrassing Me!) – even in bad things Foxx is still excellent in them. He’s returning to his comedic tv roots for first time since the 1990s and seems like it could a quasi-hit for Netflix.

    10. Asa Butterfield (Sex Education) – the face of his show, has been working the years (how many people have been the led/titular role of Scorsese best picture nominee?), is a child star who “survived” and would be one of easiest to recognise the show since this is the emptiest Primetime category it’s competing in. (if it’s actually out in time)

    11. Alan Tudyk (Resident Alien) – after recently binging his show, I don’t have anything else to say other than his performance was phenomenal, no wonder audiences have taken to it so much. All of the best parts of Hanks in “Big” and Lithgow in “3rd Rock”. The buzz this had been oddly good considering it’s a SyFy original and that’s ultimately why I can’t place any higher (at least until NBCU/Comcast make him a priority). The closet comparison I can recall is Zimmer in UnReal (standout performance in an audience hit on a traditionally trashy associated cable network).

    12. Michael Cimino (Love Victor) – don’t think he’ll happen but the show is airing it’s second season right in the prime of voting and it would be real easy for Hulu for start campaigning especially considering they don’t have any other real contenders in this category without Hoult and the Only Murderers duo in contention (sorry Morris).

    ———————————————————————————————

    13. Ian Armitage (Young Sheldon) – I don’t he’ll happen at all but can’t shake this niggling feeling that Parsons was actually in the 7-10 vote total range after he was dropped and can’t see why some of that couldn’t have transfer over to Armitage.

    14. Ben Feldman (Superstore) – even as a Superstore stan, I only have him listed because of potential final season goodwill crossing over to him. Not confident at all, despite him being a previous nominee.

    ———————————————————————————————

    15. William H. Macy (Shameless) – he got dropped by Emmys and SAG even prior to Felony Huffman, it’s still a showtime show, in it’s final season and this field is weak as hell so why not list him.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204182914

    1. Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant) – a weakened frontrunner after the winter awards performance? Yes. But only from 90% chance to 80%. Sure, Cuoco herself hasn’t won yet but she’s never actually lost to a fellow Emmy competitor and the show itself has been embraced (nomination wise) by everywhere it needed to. Still the frontrunner until otherwise (and like Anderson in Drama, who is there to stop her?)

    ————————————————————————————

    2. Tracee Ellis Ross (black•ish) – we’ve seen time and time again how people regularly get the same amount of votes when their dropped off and pop back in when the competition is weaker. That happened last year with Ross and with even weaker competition she and Cuoco are the only contenders I feel confident calling “locks”. (It also helps that she’s one of the two previous eligible nominees from the past five years and the only one from a past Series nominee). This year she won’t just another “name-check in a weak field” as the season covid premiere was thee most buzz the show has gotten in YEARS, with her excellent performance at the centre of it.

    3. Maya Eskrine (Pen15) – surprised us all last time with a writing nom, will be Hulu’s main priority this time around with a potential for a WWDITS type writers boast to main series player. Was initially hesitate to predict both her and Kronkle for acting nominations after the CC shut out (where if any awards body was gonna nominated them for its two leads, it was critics who adored the show) but the great buzz steadily building over the past few months (see Helen Mirren at SAG) along with her oddly being recognised as the face of the show to many people (I only have her above Kronkle because she’s more win competitive IMO). And as morbid the this sounds, the recent spotlighting of violence against Asian Americans in arguably the first year in nearly a decade when voters just can’t default to a Sandra Oh or Mindy Kaling namecheck, she’s the most high profile AAPI performer that they can recognise in nearly any category (although that says more about the industry itself and what they kinds of roles it offers to Asian thespians and the even fewer that are considered “prestige” enough for awards).

    4. Anna Kronkle (Pen15) – same reasoning for Eskrine applies to her.

    5. Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist) – this is a peculiar one. NBC pushed her and the show hard last year over the final season of The Good Place (which resulted in a TCA ‘New Program’ nod and a juried Emmy win). Then at Globes, only she herself got in (without the show), which could signal either NBC just ran a good HFPA campaign for her (they did but they also did for the show as a whole) or Levy herself is the sole awards focus (acting wise) for the show, which doesn’t explain how she missed CC but her co-star Alex Newell got a supporting nom. Moving on to it’s Live Ratings, it averaged it 2.4m it’s first 6 episodes (an improvement over S1’s 2.1m) but completely collapsed once it was removed from it’s Thursday timeslot (as a This Is Us lead out) to Sunday, now at 1.1m. I’m keeping her in for now because NBC are still pushing for the show as whole (see hosting the ACE awards) and general baroness of the field and unique high concept performance can only help in a year like this.

    6. Robin Thede (A Black Lady Sketch Show) – showed more support than most sketch shows do at last year’s ceremony (see Writing & Guest) and is airing the the prime HBO spring slot that traditionally went to Girls, Silicon, Veep, Barry & Insecure.

    ————————————————————————————

    7. Allison Janney (Mom) – final season and we’ve seen drop offs that come back in weaker fields. Not confident in her returning but I can’t have her any lower than 7th given her status and competition.

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    8. Cristin Miliotti (Made for Love) – her show has been meh-ly received but she has received nothing but praise.

    9. Hailee Steinfeld (Dickinson) – the show have developed a fanbase, a greatly improved second season, creative arts potential and somewhat of a solo campaign for her from Apple in light this being the only comedy category without a Lasso contender. Steinfeld’s rising star status can only help too (which is odd considering was Oscar nominated a decade ago and is a multi-platinum popstar).

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    10. Alia Shawkat (Search Party) – sleeper hit of a show, has fans in the industry (Emma Stone at the very least) and Shawkat is both the creative force behind the scenes and the face of the show in front. If any (non-guest) acting nominations happen for it, it’s her.

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    11. Jean Smart (Hacks) – not know much about this right now considering the talent involved it should be considered. But then again look how well that turned out for Run, Space Force & Moonbase 8.

    12. Aidy Bryant (Shrill) – this might just be hopedicting, but final season of an under-appreciated gem and potentially double nominations along for SNL and being at the top of the ballot makes me think she’ll he at least top 15. Not sure Hulu would want to risk multi-campaigns with Pen15 looking stronger with passing day (I’m sure somewhere they’re glad Fanning & Gomez aren’t eligible).

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    13. Nasim Perad (Chad) – there’s been some early tea on this been outstanding and it’s sounds weird (think Pen15 but from a boy’s perspective and that boy is played by Perad) enough for it to gain some traction.

    ————————————————————————————

    14. Lily Collins (Emily In Paris) – the show certainly has it’s fans, but the backlash after the Globes was SOO loud I doubt the Emmys would want to risk of the bad press of nominating the show outside of Costumes & Production Design.

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    wolfali
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    #1204182926

    Kaley Cuoco is someone who in a competitive year I’d say was not a sure thing for the win (hell even if Elle Fanning made eligibility this year then Kaley would be in danger) because she lost all the precursors but there is absolutely no there viable contender. Jean Smart could surprise, but that’s it.

    She’s not a lock for the win (although she’s absolutely a lock for the nomination and like it or not (I know some on here don’t) so is Ellis Ross) but it’s hard to think who will even get nominated in this category, never mind who will challenge her.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    orangestraw
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    #1204183189

    A delay from the previous thread but about Peacock – is there a reason we’re not considering it other than the network not having had any shows compete in awards yet? Seeing as last year at the Emmys, we didn’t really have any entries for HBO Max either and now that looks set to at least get a lot for The Flight Attendant (and It’s a Sin in limited).

    I do wonder if Girls 5eva and Rutherford Falls would be better fits on NBC itself, but I guess the leads had less name appeal than Kenan, Ted and The Rock. Both shows have interesting concepts, and I’m not counting them out just yet (especially Girls – that cast). It’s a shame that actual NBC’s comedy line-up is such a far cry from what it was even six years ago.

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    puck05
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    #1204183225

    It’s a shame that actual NBC’s comedy line-up is such a far cry from what it was even six years ago.

    They shouldn’t insist with their mediocre workplace sitcoms, even the masters of that form like Tina Fey, Greg Daniels and Michael Schur created character driven serialized comedies once their former sitcoms ended.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204183243

    They shouldn’t insist with their mediocre workplace sitcoms

    And their one workplace sitcoms that actually did work (Superstore), they shunted like an ugly stepchild for six years.

    (that lasted more than a season anyway, rip Telenovela)

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204183309

    If lead categories only have 5 slots then lead actress has a clear templates in case PEN15 is embraced, Cuoco, Ross, Eskrine, Konkle with the final slot being one of Levy, Milioti, Janney, Smart…

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    wolfali
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    #1204183328

    I highly doubt Milioti is happening honestly. That show feels completely buzzless and people who have actually seen it don’t seem to be wowed by it. Also why would HBO push for it when they already have Cuoco and Smart? I am treating Made for Love as HBO Max’s Truth Seekers.

    I wouldn’t exclude Robin Thede as a possibility for Lead Actress. The TV Academy do seem to be watching A Black Lady Sketch Show and the show has the elusive HBO spring comedy slot.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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