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Emmys 2021 Comedy Predictions (Part 5)

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    wolfali
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    #1204247604

    I think both Turner and Reiser can happen. I haven’t seen The Kominsky Method (I didn’t like the pilot) so I don’t know how much prominence either performer has or how liked their performances are by viewers but last year we saw The Good Place bring D’Arcy Carden and William Jackson Harper along with Danson and Insecure bring Yvonne Orji along with Rae.

    Granted Carden and Harper were massive fan favourites but The Kominsky Method is a strong actors branch favourite. It slipped into series over writing + directing nominated The Great and acting + directing nominated Ramy solely due to its amount of support from the actors branch. It was nominated in ensemble at SAG for both its seasons and it retained both Alan Arkin and Michael Douglas there even with stronger competition.

    Of course neither are sure things but if The Kominsky Method is as strong a series contender as it’s series nomination last year and placement in the predictions centre would suggest then I don’t see why it’s implausible for either to be nominated over let’s say Aidy Bryant or Alex Newell and Ray Romano. Especially someone like Turner who has not only been campaigning hard (she’s participating in a Netflix round table with Douglas that also happens to feature Emma Corrin and Josh O’Connor) but is also a 2 time Tony and Academy Award nominated thespian (i.e. she isn’t a nobody).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    gabspss
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    #1204247608

    I’m just gonna say something here I discovered this week for those worried about predicting Girls5eva because it’s on Peacock:

    Peacock has more subscribers than Hulu and Apple TV+ and they are only behind HBO Max, Disney+, Prime Video and Netflix.

    Also, the Peacock campaign team is probably the same one as NBC aka Emmy’s favorite broadcast network.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    wolfali
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    #1204247612

    Peacock has more subscribers than Hulu and Apple TV+ an

    YouTube Premium also has more subscribers than AppleTV+ and that has less above the line nominations than something like The Morning Show has.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    gabspss
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    #1204247616

    YouTube Premium also has more subscribers than AppleTV+ and that has less above the line nominations than something like The Morning Show has.

    Youtube Premium is a package that includes Youtube Music, Youtube Free Ads, Youtube Downloads and Youtube Originals.

    Absolutely not comparable. People who sign for Youtube Premium, in general, are not signing up for the Youtube Originals part of the package.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1204247640

    I disagree a bit?

    Ally McBeal was the frontrunner that year. Sex and the City was probably last place.

    The Practice’s win was a surprise indeed, but it benefited from the tape system. I don’t think it was because they had a cable bias.

    Yeah, SATC is one of my favorite comedies, but S1 is mostly bad. S2 is mostly okay. S3 is when the quality went up, esp with the legendary affair storyline including the Writing/Directing nominee Easy Come Easy Go.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247668

    AppleTV+ has additional subscribers who use it at no cost because just like with Disney+ with some brands, you can get AppleTV+ free for one year when you buy an Apple device. HBO Max already so many subscribers because it’s essentially HBO Go but re-branded and with original content also on offer. There is also more appeal behind it at the moment because of how they’re streaming Warner Bros. films for those who can’t make it to movie theatres during the pandemic.

    I don’t disagree that Girls5Eva could theoretically happen because anything can happen with a field this weak but it feels redundant to argue it’s streaming service is no reason for scepticism. Subscriber size ≠ industry popularity. The Morning Show‘s streaming service may have less subscribers than Peacock but it also starred three of the biggest stars on the planet (each of whom are industry darlings) and had a baity topical premise. Ted Lasso is a massive feel good and escapist hit and starred Jason Sudeikis.

    Now the pedigree of Girls5Eva is promising (or more specifically Tina Fey’s involvement as a producer). So are its glowing reviews. But there is more industry appeal for streamers like AppleTV+ and HBO Max than there is for Peacock. Sure Peacock has more subscribers than AppleTV+ but The Good Doctor is a massive ratings hit for ABC and its lead gives a critically acclaimed Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominated performance yet he can’t manage to land a nomination. Likewise Young Sheldon is a show audiences have tended to actually watch yet something like Pen15 has more Emmy nominations than it. The Good Place couldn’t even break through at the Emmys until it was added onto Netflix and it developed such a strong amount of critical popularity.

    Again I don’t disagree that Girls5Eva stands a *chance* at above the line nominations but unless it becomes some sort of a massive hit or we see it develop a strong sense of industry buzz, it’s not implausible for it to get shut out completely. Even in a field as weak as this one. Rutherford Falls was being hyped up as a massive contender last month, has strong reviews, stars Ed Helms and is produced by Michael Schur yet almost no one is talking about it right now. The Good Fight has had multiple high profile guest stars, has 4 TCA nominations and 10 Critics Choice nominations, is an Amazon exclusive internationally and is led by an industry legend reprising a role she has been nominated for 6 of her 15 Emmy nominations for. Yet it hasn’t broken through due to it lacking wide industry visibility (even in a field as weak as the drama one two years ago where it had such a strong campaign from Viacom).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Heptapod
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    #1204247670

    If it counts for anything, Peacock’s marketing team is pushing hard for Girls5eva. I wouldn’t have known about Rutherford Falls’ existence without Gold Derby, but I’ve seen ads for Girls5eva on several social media apps and websites.

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204247718

    Supporting Actress is such a mess to predict. It’s a weaker field and Hannah Waddingham is probably winning as long as Lasso takes series (the new Alex Borstein if you will lol) but it still feels like a competitive field nominations wise. Are SNL and The Flight Attendant really going to land three supporting actress nominations each? When was the last time a show got three supporting nominations in either comedy or drama category that wasn’t the series frontrunner of had just swept/had lots of buzz and visibility off of winning major Emmys the previous year? Anyway here’s where I’m at in that category. What are the rest of you predicting? 1. Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso 2. Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live (although the episode she hosted of the show is listed on NBC’s FYC site so is she perhaps going guest?) 3. Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live 4. Juno Temple, Ted Lasso 5. Zosia Mamet, The Flight Attendant 6. Chloe Fineman, Saturday Night Live 7. Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant 8. Kathleen Turner, The Kominsky Method 9. Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live 10. Bette Midler, The Politician

    Why do people think Fineman is the 3rd-most likely SNL nominee? I’ve seen that prediction a lot, but I think Ego Nwodim has had the better and buzzier season.

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    Gabarnes43
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    #1204247749

    Interesting to see the NBC Site not featuring Adele’s episode for SNL. It was definitely the most buzzed/talked about episode of the season.

    EMMY FYC

    The Crown in all categories (inc. Olivia Colman & Gillian Anderson)

    I May Destroy You, It’s a Sin, Stateless & The Queens Gambit

    Kate Winslet, Keeley Hawes, Shaun Parkes, Marielle Heller, Michaela Coel

    Ted Lasso & The Flight Attendant in all categories.

    Girls5Eva

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204247768

    An interesting find from NBCU’s FYC site, Young Rock is currently on the front of their overall banner and listed as their top Comedy Series

    Young Rock / Mr. Mayor
    Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist / Resident Alien
    Kenan / Superstore

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    wolfali
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    #1204247780

    Why do people think Fineman is the 3rd-most likely SNL nominee? I’ve seen that prediction a lot, but I think Ego Nwodim has had the better and buzzier season.

    My argument with SNL is that voters don’t actually watch the show (apart from rare word of mouth cases like when Adele hosted or Eddie Redmayne hosted) but watch the sketches online. Hence why Brad Pitt was nominated for a viral impression last year over John Mulaney. Or why the show surged around the election time due to the strong word of mouth.

    Chloe Fineman not only has attracted buzz for her work on SNL but also has a lot of individual buzz going for her right now because of her own viral sketches on Instagram (some of which have attracted more attention than her SNL ones and have been shared by the likes of Reese Witherspoon, Gillian Anderson, Elizabeth Banks, Sarah Paulson etc online). Hence my prediction of her.

    Last year Emmy voters opted to nominate Cecily Strong (who was amassing a lot of goodwill for her work that went viral last season and her star was also rapidly rising) for the first time instead of returning to Aidy Bryant. It’s not implausible for them to do a similar thing this year and nominate Fineman as the third nominee after McKinnon and Rudolph.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    orangestraw
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    #1204247800

    Repeating myself from a few pages back but Chloe’s buzz feels very of late last year, whereas Ego’s ending the season on a high in terms of material, recurring bits and Loco. I personally think in the awards conversation, her and Chloe are around the same area. And Chloe’s not as strong a performer on the show itself than Ego is.

    Again I don’t disagree that Girls5Eva stands a *chance* at above the line nominations but unless it becomes some sort of a massive hit or we see it develop a strong sense of industry buzz, it’s not implausible for it to get shut out completely

    I’m seeing more and more people – actors, journalists – talk about it every time I go on Twitter – the buzz is there.

    FYC:
    Ego Nwodim ("SNL"), Nico Santos ("Superstore"), Lolly Adefope ("Shrill"), MJ Rodriguez ("Pose"), Kate Winslet, Julianne Nicholson ("Mare of Easttown"), Punam Patel ("Special")

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    wolfali
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    #1204247811

    Looks like Netflix are at least doing some campaigning for Cobra Kai.

    https://twitter.com/JPRequiro/status/1390615711442096132

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204247938

    They literally lost to a dramedy and an hour-long one no less. I see the sentiment, but I am jumping on it because this is a recurring fallacious argument here. Do the winning series tend to be on the lighter side? Sure, but what if The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel had not premiered that year? The Emmys would not have jumped over Barry and Atlanta to award Silicon Valley or GLOW just because they were lighter. Then you had dark tragicomedy Fleabag sweeping the next year, dominating over the two previous winners and the next one. So enough with the qualifying of these darker comedies and dramedies as not being darker comedies and dramedies. They are and they do not usually win, but they sometimes do, especially now that we are out of the preferential and tape systems. Who knows if the supposed bias never would have been established as a statistic without those? PGA has a history of cool choices.

    Mrs Maisel is a show about a standout comedian, has colorful costumes, joyful soundtrack and has an overall uplifting tone. There is nothing remotely dramatic happening in it, especially in the first season. Rachel Brosnahan cried like 3 times in the whole show. It’s definitely not on the same level of dramedy as a Barry, Atlanta or a Master Of None so I completely disagree. Same for Fleabag, people considered it laugh out loud funny or the funniest show ever when it got discovered.

    So until one of those shows end up winning (because I’m not saying one will never ever win), I won’t predict them to take series. And so far that helped me predict correctly, especially in the Fleabag v. Barry year.

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    JV
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    #1204248017

    Who is the Lead in Girls5eva ?

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