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Emmys 2021 Comedy Predictions (Part 7)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1204315133

    Part 7 is now open.

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    Victor
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    #1204315189

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/television/emmys-2021-comedy-predictions-part-6/page/34/#post-1204315103

    I think Ross would miss, Blackish seems to be the go-to-vote when you don’t have someone with passion, so i think she can miss.

    FYC Emmys: Get MJ Rodriguez that deserved WIN! And some votes for Elizabeth Olsen, Tobias Menzies and Matthew Rhys will be highly tasteful as well

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    JV
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    #1204315209

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/television/emmys-2021-comedy-predictions-part-6/page/34/#post-1204315103

    I think Ross would miss, Blackish seems to be the go-to-vote when you don’t have someone with passion, so i think she can miss.

    But she has passion. She had enough passion to be nominated over a lot of people last year in a stronger field.

    Both her and Anthony Anderson are incredibly respected by their peers.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204315213

    If they are passionate enough about girls5eva and PEN15, all Goldsberry, Erskine and Konkle can happen over Ross, who is mostly a name check, which is what I’m predicting.

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    Jays
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    #1204315311

    If they are passionate enough about girls5eva and PEN15, all Goldsberry, Erskine and Konkle can happen over Ross, who is mostly a name check, which is what I’m predicting.

    Agreed. I’d put Bareilles in that bunch too. First page on half the ballots + prior nominee + fresh new show. If voters like Girls5eva, she can happen. If you’re predicting a Ross miss, the two PEN15 ladies and Goldsberry is the most likely alternative though.

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204315317

    Agreed. I’d put Bareilles in that bunch too. First page on half the ballots + prior nominee + fresh new show. If voters like Girls5eva, she can happen. If you’re predicting a Ross miss, the two PEN15 ladies and Goldsberry is the most likely alternative though.

    Girls5eva would have to overperform a ton for that though. I could easily see Girls5eva getting 4 or 5 acting nominations before Barellies (Goldsberry, Pell, and 2-3 guest nominees).

    Also wondering, can Black-ish really make the series lineup if its only above the line nom is Anderson’s yearly default nom? At most it will just get 2 contemporary tech nominations beyond that, and I don’t think that’s necessarily enough for series.

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    Jays
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    #1204315323

    Girls5eva would have to overperform a ton for that though. I could easily see Girls5eva getting 4 or 5 acting nominations before Barellies. Also wondering, can Black-ish really make the series lineup if its only above the line nom is Anderson’s yearly default nom? At most it will just get 2 contemporary tech nominations beyond that, and I don’t think that’s necessarily enough for series.

    I don’t know, supporting actress is actually pretty competitive especially if they go in on Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant and/or SNL. I’m not sure what Pell and Phillip’s chances are there and if they’re definitely more likely to happen before Bareilles in lead. Imo, the only people from that show that will definitely get in before Bareilles are Goldsberry and Fey.

    As for Black-ish, I’m not predicting it right now but I think it’s possible it just misses series. It hasn’t gotten in there since 2018.

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    wolfali
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    #1204315327

    Both Black-ish and This is Us feel a bit like The Good Wife in trajectory?

    They’re both shows that do well depending on how competitive a field is and are dependant largely on support from the actors branch but since their snubs in series both have lost too much support for them to slip back into a weaker field  (such as both’s failures to slip back into SAG). Even when they have seasons that are attracting a lot of buzz. I think both could do well in actors branch support  (although admittedly I have Ross missing) but I don’t see them slipping back into series so easily. Especially with there already being 5 shows that definitely outnumber it in support  (Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant, Hacks, Pen15 and The Kominsky Method) and so many shows that could slip in due to their rising popularity and the goodwill of their previous installments (such as Search Party) and those that could be writer backed nominees (like Mythic Quest).

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204315512

    I don’t know, supporting actress is actually pretty competitive especially if they go in on Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant and/or SNL. I’m not sure what Pell and Phillip’s chances are there and if they’re definitely more likely to happen before Bareilles in lead. Imo, the only people from that show that will definitely get in before Bareilles are Goldsberry and Fey. As for Black-ish, I’m not predicting it right now but I think it’s possible it just misses series. It hasn’t gotten in there since 2018.

    I personally think it would be pretty hard for it to get double lead noms in a field of 5 if it’s not strong enough to get into Guest Actor at least. In any case, I think Girls5eva is pretty borderline for series anyways.

    Both Black-ish and This is Us feel like The Good Wife. They’re both shows that do well depending on how competitive a field is and are dependant largely on support from the actors branch but since their snubs in series both have lost too much support for them to slip back into a weaker field (such as both’s failures to slip back into SAG). Even when they have seasons that are attracting a lot of buzz. I think both could do well in actors branch support (although admittedly I have Ross missing) but I don’t see them slipping back into series so easily. Especially with there already being 5 shows that definitely outnumber it in support (Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant, Hacks, Pen15 and The Kominsky Method) and so many shows that could slip in due to their rising popularity and the goodwill of their previous installments (such as Search Party) and those that could be writer backed nominees (like Mythic Quest).

    Maybe, but This Is Us is facing a way weaker field than Black-ish is or than The Good Wife ever did. Even if it isn’t cool anymore, it still should be ahead of Perry Mason and In Treatment, which means a miss would largely depend on the writers being able to get both The Boys and For All Mankind in and Pose having a major resurgence.

    Either way, I probably should drop Black-ish.

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    Jays
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    #1204315706

    I personally think it would be pretty hard for it to get double lead noms in a field of 5 if it’s not strong enough to get into Guest Actor at least. In any case, I think Girls5eva is pretty borderline for series anyways.

    Guest actor is insanely difficult to predict, especially because of all the SNL submissions (which kind of all make sense as nominees lol). I don’t really agree with the thinking that Bareilles can only happen if someone happens in Guest Actor or if Pell or Phillips happen in Supporting Actress. Those are two different categories that are more competitive than Lead Actress. Sometimes it just works out that some performances have easier paths because their category is a bit more open, even if you think that performance is weaker (in terms of quality) than one that’s competing in Supporting or Guest.

    As for series, I think it’s in. Too much pedigree/acclaim, IMO, for it to miss to a show like Mythic Quest or Cobra Kai or Search Party which haven’t broken through at the Emmy’s and don’t have that first season/new show narrative.

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    Victor
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    #1204315716

    I would be shocked if Blackish returns to Series, it missed last year when Ross made it back in and it was an empty field as well.

    Anthony Anderson will happen forever, but I’m not sure on Ross.

    FYC Emmys: Get MJ Rodriguez that deserved WIN! And some votes for Elizabeth Olsen, Tobias Menzies and Matthew Rhys will be highly tasteful as well

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    wolfali
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    #1204315730

    As for series, I think it’s in. Too much pedigree/acclaim, IMO, for it to miss to a show like Mythic Quest or Cobra Kai or Search Party which haven’t broken through at the Emmy’s and don’t have that first season/new show narrative.

    Not saying Girls5Eva will definitely miss but I don’t think a first season narrative triumphs over the fact that at the end of the day, it might lack the visibility and support that each of those aforementioned shows may have because each of them have been say growing in visibility since the summer.

    It could always be <i>The Kominsky Method</i> to one of those show’s Schitt’s Creek. Or The Great to something like Mythic Quest‘s What We Do in the Shadows. Each of the first season comedies that have broken through at the Emmys either have been releases from the first half of eligibility (AtlantaMaiselTed LassoMaster of None etc) or been a HBO/Netflix product (i.e. Russian DollBarry). The latter factor plays in something like Hacks‘ favour for sure but neither really apply to Girls5Eva.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    JV
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    #1204315743

    Based on what wolfali said
    Firs season shows:

    2010: None
    2011: None
    2012: Veep, Girls
    2013: None
    2014: Orange is the New Black, Silicon Valley
    2015: Transparent, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
    2016: Master of None
    2017: Atlanta
    2018: Barry, Glow, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel
    2019: Russian Doll
    2020: None

    Veep: 22 April, 2012
    Girls: 15 April, 2012
    Orange is the New Black: July 11, 2013
    Silicon Valley: April 6, 2014
    Transparent: February 6, 2014
    Kimmy Schmidt: March 6, 2015
    Master of None: November 6, 2015
    Atlanta: September 6, 2016
    Barry: March 25, 2018
    Glow: June 23, 2017
    The Marvelous Mrs Maisel: March 17, 2017
    Russian Doll: February 1, 2019

    Late releases:
    Veep: A great buzzy performance from an iconic actress from industry, HBO show
    Girls: Acclaimed show and aired at the same time Veep did, HBO show
    Silicon Valley: HBO show
    Kimmy Schimidt: Netflix show
    Barry: HBO show
    Russian Doll: Acclaimed show from Netflix

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    Jays
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    #1204315749

    Not saying Girls5Eva will definitely miss but I don’t think a first season narrative triumphs over the fact that at the end of the day, it might lack the visibility and support that each of those aforementioned shows may have because each of them have been say growing in visibility since the summer.

    It could always be <i>The Kominsky Method</i> to one of those show’s Schitt’s Creek. Or The Great to something like Mythic Quest‘s What We Do in the Shadows. Each of the first season comedies that have broken through at the Emmys either have been releases from the first half of eligibility (Atlanta, Maisel, Ted Lasso, Master of None etc) or been a HBO/Netflix product (i.e. Russian Doll, Barry). The latter factor plays in something like Hacks‘ favour for sure but neither really apply to Girls5Eva.

    Peacock is a new streaming service so obviously there isn’t going to be a precedent there. I do think getting nominated for its first season is more likely than something niche like Mythic Quest or Search Party suddenly being fully embraced by the Emmy’s to the point where they crack series. What’s the precedent there? Mythic Quest has one nomination throughout the show’s entire run and that’s for production design. When was the last time a show went from that to multiple above the line Emmy nominations? Search Party is in its fourth season and hasn’t been recognized by the industry at all. Where’s the precedent there?

    I’m operating under the impression that Girls5eva will seen by the right people for a variety of reasons – produced by the team behind 30 Rock and UKS, recognizable cast, solid campaign. We don’t know how the industry will react to it, which is an advantage (imo). What we do know is how long running shows, like the one’s I mentioned, have performed in the past. I haven’t seen enough signs that they’re all due for a breakout the way Schitt’s Creek or What We Do in the Shadows were.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204315756

    New thread thoughts on Series

    1. Ted Lasso (AppleTV+) – frontrunner until otherwise proven (ie severely underperforming on nomination morning).

    2. The Flight Attendant (HBO Max) – similar to Lasso, slowly building buzz and acclaim throughout the season, hit everywhere necessary and has a near locked win in Directing.

    ——————————————————————————————–

    3. The Kominsky Method (Netflix) – actors favourite and the only returning nominee from last year. Ended on a high note and reunited two beloved icons. No reason to think why this isn’t getting in.

    4. Pen15 (Hulu) – a natural industry discovery, has the writers (and Helen Mirren’s) backing, is Hulu’s sole push and they are putting all that newly acquired Disney campaign money to good use.

    5. Hacks (HBO Max) – peaking at the right time and has the likely Actress winner (which has correlated to a Series nom in 18 of the last 21 ceremonies – 86%).

    ——————————————————————————————–

    6. girls5eva (Peaock) – heavily campaigned and feel good breakout hit of the season. Visibility/platform could be still be issue for a potential miss.

    7. Master of None (Netflix) – not confident in this at all but it’s a recognisable brand and will likely get noms for Ackie and Directing/Writing.

    ——————————————————————————————–

    8. Search Party (HBO Max) – was toying with a number shows (this, Superstore, Mythic Quest) for the “undersung show with a passionate base gets in a less-than-competitive field” slot. Went with Search Party after the recent Variety Emmy “most likely” survey, where Search Party was the 3rd most mentioned comedy series after Pen15 & Lasso. Like Pen15, I feel this has gathered a lot more industry visibility than we realise and the move to HBO has been incredibly beneficial in its visibility.

    ——————————————————————————————–

    9. Cobra Kai (Netflix) – the individual parties of the show are heavily campaigning, widely watched and the perfect blends of Schitt’s Creek (natural Netflix discovery) and Mandalorian (beloved Spielberg-ian 80s blockbuster). Don’t have it in any other Primetime categories right now so can’t justify a Series nomination

    10. black•ish (ABC) – it’s not gathering any new fans this late into its run, and it’s incredibly rare for a dropped Series to bounce back (especially without SAG/actor support), it’ll likely get its regular four nominations (Anderson, Ross, Costumes, Hair) so still considering it in a longlist for that reason.

    ——————————————————————————————–

    11. Superstore (NBC) – I oddly think this very American show could be the benefit from the British bloc / international vote, due it’s new Netflix popularity in the UK and Australia. Powered through successfully throughout covid and stuck the landing so incredibly well.

    12. Mythic Quest (AppleTV+) – Apple have been spending big bucks on this FYC’s (some may say more than necessary), since they’ve literally got money to burn that’s not surprising for them to do it but for this show, it for this show when they already have the frontrunner it kinda is. The combination of buzz from the bottle episodes and the Abraham centric ones hit at just the hit right but still think McElhenny (as the de factoface of and show runner) is the most likely out of anything from the show.

    ——————————————————————————————–

    13. Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist (NBC) – had this in top five three weeks but that cancellation torpedoed nearly of all its chance. Will be a pleasant surprise if I’m proven wrong.

    14. Emily in Paris (Netflix) – I liked this show and it’ll probably get a lot of love from Half-Hour crafts but after it destroyed the HFPA, I can’t imagine they would a conscious effort to avoid it in the major Primetime categories to avoid embarrassment.

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