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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 11)

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    wolfali
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    #1204360203

    Totally unpopular opinion but I don’t think Anderson is that unbeatable, don’t see a lot of passion for her performance, Someone like Wiley, Aunjuane or even Brewer could win here.

    I feel like once we get to this stage of the season we all start to overthink things. Don’t get me wrong we all do it too haha! I ended up predicting that Schitt’s Creek would win series, actress, s. actor and directing but somehow lose writing because I thought it would vote-split and pave the way for a Good Place win last year lmao.

    I personally think Anderson winning is one of the safest bets of the night (along with Sudeikis) because she swept the winter awards over tougher competition (including incumbent winner Julia Garner) even though I don’t think a drama supporting performance has ever done that and the bait of her role alone is too big for these voters to ignore (just like with John Lithgow). I also think that there isn’t enough passion for Ellis to win and that The Handmaid’s Tale supporting actresses will vote-split (unpopular but I actually have Yvonne Strahovski as the Handmaid’s actress who is “ahead” because I get this feeling that there is a lot of passion for her in this role that has been building for a few seasons, although I don’t see her overcoming Anderson).

    There are way too many categories for history to factor into a vote for a supporting Emmy. What concerns me about Michael K. Williams is whether Lovecraft Country is something that seems strong because of all of its nominations, but has actually inspired significant apathy, like how widely-nominated Better Call Saul and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt could not get what should have been getable wins for Jonathan Banks and Tituss Burgess.

    I have Williams as my predicted winner for now but this Better Call Saul and Lovecraft comparison is a good one. Although Lovecraft has done well in nominations, it has a few significant omissions like in directing and editing which could suggest a lack of overwhelming passion (just like how Better Call Saul only got into directing once and never slipped into casting even though it managed to get four acting nominations in 2019).

    I’m very interested to see who wins the drama guest actor race. I’ve learnt to not rely too much on the winners in this category when making above the line acting predictions (especially with how name-checky the guest categories tend to be) but if Charles Dance wins over Courtney B. Vance, I wonder if it could foreshadow a Menzies upset. Just like Menzies, Dance was snubbed last year when he had strong material but now he has slipped into this year’s lineup with The Crown‘s growth in awards strength and the weaker field in spite of having small amounts of screen time. Him winning might suggest that voters who missed season 3 might have secretly caught up on it since the last Emmy cycle and that both Dance and Menzies could have enough goodwill from their work in both seasons to pull off wins here. Not predicting such a thing at the moment but it could happen.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204360220

    Yeah, Lovecraft Country might not receive the love from every branch, but the fact that it got five actors nominated indicates that it is such a threat in the acting branch. While M. K. Williams is not my personal pick, O- T Fagbenle is, he checks so many boxes that generate a passion specifically for his performance. He is a long-time player in the industry that still has not gotten what he deserves, now has the opportunity to shine in a lineup that really favours him. We don’t even talk about his performance, which is terrific to say the least. If we think tape does help, he also submits the best tape in every way possible. Thus, yeah, behold our winner!

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    wolfali
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    #1204360233

    Yeah, Lovecraft Country might not receive the love from every branch, but the fact that it got five actors nominated indicates that it is such a threat in the acting branch.

    It definitely is a threat to win supporting actor but just because it got five acting nominations, it doesn’t mean it’s locked to win an acting award. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel got 7 acting nominations last year yet it got shut out in acting wins. The Good Place got the same number of acting nominations as Schitt’s Creek yet lost all its acting categories last year. Saturday Night Live got 7 acting nominations in 2019 yet got shut out in wins. Multiple acting nominations suggest actors have watched and liked your show but it doesn’t necessarily suggest they will vote for it when it comes to the win.

    If The Crown pulls a Schitt’s Creek or these voters end up being taken by the acting in shows like The Handmaid’s Tale or PoseLovecraft can easily be shut out in acting wins.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Couverture
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    #1204360489

    I personally think Anderson winning is one of the safest bets of the night (along with Sudeikis) because she swept the winter awards over tougher competition (including incumbent winner Julia Garner) even though I don’t think a drama supporting performance has ever done that

    You are correct. If we count limited and comedy supporting performances too, then only Skarsgard for BLL has achieved the SAG+GG+CC sweep as well. Going even further back, apart from Gillian, only Sandra Oh (😔) has won the SAG+GG combo as a supporting performance from a drama series since SAG awards started in 1995.

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    estrelas
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    #1204360501

    You are correct. If we count limited and comedy supporting performances too, then only Skarsgard for BLL has achieved the SAG+GG+CC sweep as well. Going even further back, apart from Gillian, only Sandra Oh (😔) has won the SAG+GG combo as a supporting performance from a drama series since SAG awards started in 1995.

    And lets be honest, she only lost because of the tape system. She would’ve won under the current voting system.

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204360603

    Well I don’t know; how many East Asian acting emmy winners are we up to now?

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204360942

    Well I don’t know; how many East Asian acting emmy winners are we up to now?

    Isn’t still only Darren Criss?

    Oscars FYC:

    "CODA" – in all categories

    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Sup. Actor (Richard E. Grant), Sup. Actress (Sarah Lancashire) and Original Song (“This Was Me”)

    "King Richard" – Original Song (“Be Alive”)

    "Summer of Soul" – Picture, Film Editing and Documentary Feature

    “The Green Knight” – in all categories

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204361589

    eh, he’s like 13% or something, i don’t count it

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    wolfali
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    #1204361948

    Well I don’t know; how many East Asian acting emmy winners are we up to now?

    I can’t really speak for why Sandra Oh hasn’t won an Emmy yet but I think what’s often glossed over is the fact that there aren’t many South Asian or East Asian acting Emmy nominees in the first place. As Viola Davis said in her Emmy speech, you can’t win for roles that aren’t there. As someone who is of South Asian descent it feels almost miraculous that Riz Ahmed and Archie Panjabi are the only actors of South Asian descent to have won Emmys not because of the fact there weren’t any before them but because there were hardly any nominees before them. Its quite rare to see a role for South Asian actors on television aren’t one-note or perpetuating backwards stereotypes.

    Of course there are some voters in these groups who are quite racist (it does feel inexcusable that something like Never Have I Ever failed to get in when it had so much audience, critical and even industry buzz when it was released when everyone was at home at the beginning of last year) but it feels tiring that this issue is almost entirely limited to that argument. The problem is much more systemic than that and won’t get that much better until representation gets better on screen.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Luca
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    #1204361951

    I have switched to Mj Rodriguez in actress and have no intention of switching to anyone else before the ceremony. Her incoming win is becoming more predictable by the day IMO.

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    wolfali
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    #1204362043

    Whatever happens the gays are winning come Emmy night.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204362083

    Whatever happens the gays are winning come Emmy night.

    Right. I’m rooting hard for Mj but both legends

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204362144

    as someone whose friends are almost all queer, none of us watch the crown. while we’ve watched pose en masse.

    not everyone can relate to rich middle-aged straight whites.

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    wolfali
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    #1204362149

    as someone whose friends are almost all queer, none of us watch the crown. while we’ve watched pose en masse. not everyone can relate to rich middle-aged straight whites.

    Oh sweetheart you don’t get it do you?

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    24fanatic
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    Nov 6th, 2010
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    #1204362163

    I’m torn with Lead Actress. It really could go in so many directions:

    Emma: a “Star is Born” moment

    MJ: Emmy history making moment

    Elisabeth: 2nd win moment to a favorite during a series resurgence

    Olivia: overdue win moment for one of the industry’s most respected actresses (on her final chance for this show)

    I will say, I do think people are underestimating Olivia. I think Zendaya really benefitted last year by being up against Hollywood veterans who split the vote. That won’t happen this year… in fact the opposite of what happened last year could happen…

    There’s a chance the young girls split (Jurnee, Emma, MJ), no one watched Uzo’s show, leaving Elisabeth vs Olivia. Olivia is the only Oscar winner in the group and has yet to win an Emmy despite being a TV veteran with multiple noms under her belt.

    All depends on who actually has the support I suppose. Emma and MJ are probably in the lead to win, but I wouldn’t discount Olivia.

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