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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 12)

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    Luca
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    #1204364886

    There is a fundamental difference between voting for the nominations and for the wins. Once you get nominated, things change. Getting past the unlimited nominating slots on the ballot can be tough, especially for someone like Mj, who had never before been nominated and whose show isn’t a smash with the acting branch either. But she made the cut — and don’t tell me it’s merely because of an empty field when she got in over previous Emmy nominees and/or winners Mandy Moore and Sarah Paulson, among others. Plus, empty field or not, she’s nominated, so that argument is irrelevant anyway. Now that she got the nomination though, all she needs is passion, and boy does she have that. Of course Emma can still win, but there’s absolutely reason to think about this race.

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    Ghost
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    #1204364895

    I mean, I don’t like to underestimate anyone, but I think people are getting over their heads in thinking that the Pose support is stronger than it actually is. It’s not like the show would get all those noms in a more crowded field…

    It doesn’t have to be about support for Pose. It could be just that the support is big enough for Mj and/or Billy Porter. In the drama acting categories, it has been more about support for the actor/performance than the show itself. See Zendaya/Euphoria, Tatiana Maslany/Orphan Black, Rami Malek/Mr. Robot, Viola Davis/How to Get Away with Murder, etc. Pose is clearly bigger this year or any other year than those shows from their respective winning performances…

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204364919

    Rami Malek/Mr. Robot

    I’m still baffled as to how he missed for season 2. I understand for the later seasons once the buzz had died down but not when he was the incumbent winner.

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    wolfali
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    #1204364975

    Well I’ll happily embrace that surprise if it happens because I just don’t see how Porter wins.

    I think Rodriguez is most definitely in a potential upset position because she does seem to have garnered strong buzz following her historic nomination and she did get a nomination at TCA which could suggest passion but where is this buzz or drive to award Billy Porter? Unlike Rodriguez he didn’t get in at TCA (in spite of being a previous nominee in a much weaker field) and there is no evidence that there’s been an increase in support for Pose as opposed to the show having benefitted from airing closer to eligibility and a much weaker field than last year’s. Dominique Jackson still missed supporting actress in spite of having garnered an incredible amount of buzz at the right time. Noma Dumezweni and Angelica Ross missed in guest actress in spite of the former being on the same page of the ballot as (and directly above) nominees Claire Foy and McKenna Grace and in spite of the latter having been a series regular who has appeared on the guest ballot for the first time this season. Most significantly though Pose missed in casting which was a nomination it received for its first season (which also happened to coincidentally also be when Porter won).

    Those who are watching this season of Pose do seem to be passionate about the performance that Porter gives but how many of these voters have seen this season? And if passion can drive Porter to a repeat win then why didn’t he do so last year when he also had a performance that similar drove a lot of passion, was the reigningt champ, the second season of Pose had just started gathering more eyeballs on Netflix and the series winner had two leads who could have split the vote? This year he’s up against a lead of the 24 times nominated series frontrunner (and likely winner) who won at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and is BAFTA and SAG nominated and also is a rising star who has a “last chance” narrative. O’Connor doesn’t seem to be lagging in passion nor does he seem to be lagging in visibility either and I think the latter might be a deciding factor in this race. Ramy and Insecure both performed well last year and people had assumed that would make both its acting nominees win competitive even though most agreed (or at least by the end of the season) that series was Schitt’s Creek‘s. Same with The Good Place where people assumed because of how well it performed in nominations that Ted Danson could upset with a final season narrative and a performance that was buzzed about amongst those who watched and enjoyed its fourth season. In fact quite a lot of people (myself included) predicted Ramy Youssef to win over Eugene Levy because it was assumed the former had enough visibility and the latter lacked passion to win. Just like Schitt’s CreekThe Crown exploded on nominations day.

    Before anyone asks no, I’m not biased against Porter. Although I’m rooting for The Crown in series, I absolutely love Pose (haven’t seen season 3 yet though), thought it was and is criminally under-recognised and prefer Porter’s work in the first two seasons to O’Connor’s in season 3 and 4 (both are great though) so I really don’t mind who wins. I just don’t see how Porter becomes the first person to repeat in drama actor and the first person to win after having lost in drama actor since Bryan Cranston (whose wins were not only under a tape system but his latter win was when his show won drama series and swept) and I just don’t see how Pose becomes the first drama to win both lead acting categories since Homeland and the first show since Schitt’s Creek (both shows won series).

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204365012

    Mj Rodriguez is Shira Haas, Ramy Youssef, etc.  Sure, in another year, she would win, but she is going up against someone who ticks all the boxes, so there is not reason to think that she would leapfrog her.  Haas was in the first runner-up in the series race and she had the kind of breakthrough performance that has wielded a winning level of passion in recent years, but Regina King was strong too and Watchmen was sweeping.  Rodriguez is not in the first runner-up in the series race, but she is a passion pick.  But Emma Corrin is strong too and The Crown is sweeping.

    The Crown is not going 1-for-18 like Ozark (Zendaya over Linney), it is not a broadcast soap like How to Get Away with Murder (Maslany over Davis) or something not competitive for series like House of Cards (Malek over Spacey).  The Crown is sweeping the ceremony, like Schitt’s Creek and Watchmen and unlike Ozark, How to Get Away with Murder and House of Cards, so its acclaimed and pivotal lead is not going to randomly get left behind.

    This is a sweep era—well, system actually.  I entertained the ideas of Haas and Youssef overcoming sweeps, as well as Benedict Cumberbatch over Darren Criss, plus Jeremy Strong losing last year.  Others had Julia Louis-Dreyfus or Catherine O’Hara over Phoebe Waller-Bridge and Rachel Brosnahan.  Enough!

    Billy Porter beat Jason Bateman, but would/did he beat Jeremy Strong?  Jodie Comer beat Sandra Oh, but woul she have beaten Elisabeth Moss?  Zendaya beat Laura Linney, but would she have beaten Moss either?  The Crown season 4 at the Emmys is that The Handmaid’s Tale season 1; it is Succession season 2; it is Watchmen; it is Big Little Lies season 1 and Rodriguez is facing it.  She did not get lucky like Riz Ahmed or Sterling K. Brown or Bill Hader and land in a category that was up for grabs.

    I am not saying that leading a series winner guarantees you the win.  But nobody thinks that Emma Corrin is Kit Harington or Jeremy Irons or even Jared Harris.  She is actually the Jharrel Jerome, the Zendaya, the Mj Rodriguez that we would be arguing could upset the frontrunner.

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    Luca
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    #1204365085

    Those are very good points indeed.

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    Victor
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    #1204365087

    Is The Crown really going to pull of a Schitts Creek tho?
    I do understand the point of view, that Succession and Watchmen were so undeniable that at least one big win was inevitable and it was going to block someone with a lot of passion, but for me this is Gillian Anderson no?

    Watchmen won 2 acting awards, but it lost a BIG one that was widely predicted to win with Jean Smart losing to Aduba.
    Succession’s Sarah Snook was what you can call a Emma Corrin this year, young, check all the boxes, breakthrough performance with passion to spare in a series winner, and yet she lost to a Garner repeat and the show ended up going 1/4 on the principal acting categories, still an easy series win.

    I guess you can call The Crown 4 a The Handmaid’s Tale S1 and Emma/MJ would be a Ann Dowd/Thandiwe Newton situation, i guess we’ll see.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204365094

    Is The Crown really going to pull of a Schitts Creek tho?

    Honestly as time goes on I’ll probably get increasingly tempted to predict this for the sake of being done speculating, although I don’t see Tobias Menzies winning and Olive Kitteridge is a precedent for a Series winner falling short of the full sweep.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204365121

    Succession’s Sarah Snook was what you can call a Emma Corrin this year, young, check all the boxes, breakthrough performance with passion to spare in a series winner

    No.

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    wolfali
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    #1204365130

    Yeah I disagree with the Corrin-Snook comparison. Corrin’s performance and the introduction of her character are at the centre of The Crown‘s acclaim and buzz this season. She’s the reason why there’s been so much attention on it, why its broken through with awards groups it hadn’t with before and why its broken through with mainstream audiences. Snook was excellent in season 2 of Succession but her performance wasn’t really at the centre of the show’s buzz.

    I’d argue Josh O’Connor is more comparable to Sarah Snook in the sense that his buzz is secondary to his co-stars but even then he seems to have a lot more going for him than Snook did (rising star in film, has a baitier performance, weaker competition etc).

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Manav
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    #1204365167

    In my opinion,Moss can upset Corrin. The resurgence of THT has been one of the highlights and with the Series having so much buzz, and a potential of Splitting of votes between Colman-Corrin and a lack of acting branch support for Rodriguez (as someone said,Pose missed Casting and Jackson didn’t get into supporting) ,Moss could come on top.
    Colman COULD (I’m not saying she will but she can) hurt Corrin the way she probably hurt Sian Clifford when Fleabag almost swept. As we know,the future Dame Olivia Colman is beloved. The Crown didn’t get in anyone unexpected (maybe Fennell but she was also widely predicted..it didn’t get in Doherty although Foy did get in with a tiny cameo) but THT got in almost everyone from its cast (Poor Joseph Fiennes). 10 acting noms + casting is not a joke by any means. Moss is a previous winner and has the added advantage of directing too. Plus she’s doing interviews left and right. In Nielsen Ratings THT has been in top 7-8 since it aired and was even at no.2 for 2 weeks,so it Has visibility (ofc)

    As of now, I think Corrin is the FRONTRUNNER but Moss is the “Could Win” option with maybe Rodriguez as another option.

    Either way,the race is 100 times more exciting than what seemed to be a foregone conclusion by March.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204365202

    It’s not like the show would get all those noms in a more crowded field…

    This can be said about plenty other shows aswell, tho, especially THT. That was an argument that kept being used against PYW during Oscars and still went on to win screenplay.

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    mateil
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    #1204365215

    Found an interesting stat regarding Drama and Comedy Writing and Directing: With the exception of Breaking Bad and Veep everytime a series won for the first time it won both Directing and Writing. Thoughts?

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    Babygirl
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    #1204365223

    Mj Rodriguez is Shira Haas, Ramy Youssef, etc.

    I think this comparison is flawed tbh. I get what you mean, but Ramy and Shira never had the passion Mj is growing to have at the moment. Plus Ramy missed things such as Series, Pose had a much stronger showing.

    I think with the buzz Mj has currently, she is definitely capable of winning against someone in a “sweeper”.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204365227

    Mj Rodriguez is Shira Haas, Ramy Youssef, etc.

    No offense, but your argument is already flawed there. Ramy Youssef show couldn’t even get in Series despite the weak field. Ramy was definitely weaker than Pose, who broke through surprisingly in both writing and directing in addition to Series and which already has won a Lead award over a SAG winner in a stronger show 2 years ago. Regarding Shira Haas, yes Unorthodox was a stronger show but she was not more buzzed than Mj who has even gotten a TCA nom (and over Corrin…), which Haas failed to do. Her passion is definitely bigger, not just among critics, but especially on social media. And it goes without saying that Emma Corrin is no multiple Emmy and Oscar winner Regina King.

    Yes Emma Corrin can still be our winner, but starting an argument comparing Rodriguez to people who were undoubtedly weaker than her is off.

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