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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 4)

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    Chris Beachum
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    Part 4 is now open.

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    wolfali
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    Hmm how can you say actors didn’t watch s2 or s3 considering it’s when it won SAG ensemble?

    Well SAG often tends to go for repeats in ensemble categories and that category was a weaker one where The Crown and <i>Game of Thrones </i>were ineligible.

     Susan Kelechi Watson missed in a category dominated by 4 Got actresses and that also contained one of the strongest supporting actresses in recent years wih Julia Garner.

    Susan Kelechi Watson (with one of the most acclaimed supporting performances that year that was said to be undeniable) also missed for Fiona Shaw essentially coming in, throwing caustic jibes and sitting down on a chair in Killing Eve season 2.

    This Is Us was also snubbed in Ensemble last year, and yet ended up having more acting nominations than ensemble winner The Crown or Ensemble nominees THT, Stranger Things and Big Little Lies

    The nebulous guest categories aside, This is Us missed for The Crown in Drama Actress and Drama S. Actress, The Handmaid’s Tale in Drama S. Actor (even though it was nominated in that category the previous year) and Big Little Lies in S. Actress (x2). It also received the same amount of acting nominations as The Handmaid’s Tale and THT received more nominations in above the line acting categories than it did. It received only one acting nomination above the line and it was for its most famous star.

    actually winning one of its acting nominations (which isn’t really a repeat considering he didnt win the previous year…). It may have lost a big part of its viewership which causes its Ensemble snubs, but it does seem to still have support among the acting branch at the Emmys.

    The category This is Us won in was by default. It was a category that lacked a frontrunner and comprised of two cameos, a lone nomination for a performance in a Disney sci-fi show, a lone name-check nomination for someone nominated twice above the line and a lone nomination for someone who became more visible in the US after they were snubbed for starring in the Comedy Series Emmy winner the previous year.

     especially with really odds arguments like TIU not being watched by actors for years.

    I don’t see how it is odd to say that voters aren’t simply tuning in to a buzzless show when actors who viewers of the show consider to be the standouts are constantly missing nominations.

     but you should stop attacking everyone who isn’t considering The Crown to be a lock in every single category in February.

    Yes I am attacking everyone not considering <i>The Crown </i>to be a lock in every single category in February… Which is why I am predicting The Crown to lose three acting races at the Emmys.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    hopelesstar
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    Well SAG often tends to go for repeats in ensemble categories and that category was a weaker one where The Crown and <i>Game of Thrones </i>were ineligible.

    SAG would have given 2 Ensemble wins to what you consider to have been a buzzless show that actors aren’t watching over programs like Ozark? All right.

    Susan Kelechi Watson (with one of the most acclaimed supporting performances that year that was said to be undeniable) also missed for Fiona Shaw essentially coming in, throwing caustic jibes and sitting down on a chair in Killing Eve season 2.

    That’s just a testimony of Fiona Shaw’s strength that this forum has always been underestimating. You are also purposely ignoring Michael Angarano’s nomination, that once again couldn’t have had happened if they weren’t watching the show. Same thing for Chris Sullivan. Are we also considering The Emmys and the Golden Globes didn’t watch Ozark s3 because Pelphrey was snubbed now?

    The nebulous guest categories aside, This is Us missed for The Crown in Drama Actress and Drama S. Actress, The Handmaid’s Tale in Drama S. Actor (even though it was nominated in that category the previous year) and Big Little Lies in S. Actress (x2). It also received the same amount of acting nominations as The Handmaid’s Tale and THT received more nominations in above the line acting categories than it did. It received only one acting nomination above the line and it was for its most famous star.

    I made a mistake regarding THT, but that doesn’t change the other facts, This Is Us had more acting nominations than Ensemble winner The Crown. Funny how you used Susan Kelechi-Watson snub as a sign they weren’t watching, when they ignored who The Crown stans have claimed to be undeniable, Jane Lapotaire and Charles Dance (both top 5 in gd odds), over This Is Us actors. No matter how you want to spin it, the facts are here. Or maybe you want to argue here aswell that they didn’t watch The Crown s3?

    I don’t see how it is odd to say that voters aren’t simply tuning in to a buzzless show when actors who viewers of the show consider to be the standouts are constantly missing nominations.

    TIU has been so buzzless for years that The Crown s4, that apparently everyone is talking about, can’t even reach TIU’s peak (which is btw s2, that you claim voters didn’t watch despite an Ensemble win)

    I don’t even know why I’m debatting this as it’s barely relevant to this season, but TIU has been a hit among actors and they have always been the show’s biggest supporters. And even if the support has fallen down, as shown by the ensemble snubs,  saying they weren’t watching since s2 or that Sterling K. Brown has been constantly name checked is simply moronic. I frankly expect better from a veteran user.

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    wolfali
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    Funny how you used Susan Kelechi-Watson snub as a sign they weren’t watching, when they ignored who The Crown stans have claimed to be undeniable, Jane Lapotaire and Charles Dance (both top 5 in gd odds), over This Is Us actors. No matter how you want to spin it, the facts are here. Or maybe you want to argue here aswell that they didn’t watch The Crown s3?

    Well it’s quite clear they didn’t watch The Crown season 3 either. They just checked off the two buzziest members of the cast or probably got up to episode 3 (hence Lapotaire, Dance, Menzies and O’Connor’s snubs).

     

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    Hope Davis joins the cast of Succession Season 3.

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    Victor
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    #1204054938

    MATTHEW
    RHYS

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    wolfali
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    MATTHEW RHYS

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Heptapod
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    Put together a list of contenders, does this look accurate?

    (Not all of these are real contenders but there are so few viable ones that I’m not really counting much out lol)

    ALREADY PREMIERED:
    The Boys (Prime Video)
    Bridgerton (Netflix)
    The Chi (Showtime)
    The Crown (Netflix)
    For All Mankind (Apple TV+)
    The Good Doctor (NBC)
    His Dark Materials (HBO)
    I Hate Suzie (HBO Max)
    Industry (HBO)
    Lovecraft Country (HBO)
    The Mandalorian (Disney+)
    Perry Mason (HBO)
    P-Valley (Starz)
    Ratched (Netflix)
    Star Trek: Discovery (Paramount+)
    This Is Us (NBC)
    The Twilight Zone (Paramount+)
    The Umbrella Academy (Netflix)
    Yellowstone (Paramount)

    CONFIRMED TO PREMIERE:
    The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+)
    Godfather of Harlem (Epix)
    In Treatment (HBO)
    Loki (Disney+)
    The Mosquito Coast (Apple TV+)
    The Nevers (HBO)
    Shadow and Bone (Netflix)
    Tell Me Your Secrets (Prime Video)

    MAYBE MAKING IT:
    The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
    Succession (HBO)
    The Wheel of Time (Prime Video)

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    wolfali
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    Yep that sounds right but I’d be surprised if Succession makes it. A HBO exec hinted it would come in Q4 and they’re still filming.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Heptapod
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    My ranking of the drama series contenders, assuming Succession and The Wheel of Time miss.

    1. The Crown is far and away the obvious frontrunner.

    2. The Mandalorian, while not coming close to winning, is pretty much locked for this spot.

    3. Lovecraft Country is unstable in a lot of other places, but it feels safer here than in any acting category. People may not like it that much, but they seem to respect it. The Emmys are also way friendlier to out-there genre content than the other big voting bodies, so I think it’ll perform better here than it has been.

    4. Opposite of Lovecraft. People don’t really respect Bridgerton, but they sure as hell like it, and that’s all you’re going to need this year so it’s probably here. And if there’s ever been a time where people are embracing trashy TV as entertainment, it’s now.

    5. In Treatment is a show the Emmys already like, but it’ll still feel new and fresh this year, and it’ll have the extra excitement of being a distinctly COVID show, without actually having to be About COVID.

    6. The Handmaid’s Tale (if they make the deadline) is on life support with the Emmys, but it’s probably sliding in one more time because what the hell else is happening, and the techs still seem to like it.

    7. This Is Us is on its last prayer, but like THT, the barrenness of the year will likely save it, even if it only keeps Brown and some guests otherwise. It really is in danger, though.

    8. This last spot is where it starts to get murky. Right now, though, I’m betting on Loki. He’s a very very popular character, the release date is perfect, the techs will probably be eating it up, and it’ll likely just be a lot of fun, which is what people want right now.

    9. Almost put The Mosquito Coast in that last slot, but if Apple couldn’t get The Morning Show into Series, I’m not sure this will. Theroux’s probably happening, though, and I think this and Loki will be duking it out.

    10. I think The Boys is a bit of a pipe dream, and Loki will probably steal WandaVision’s superhero hype scraps when it premieres, but the WGA nom makes me want to keep this at least in the general picture. It doesn’t have a ton of fans, but the fans it does have are very passionate.

    11. Netflix has been trying to get their own Game of Thrones for years and nothing’s really landed, but Shadow and Bone could be the one. Don’t think it’s likely to, but… I guess it COULD. Biggest hurdle will be convincing people that it has appeal above its original Young Adult audience.

    12. Unless The Flight Attendant is forced to switch (which I still think is a very close possibility), I Hate Suzie will probably be HBO Max’s biggest dramatic contender. Don’t think it WILL happen, but I want it to, and stranger things have happened. Could be a writer-backed nominee.

    13. Industry is almost definitely not happening but I wanted this list to be an even thirteen, so. Heard it’s good, though!

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    Put together a list of contenders, does this look accurate? (Not all of these are real contenders but there are so few viable ones that I’m not really counting much out lol) ALREADY PREMIERED: The Boys (Prime Video) Bridgerton (Netflix) The Chi (Showtime) The Crown (Netflix) For All Mankind (Apple TV+) The Good Doctor (NBC) His Dark Materials (HBO) I Hate Suzie (HBO Max) Industry (HBO) Lovecraft Country (HBO) The Mandalorian (Disney+) Perry Mason (HBO) P-Valley (Starz) Ratched (Netflix) Star Trek: Discovery (Paramount+) This Is Us (NBC) The Twilight Zone (Paramount+) The Umbrella Academy (Netflix) Yellowstone (Paramount) CONFIRMED TO PREMIERE: The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+) Godfather of Harlem (Epix) In Treatment (HBO) Loki (Disney+) The Mosquito Coast (Apple TV+) The Nevers (HBO) Shadow and Bone (Netflix) Tell Me Your Secrets (Prime Video) MAYBE MAKING IT: The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) Succession (HBO) The Wheel of Time (Prime Video)

    There is also The Alienist (TNT), Away (Netflix), Raised by Wolves (HBO Max), The Right Stuff (Disney+), Servant (Apple TV+), Snowpiercer (TNT), The Spanish Princess (Starz), We Are Who We Are (HBO, assuming that will be Drama instead of Limited Series). We also are not sure at the moment if Falcon and the Winter Soldier will be Drama or Limited.

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    wolfali
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    I more or less agree with your ranking! Although I am slightly more sceptical about This is Us because of how hard it is to get back into Series after getting dropped.

    Also I agree with your <i>I Hate Suzie </i>placement. I don’t think it will happen either but the situation seems perfect for it to grab a writing nomination. Apart from The CrownThe Mandalorian and The Boys there aren’t any other shows that seem to have buzz with the writers branch. I Hate Suzie seems to have attracted some attention with members of the writers branch online (see Lena Dunham, Chelsea Perreti and Natasha Rothwell tweeting about it online). It also helps that it will likely get a boost in buzz from BAFTA nominations. Although it won’t be enough to help Piper unfortunately (who should be winning!)

    I noticed you haven’t mentioned The Wheel of Time but if that makes it in on time I think it could be a big contender or at least that Rosamund Pike can snag a Golden Globe nomination (or even win) for it.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    contender. Don’t think it WILL happen, but I want it to, and stranger things have happened.

    Literally,

    STE20

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    Victor
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    Literally,

    STE20

    This was such a shocker
    Should’ve known tho

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    wolfali
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    I’m glad I had Stranger Things in with 95/1 odds last year (would have been 100 if I didn’t briefly drop it for BLL at one point for like a week lol):

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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