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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 5)

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    wolfali
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    #1204171428

    We’re certainly getting 8 nominees in supporting this year. Have you guys seen how many people Bridgerton and The Crown have submitted in supporting actress?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Heptapod
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    #1204171721

    I really doubt The Crown gets four supporting actress performances. Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked if it was only two. Last year wasn’t as open as this year, but the huge overestimations for Maisel and Ozark in 2020 make me wary of predicting too many names from a program, even one they really like. Doherty has a solidly sized part and her performance is good (though I’m not sure where this whole “fan favorite” tag is coming from), but the fact that her role won’t be memorable to non-superfans will hurt her. I agree that the Oscars will help boost Fennell, but even then, she’s really not doing much of anything in this show.

    Yes, Succession got three in last time, but Culkin and Macfadyen both have very big roles and their own storylines in a way Doherty and Fennell didn’t, and Braun was THE fan favorite character of the show. It’s reminding me a lot of the arguments for Smith-Cameron, which ended up being hollow.

    It’s making more and more sense to me every day that Anderson and Carter are The Crown’s only representatives here.

    Emmys FYC: Maya Erskine in PEN15, Paapa Essiedu in I May Destroy You, Keeley Hawes in It's a Sin, Carl Lumbly in TFATWS, Cristin Milioti in Made for Love, Elizabeth Olsen in WandaVision, Billie Piper in I Hate Suzie, Hailee Steinfeld in Dickinson, William Zabka in Cobra Kai

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    wolfali
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    #1204172614

    Doherty very much is comparable to Nicolas Braun. She didn’t get as much to do as him on their second seasons (their prominence in their first seasons was more or less equivalent though and they were both helped by voters catching up on both their seasons in one watch) but both play the quirky fan favourite character and both are part of some of the most memorable and buzzed about scenes of their show’s. Look at “boar on the floor” and “ibble dibble”. Cousin Greg’s comical interactions with his grandfather in “Dundee” and Erin Doherty’s piece of dramatic acting in her interactions with Olivia Colman in “Favourites”. Just like with Braun last year, we’ve seen many A listers also tag and praise Doherty in their reviews of The Crown season 4.

    Fennell is someone I wouldn’t usually predict (she’s comparable to J. Smith-Cameron in that sense) but she’s someone who will likely win an Oscar playing an immediately recognisable character and one who had greater prominence in this season’s plot. I know the mechanics of this category are different but she kind of reminds me of how Taika Waititi got in for voice-over due to the after glow he had from his win for Jojo Rabbit. You’ll scarcely find someone who knew that Waititi was on The Mandalorian or that Fennell was on The Crown before Jojo Rabbit and Promising Young Woman but you can bet that Emmy voters will know who they are and who they played when they see the win the ballot.

    Neither Doherty or Fennell are locked but it seems to be habitual that when your show is a frontrunner for Series that it’s easier as an actor to coattail on the virtue that you were in the show. What Ozark and Maisel‘s hauls told us that year was that Succession and Schitt’s Creek were winning. Not only is The Crown at this stage much stronger than Succession but the field is also much weaker. Last year supporting actress was the most competitive field and there was such strong buzz for individual performances from shows that didn’t go anywhere else like Big Little Lies. And in the general acting field we saw how the branch took to something like The Morning Show. This year whilst there is an equivalent to The Morning Show that it looks like the branch might take towards in Bridgerton, there aren’t many strong buzzy performances that have gained traction from shows that otherwise aren’t going anywhere else. Samira Wiley will get in regardless but only Wunmi Mosaku and Cynthia Nixon seem to have anything close to individual traction.

    Of course with Pose and The Handmaid’s Tale still to air the realms of possibility are there for the situation with the actors could change but not only do I think it’s plausible for either or both of Doherty and Fennell to make it in but I would be surprised if at least one of them didn’t coattail. It feels like The Crown is the only show that was a continuing that everyone watched and I do think the show is far likelier to get three supporting actresses in than The Handmaid’s Tale is.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Chloe Sevigny stan <3
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    #1204172645

    If only Fennell was in one less episode and then she’d be a perfect winner in guest!!

    Emmy FYC!!: Chloe Sevigny (We Are Who We Are), MJ Rodriguez (Pose), Billy Porter (Pose), Emma Corrin (The Crown), Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Maya Erskine (Pen15), Anna Konkle (Pen15), Naomi Ackie (Master of None), Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad), Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)

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    Allan Veríssimo
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    #1204172677

    The Right Stuff canceled.

    FYC Emmys: Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist: Comedy Series, Comedy Actress (Jane Levy); Cobra Kai: Comedy Series; Dickinson: Comedy Actress (Hailee Steinfeld); The Good Doctor: Drama Actor (Freddie Highmore), Drama Supporting Actress (Paige Spara); His Dark Materials: Drama Supporting Actress (Ruth Wilson); Lovecraft Country: Drama Supporting Actress (Jamie Chung); WandaVision: Limited Series, Actress (Elizabeth Olsen), Actor (Paul Bettany), Supporting Actress (Kathryn Hahn).

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    mafro987
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    #1204172682

    If only Fennell was in one less episode and then she’d be a perfect winner in guest!!

    Okonedo >>>

    I feel like Fennell didn’t do anything to even warrant a guest nomination, but that’s just me.

    On the supporting actress debate, I do think the field is barren enough for Doherty and Fennell to get in. Having said that, they can’t be compared to the Succession supporting nominees – all of whom were playing far more prominent characters. And I don’t think Doherty is a ‘fan-favourite’ in the same sense that Braun obviously is. Maybe ‘scene-stealer’ is a better phrase to use.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best International Feature: Instinct (The Netherlands)
    Best Actress: Carice van Houten (Instinct)

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    wolfali
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    #1204172706

    Looks like Lupin is indeed eligible for the Emmys and Netflix have submitted in Drama.

    It doesn’t look like a big priority for them though.

    https://series.netflixawards.com/drama-series

    Okonedo >>>

    I’m glad Sophie Okonedo is finally getting the recognition she deserves. She was excellent in Criminal Justice and Undercover. For someone who is an Academy Award nominee she’s severely overlooked for roles.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Chloe Sevigny stan <3
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    #1204172712

    Okonedo >>> I feel like Fennell didn’t do anything to even warrant a guest nomination, but that’s just me. On the supporting actress debate, I do think the field is barren enough for Doherty and Fennell to get in. Having said that, they can’t be compared to the Succession supporting nominees – all of whom were playing far more prominent characters. And I don’t think Doherty is a ‘fan-favourite’ in the same sense that Braun obviously is. Maybe ‘scene-stealer’ is a better phrase to use.

    I totally know what you mean, and Okonedo was great and I hope she won’t be forgotten about, but one of my favourite scenes from last season was the lunch scene between Diana and Camilla. I just thought Fennell was absolutely pitch perfect and a great scene stealer throughout as a guest actress – not a supporting actress.

    Emmy FYC!!: Chloe Sevigny (We Are Who We Are), MJ Rodriguez (Pose), Billy Porter (Pose), Emma Corrin (The Crown), Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Maya Erskine (Pen15), Anna Konkle (Pen15), Naomi Ackie (Master of None), Thuso Mbedu (The Underground Railroad), Kate Winslet (Mare of Easttown), Michaela Coel (I May Destroy You)

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    wolfali
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    #1204172724

    all of whom were playing far more prominent characters.

    The comparison is close enough though. As I mentioned in my post Doherty isn’t as prominent as Braun is in their second seasons but of course Helena Bonham Carter isn’t as prominent in this season of The  Crown as either Kieran Culkin or Matthew MacFadyen were in season 2 of Succession because the writing of The Crown is more episodic character based drama. Whilst Succession of course has a strong ensemble with deserving performances, there are multiple character arcs per episode which allows for the performers to have more prominence across the season.

    It’s not a verbatim comparison and Braun is more of a fan favourite than Doherty is but both are very similar in terms of the fact that they’re both rising stars portraying the intentionally “sidelined” quirky memorable character who provides a chunk of comic relief to their shows (of course Doherty also has some minor pieces of dramatic acting too). Perhaps scene-stealer as you pointed is a more applicable phrase for Doherty but this was more what I was trying to get at with the comparison.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204172729

    The Right Stuff canceled.

    Wasn’t it only a miniseries?

    Dear Emmys Voters

    Television has never been better and it’s a pandemic year.

    Be bold, not boring.

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    David Buchanan
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    #1204172731

    Not that it had much of a chance, but I’m starting to suspect that Evil won’t be back in time. It’s April and CBS has yet to announce its release date.

    Robert King tweeted that they’ve completed shooting 8 of the 13 episodes. Not sure where they are in post, so it’s really borderline right now if they could air enough episodes in time. It would make sense for CBS to try to capitalize on the opportunity, though the Drama field is not nearly as weak as Comedy.

    Formerly known as PianoMann.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204172743

    Depending on how much they’ve completed, Evil could just always air the 2nd season in a Part A and Part B.

    Dear Emmys Voters

    Television has never been better and it’s a pandemic year.

    Be bold, not boring.

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    wolfali
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    #1204172751

    Can we add Omar Sy?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    JV
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    #1204172773

    If Lupin was submitted as Comedy I’m sure he could happen, but in Drama… The show was a big hit though and a nomination wouldn’t surprise me at all. He’s a pretty respected actor in Europe, with two Cesar nominations (and one win).

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204172831

    Netflix could do worse than to give Lupin/Sy a push, mentioned this before in Limited thread, but it’s already an international produced popular word-of-mouth hit (similar to Normal People, Unorthodox, Bodyguard). If they play their cards right it could be a Bodyguard at worst (Series, Directing, potentially Actot)

    It’s already one of Netflix’s most popular new shows from this cycle (going off what’s on their FYC, based on IMDB stats)

    # of Audience Reviews

    • The Queen’s Gambit (289,729)
    • Bly Manor (72,067)
    • Bridgerton (71,401)
    • Lupin (55,745)
    • Emily in Paris (48,319)
    • Ratched (40,479)
    • Cursed (23,954)
    • Firefly Lane (13,045)
    • The Irregulars (5,402)

    Audience Rating

    • The Queen’s Gambit (8.6)
    • Lupin (7.6)
    • Firefly Lane (7.5)
    • Bly Manor (7.4)
    • Bridgerton (7.3)
    • Ratched (7.3)
    • Emily in Paris (7.0)
    • Cursed (5.8)
    • The Irregulars (5.5)

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Billie Piper in “I Hate Suzie” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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