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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 6)

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204246759

    I bring with you the autumn awards of GG, CC, Guilds who are participating this Emmy season…

     

    Best Dramaseries

    1. The Crown (Netflix) GG, CC, PGA

    2. The Mandalorian (Disney+) GG, CC, PGA

    3. Lovecraft Country (HBO) GG, CC

    4. Bridgerton (Netflix) PGA

    5. This Is Us (NBC) CC

    6. Perry Mason (HBO) CC

    7. Ratched (Netflix) GG

     

    Best Drama Actor

    1. Josh O’Connor – The Crown (Netflix) GG, CC, SAG

    2. Matthew Rhys – Perry Mason (HBO) GG, CC
    3. Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (NBC) CC, SAG

    4. Rege-Jean Page – Bridgerton (Netflix) SAG

    5. Jonathan Majors – Lovecraft Country (HBO) CC

     

    Best Drama Actress

    1. Emma Corrin – The Crown (Netflix) GG, CC, SAG

    2. Olivia Colman – The Crown (Netflix) GG, CC, SAG

    3. Jurnee Smollett – Lovecraft Country (HBO) CC

    4. Sarah Paulson – Ratched (Netflix) GG

     

    Best Drama Supporting Actor

    1. Michael K. Williams – Lovecraft Country (HBO) CC

    2. Tobias Menzies – The Crown (Netflix) CC

    3. John Lithgow – Perry Mason (HBO) CC

    4. Justin Hartley – This Is Us (NBC) CC

     

    Best Supporting Actress

    1. Gillian Anderson – The Crown (Netflix) GG, CC, SAG

    2. Helena Bonham Carter – The Crown (Netflix) GG, CC

    3. Wunmi Mosaku – Lovecraft Country (HBO) CC

    4. Cynthia Nixon – Ratched (Netflix) GG

     

    Best Directing

    1. The Mandalorian – The Marshall (Disney+) DGA

    2. Bridgerton – Diamond of the First Water (Netflix) DGA

     

    Best Writing

    1. The Crown (Netflix) WGA

    2. The Mandalorian (Disney+) WGA

    3. The Boys (Prime Video) WGA

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    mateil
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    #1204247310

    Can anyone add Amanda Brugel for The Handmaid’s Tale in the prediction center? I have a feeling she might surprise the same way that Samira Wiley did last year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247366

    What I’m very interested to see is who The Hollywood Reporter gets for their roundtables this year. Last year Zendaya attended when it was assumed she was a non-factor.

    My guesses on who they’ll get (purely baseless) are:

    Drama Actress:

    – Gillian Anderson
    – Michaela Coel
    – Emma Corrin
    – Jurnee Smollett
    – Anya Taylor-Joy
    – Kate Winslet

    Drama Actor:

    – Paul Bettany
    – Hugh Grant
    – Ewan McGregor
    – Josh O’Connor
    – Billy Porter
    – Matthew Rhys

    I also wonder who they’ll get for the drama show runner award because it feels like almost every drama series and limited series this year only has one writer credited to each (Michaela Coel, Scott Frank, David E. Kelley, Brad Ingelsby, Barry Jenkins, Russell T. Davies) lol.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1204247413

    The season 4 first episode’s viewership bests the first weekend views of Hulu movies United States vs. Billie Holiday (287K U.S. Samba households) and Happiest Season (416,6K U.S. Samba households).

    Whew, Moss>>Globe winner Day & movie star Stewart.

    Ready for as many actress noms for the show as S2.

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    methaddiction
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    Aug 1st, 2017
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    #1204247426

    They’re doing Bledel and Strahovski dirty right now with the lack of material.

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    Victor
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    #1204247432

    They’re doing Bledel and Strahovski dirty right now with the lack of material.

    They doing Strahovski dirty with her material
    What the fuck is that storyline for Serena, out of nowhere, the writers of this show are something

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204247435

    What I’m very interested to see is who The Hollywood Reporter gets for their roundtables this year. Last year Zendaya attended when it was assumed she was a non-factor.

    They usually go for big names whenever they can (and when those fail, fringe contenders, see 2017 Comedy Actress)

    Emmys FYC | Alan Tudyk in “Resident Alien” | Ego Nwodim in “Saturday Night Live” | Kaley Cuoco in “Harley Quinn” | “Dickinson” | “P-Valley” | “Pose” | “Superstore”

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    Vice Wicked
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    #1204247497

    As she should!

    It’s what she deserves after being so cruelly robbed for American Gods, The Fall, Great Expectations, Hannibal, Sex Education

    Guuurl… LOUDER!!!!! for the Academy members at the back.

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    wolfali
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    #1204247744

    The unprecedented thing is Matthew Rhys starting off as an early frontrunner to a potential snub as voting season is about to begin.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Luca
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204247785

    They’re doing Bledel and Strahovski dirty right now with the lack of material.

    Strahovski’s material is supposedly coming and don’t forget that this being filmed in a pandemic has effects, Alexis Bledel screen time probably being one of them.

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    walkinuniverse
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    #1204248364

    My bad. I forgot he won the Globe though one can also argue he got boosted by the hype on Bombshell.

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    wolfali
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    #1204248520

    Starting to feel somewhat content with my top 7 in series. I just can’t figure out what’s getting that last slot. I wonder if it will go to something like This is Us or we’ll have a surprise.

    I’m very worried about Pose. Porter is in and I have a gut feeling (and a hope-diction) when it comes to Rodriguez but I’ve seen very little buzz for this season outside Janet Mock’s comments at the premiere. That being said it’s a weak field so anything can happen but I’m not as confident as I was initially.

    Snowfall has risen significantly in the GD odds. Is there some reason to consider it that I’m missing?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    #1204248545

    I’m also struggling with the 8th spot
    Crown – Mandalorian – Bridgerton – Handmaid’s Tale – Pose – Lovecraft (not in that order) feels quite okay, and I’m going with The Boys on 7 because of writers support alone.

    That 8th is just urgh, it could be anything

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" | Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird", THE GOOD LORD BIRD in ALL CATEGORIES | Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" | Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" | MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" | Jane Levy for "Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist"

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    wolfali
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    #1204248849

    The CrownThe Mandalorian and Bridgerton feel like the only locks in Drama Series. I do think Lovecraft Country and The Handmaid’s Tale will probably make it into series. The only difference between the aforementioned three locks and those two is that they are significantly weaker and might not necessarily be in 4th and 5th place. But for me they do feel “safe-ish” to predict because the former did do fairly well with the below the line guilds (even if it flopped with PGA, DGA and WGA) and the latter got 10 nominations in a competitive field last year. I guess the closest comparison to their cases would be This is Us two years ago.

    After that is when it really becomes hazy. I’ve gone with The Boys in slot no.6 because both last year when What We Do in the Shadows slipped into Comedy Series and the year before when Bodyguard slipped into Drama tells me to never underestimate the writers branch. The Boys is one of only three seasons of show eligible this year to have been nominated for WGA. I don’t think it will be getting any acting nominations but I think it could get writing + series noms with how much acclaim it has, the support the WGA nomination theoretically gives it, the emptiness of the field and the fact Amazon is running a big campaign for it.

    After that who the f*** knows. Is the field really weak enough for This is Us to make it back in? I do think Milo Ventimiglia, Chris Sullivan (and yes even Mandy Moore) can slip back in but when was the last time a show that almost solely relied on its acting support made it back into series after being dropped in ensemble at SAG? This is a similar qualm I have with Black-ishThe Good Wife couldn’t even make it back into drama series with one of the most acclaimed and buzziest seasons of the year (one it won a significant Emmy for) after it was dropped at SAG. Same with Homeland. The field is weak but it was no weaker (at SAG) than the comedy one and yet the show couldn’t make it into ensemble over Better Call Saul and something like Curb Your Enthusiasm got into comedy ensemble.

    I think Pose is ahead of it and I do think it was probably 9th or 10th last year. What helps Pose is that it’s the main priority of Emmy juggernaut FX this season and it doesn’t have to solely rely on support from the actors branch. What doesn’t is that it hardly feels like anyone both industry wise and audience wise (apart from Dan Levy) has noticed the show has returned and like I said it feels like Janet Mock’s controversy attracted more buzz than it. That being said it could be in a Good Place like situation where voters are behind by a season due to watching it as a box set on Netflix rather than anything else so it could just get in on goodwill and familiarity alone. If it gets in and does well I do think it has a strong chance of being top 5. I have it 9th because I realised that my want for this show to do well might be blinding my predictions.

    I went with The Falcon and the Winter Soldier in 7th because Disney are campaigning for it, they own half of entertainment in Hollywood at this point and it could get in on the support it has from the tech branches. But then again its finale was kind of panned?

    In Treatment has always been in my predictions (almost by default) but a combination of both the late release and the fact that HBO aren’t giving it a screening event makes me hesitant. Sure it’s a recognisable property but so is Perry Mason (which also isn’t getting a screening event). So it really feels like it has to get in either with passion from the actors branch (who will probably be the most likely to gravitate towards it) or through name-checks. A similar thing with Perry Mason. I do think Antony Ramos and John Benjamin Hickey should easily get in because that field is so WEAK but if it underwhelms in passion or buzz it wouldn’t surprise me if Aduba misses like Wever last year.

    What else is there to say about the rest? P-Valley is on a streaming service hardly anyone uses. We Are Who We Are literally got mentioned on 6 critics lists last year. What even is Godfather of HarlemRatched tanked at the guilds and is no Hollywood (awards wise because it’s better than Hollywood was). The Mosquito Coast is dead (at least in series) and does anyone even realise it’s out yet? Feels like the comedy equivalent of Moonbase 8. If Industry couldn’t get a single BAFTA nomination, I doubt it’s going to get an Emmy nomination. Big Sky is a network hit but it’s also mixed reviewed.

    I Hate Suzie and For All Mankind seem to feel like they have some sort of recency for some reason? The latter because it seems to have had a finale that’s attracted a lot of critical buzz and the former did do well at the BAFTAs. The problem is that neither of their streamers seem to care about these shows at all (I Hate Suzie isn’t even on HBO Max’s FYC site!) The latter also feels more like it has critical buzz than industry buzz and whilst the former does seem to have industry buzz, it seems very niche. For them to get into series their following would have to be very passionate and for voters not to take to other shows. I think their chances are likelier in writing and/or the acting categories (Actress for I Hate Suzie and S. Actor for For All Mankind). IHS does remind me a bit too much of Gentleman Jack though and FAM reminds me of Mindhunter for some reason.

    Snowpiercer and Raised by Wolves do have potential for lots of tech support and the former does seem to have some buzz (being on Netflix also can’t hurt) but they also feel too weird for voters? I guess Bong Joon-Ho and Ridley Scott’s names as producers might not hurt though.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Luca
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    #1204248853

    I don’t think it’s happening, but The Alienist: Angel of Darkness deserves to be nominated, especially in such a thinned-out field. S2 was better than S1 IMO, and the latter snagged seven noms, including limited series. I hope TNT mounts a huge campaign like last time.

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