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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 6)

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    wolfali
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    #1204253895

    Actress really is a mess. Aduba is an actors branch favourite and Moss is in a show they’re familiar with but in a year like this why are they going to gravitate to shows that dark? Moss feels so uncertain because on the one hand she could be very easily another Viola Davis/Tracee Ellis Ross and make it back in after being dropped the previous year. But at the same time she could end up like Larry David and not get in even in a weak year. Jurnee Smollett feels like she has no passion. Sarah Paulson is another actors branch favourite and she has a baity role but I feel like very few people really care about her performance (I do think she is worthy of a nomination personally). Cynthia Nixon and Sophie Okonedo feel like they have more going for them in their categories. Mandy Moore is a big mystery. On the one hand she could easily return but on the other This is Us couldn’t even break in at SAG in ensemble with the weak competition and it’s almost impossible to tell anything from its Emmy performance. I’m still predicting Ventimiglia to return though. Billie Piper gives the performance with the most passion outside of Corrin and Rodriguez and we do know people in the industry are watching it (we’ve seen a range of performers from George Clooney to Natasha Rothwell rave about the show so it could be one of those shows that’s disproportionately popular within the industry). But then again HBO Max haven’t even bothered to put the show on its FYC site which makes me question if they will even submit it.

    Honestly right now I feel quite content keeping Phoebe Dynevor and MJ Rodriguez in 3rd and 4th place.

    Dynevor has been campaigning hard and whilst I’ve been trashing her performance and have been sceptical of her having enough passion to make the cut, I do think she has stronger chances than we think. She’s less of a breakout than Rege-Jean Page but the first thing she booked was the lead role in a film with Matthew Goode. She’s one of the bigger stars of the show on social media. But most importantly she’s in a show that is arguably top 3 in series, one that almost everyone and their mother watched and one that got 2 SAG nominations (a rarity for a first season show). If the show plays well with the actors branch I think she can easily slip in.

    MJ is more of a hope-diction but she feels somewhat visible right now? Even though Pose itself doesn’t feel so visible. Maybe it’s her casting in that new Apple show. She seems to be a performer in a similar situation to Mandy Moore in the sense that she’s always lurking somewhere in the top 15 and with a weaker field and there not being much passion taken for “newer contenders” she slips in. I think the narrative around the historic nature of a potential nomination for her and her having a “last chance narrative” amalgamated with the campaigning she has been doing helps her chances and whilst Porter seems to be gaining a lot of heat and is probably ahead at TCA, it wouldn’t surprise me if she slipped in and over him.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    ratednext
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    #1204254280

    Has there been any update on a second season for Lovecraft Country?  And if not, can it still be moved to limited series?

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    Victor
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    #1204254325

    Has there been any update on a second season for Lovecraft Country? And if not, can it still be moved to limited series?

    Nope and i think it’s too late for that and i doubt HBO would even want since they already have multiple Limited series and Lovecraft Country seems safe for a nomination here.

    FYC Emmys: Get MJ Rodriguez that deserved WIN! And some votes for Elizabeth Olsen, Tobias Menzies and Matthew Rhys will be highly tasteful as well

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    wolfali
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    #1204254385

    HBO had submitted Lovecraft for a few of the guilds in limited so I wondered if it was plausible for them to move it at the Emmys like they did with Watchmen and Netflix did with The Haunting of Hill House. But they’re options are really dire in drama this year considering they don’t really have any show that inspires any passion and has wide visibility. Whilst they have I May Destroy YouMare of EasttownIt’s a Sin aand The Undoing in limited and they appear to be campaigning all four.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204254410

    Entry deadline was today actually, but campaigning is well underway.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204254427

    HBO would have no benefit putting Lovecraft in limited, just forgetting their already stacked slate in limited.

    Have we forgotten what the rest of thei drama contenders are? They kinda-flopped (Perry Mason, We Are Who We Are); are too small (Industry, I Hate Suzie); plagued with scandal (The Nevers), might premiere too late to break out (In Treatment) or are tech driven players at best (His Dark Materials & Raised by Wolves)

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    wolfali
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    #1204254599

    I really struggle to see how Ann Dowd and/or Yvonne Strahovski make it back in.

    O-T Fagbenle on the other hand I think is very possible. Granted he didn’t make it in like she did for the first two seasons but he reminds me a bit of Samira Wiley last year for some reason? With his increased profile and the weaker field in supporting actor I think he’s definitely in the hunt if Bailey/Esposito end up missing à la Pelphrey/Lynch or if the actors don’t take so well to In Treatment or The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Hickey/Bruhl miss.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Luca
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    #1204254611

    I struggle to understand how Fagbenle could be compared to Wiley. It makes… no sense? Please elaborate.

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    wolfali
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    #1204254640

    I struggle to understand how Fagbenle could be compared to Wiley. It makes… no sense? Please elaborate.

    As I said in my post they’re not really that comparable (and I’m largely considering Fagbenle due to factors that weren’t applicable to Wiley) but I’m getting a similar feeling about him to the one I had with Wiley before the noms (I can’t believe I didn’t act upon it and slot her in). Here’s why.

    I guess they are comparable in a sense as you could argue there is an element of sympathy you feel as a viewer of The Handmaid’s Tale to both characters. Both Moira and Luke are characters very much grounded in reality. In this currently grim climate both of their characters are more relatable to someone viewing The Handmaid’s Tale than say Aunt Lydia or Serena or Fred (especially when the real life equivalents of those characters are sitting on the supreme court). Now granted Wiley made it in for the first two seasons and one could argue that her nomination for the third was a name-check due to her limited screen time. I do understand that argument because The Handmaid’s Tale didn’t do particularly well last year and Emmy voters appear to have moved on from it but it wasn’t as if Wiley had no material whatsoever. She just had a more limited role than Ann Dowd and Yvonne Strahovski. O-T Fagbenle did miss the nomination for the first season but the show was a late-breaker. He missed for the second (in supporting) and third (in guest) in competitive fields, the former of which he essentially had a recurring role in.

    He won’t bump Bradley Whitford out like Wiley did with Dowd and Strahovski but just like Wiley he plays a character whose arc on the show elicits a lot of empathy for the character. It could be a situation where he’s just been so unlucky thus far in getting a nomination due to competing in disproportionately competitive fields but he has enough support to slip in this once with a weaker field.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    JV
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    #1204254650

    I’m worried about Esposito too. I don’t know if actors care about The Mandalorian that much.
    If he was in one less episode of the Season 2 of The Boys then he would be eligible as guest and could win his due there.

    I don’t buy Bruhl and Wyatt Russell either for the same reason. Bruhl’s character wasn’t well handled in the show, although I wouldn’t complain if he got nominated because he should be an Oscar and Emmy nominee by now, but he keeps getting snubbed.

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    Luca
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    #1204254652

    IMO Fagbenle would be more comparable with Chris Sullivan. A regular since season 1 who does not get his due until later in the show’s run, when the category is wide open.

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    wolfali
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    #1204254659

    IMO Fagbenle would be more comparable with Chris Sullivan. A regular since season 1 who does not get his due until later in the show’s run, when the category is wide open.

    Yeah that comparison of course fits. As does Mandy Moore making it in for the same.

    But what I meant by the comparison with Wiley was more that with how grim the world looks, both of their characters feel like they are characters that receive a lot of empathy from viewers and fans of the show. And whilst that hasn’t been the sole reason for performers getting nominations/wins as of late, I do think it has played an effect in multiple cases. Hence why I think Fagbenle would probably have been ahead of Fiennes if he had stayed in supporting. Or why I think he has a greater chance of making it in than Dowd and Strahovski do in their categories.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Luca
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    #1204254662

    Yeah, I don’t really see that. These voters just vote for whom or whose performance they liked most. I don’t even know if they’re up to date on this show. I really have no idea how many noms it’ll get. It getting shut out would surprise me as little as it blowing up.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204254664

    Speaking of Chris Sullivan, I’m currently catching up on This Is Us and I don’t really get the criticism for the season so far. Maybe weekly it was meh but as a binge I believe the quality is pretty much the same and better than s3 with the whole vietnam arc. Binging it actually makes me want to predict it in Series because it’s such a comfort show. And it really is Chrissy Metz best season since the first one. There is an episode early on in which she confronts her abuser where she does a pretty good job.

    Also the actress who portrays Randall’s mother in her own dedicated flashback episode kinda serves surprise guest nominee if they still pay attention to the show (and we know it does well in guest categories). Sterling K. Brown was also outstanding on that episode and is win worthy.

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    Luca
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    #1204254678

    Sterling, Justin and Chrissy are owning this season!

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