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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 8)

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    wolfali
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    #1204300455

    Perhaps I’m just being pessimistic but with Piper gone (and the very small chance she had at getting a Primetime nomination although at least she might have a chance at actually winning the international Emmy), I feel like the Actress category is now very predictable.

    Colman and Corrin are and always have been the only locks. Then after that I think we’re bound to see at least one (if not both) of Moss and Moore turn up à la Ellis Ross last year in comedy/Davis and Moore the previous year in drama. Then I think the last two/three slots will probably be between Rodriguez, the leads from the SAG ensemble nominees (Dynevor/Smollett) and a perennial favourite (Aduba/Paulson).

    How I’d rank them in likelihood of nomination:

    1. Emma Corrin, The Crown
    2. Olivia Colman, The Crown
    3. Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
    4. Mandy Moore, This is Us
    5. MJ Rodriguez, Pose
    6. Uzo Aduba, In Treatment

    7. Sarah Paulson, Ratched
    8. Phoebe Dynevor, Bridgerton
    9. Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country
    10. Idk? Aya Cash, The Boys?

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Luca
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    #1204300472

    1. Emma Corrin, The Crown 2. Olivia Colman, The Crown 3. Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale 4. Mandy Moore, This is Us 5. MJ Rodriguez, Pose 6. Uzo Aduba, In Treatment

    I have the same six — not in that order, but I have those same six.

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    Duelle
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    #1204300484

    I have the same six — not in that order, but I have those same six.

    I have the same six, but I could truly see any combination of contenders from 4-10 make it in and I wouldn’t be shocked. It’s hard to get a read on the Drama categories this year, because there’s really not a precedent for a year with so few previous contenders returning and so much potential for old favorites to be revived

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204300495

    I have the same six, but I could truly see any combination of contenders from 4-10 make it in and I wouldn’t be shocked. It’s hard to get a read on the Drama categories this year, because there’s really not a precedent for a year with so few previous contenders returning and so much potential for old favorites to be revived

    2019 was like that to an extent. It just wasn’t as obvious since Game of Thrones ended up getting triple and quadruple nominations everywhere.

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    wolfali
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    #1204300503

    I am very tempted to slot Aduba out for Paulson.

    I just feel like no one is watching <i>In Treatment </i>(of course it doesn’t necessarily need to be an audience hit for Aduba to get nominated) whilst Ratched has a lot of visibility (and likewise Netflix are actually campaigning hard for it which HBO aren’t for In Treatment). Both Paulson and Aduba do seem to be actor’s branch favourites and I feel like it is easy to assume that because Aduba got in and won for Mrs. America whilst Paulson didn’t get nominated that the former is more of a favourite than the latter. Aduba obviously is an actors branch darling (she does have three Emmys lol) but she also had more visibility than Paulson did last year (i.e. her showcase episode came at the very beginning of the show’s run whilst Paulson’s one was the penultimate episode). This time round it almost feels like the reverse situation with Paulson having more visibility than Aduba (whether it’s with the popularity of her show or through a campaigning perspective).

    That being said what’s stopping me is that I can also see Uzo Aduba be the type of performer who members of the actors branch just rush to watch in anything (a bit like Regina King). But I can also see her ending up like Merritt Wever last year.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204300505

    She is so in darlings

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    wolfali
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    #1204300507

    but I could truly see any combination of contenders from 4-10 make it in

    I feel like we have a clear top 9 (not necessarily in the order they’re in the predictions centre as) and then there’s a massive gap in support between 9th and 10th place.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Duelle
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    #1204300509

    2019 was like that to an extent. It just wasn’t as obvious since Game of Thrones ended up getting triple and quadruple nominations everywhere.

    This is true, and I always forget what predicting 2019 was like with Stranger Things, The Handmaid’s Tale, and The Crown all being ineligible.

    I also think it’s interesting how the Drama Actress field was mostly made up of previously nominated shows, but first-timers dominated the Comedy Actress field with most old favorites from the previous year missing. I guess I’ll expect some sort of mix between the two

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    wolfali
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    #1204300525

    This is true, and I always forget what predicting 2019 was like with Stranger Things, The Handmaid’s Tale, and The Crown all being ineligible.

    I think that was the first time we ever really had a “weaker” field in either of the drama or comedy categories under the plurality voting system. Some assumed that support for Viola Davis and Mandy Moore (who was assumed to be close to a nomination for the second season and was in the incumbent SAG ensemble winner) had waned and the weaker field would allow for a passion pick like Christine Baranski or a performer from a freshman show like Julia Roberts or Suranne Jones would slip in.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Duelle
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    #1204300531

    I am very tempted to slot Aduba out for Paulson. I just feel like no one is watching <i>In Treatment </i>(of course it doesn’t necessarily need to be an audience hit for Aduba to get nominated) whilst Ratched has a lot of visibility (and likewise Netflix are actually campaigning hard for it which HBO aren’t for In Treatment). Both Paulson and Aduba do seem to be actor’s branch favourites and I feel like it is easy to assume that because Aduba got in and won for Mrs. America whilst Paulson didn’t get nominated that the former is more of a favourite than the latter. Aduba obviously is an actors branch darling (she does have three Emmys lol) but she also had more visibility than Paulson did last year (i.e. her showcase episode came at the very beginning of the show’s run whilst Paulson’s one was the penultimate episode). This time round it almost feels like the reverse situation with Paulson having more visibility than Aduba (whether its with the popularity of her show or through a campaigning perspective). That being said what’s stopping me is that I can also see Uzo Aduba be the type of performer who members of the actors branch just rush to watch in anything (a bit like Regina King). But I can also see her ending up like Merritt Wever last year.

    Also completely agree on the Aduba and Wever comparison, I feel like their respective nomination-to-win ratios led us to believe that they were easy namechecks when that’s not necessarily the case and there were specific circumstances surrounding their wins. Aduba was snubbed for Orange is the New Black the year after she won, after all.

    I’m starting to get the feeling that Paulson is the returning veteran vying for the 6th spot as Netflix seems to be actively campaigning Ratched as opposed to Max with In Treatment, but I do wonder if they have the wherewithall to secure 3/6 of the slots here.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204300535

    it is easy to assume that because Aduba got in and won for Mrs. America whilst Paulson didn’t get nominated that the former is more of a favourite than the latter. Aduba obviously is an actors branch darling (she does have three Emmys lol) but she also had more visibility than Paulson did last year

    I feel like we also easily forget that in addition of having her showcase earlier in the season, Aduba played Shirley Chisholm (that’s even getting a biopic and portrayed by Regina King now) while Paulson was the only one in the cast to played an invented character

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    methaddiction
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    #1204300540

    I feel like we also easily forget that in addition of having her showcase earlier in the season, Aduba played Shirley Chisholm (that’s even getting a biopic and portrayed by Regina King now) while Paulson was the only one in the cast to played an invented character

    I thought about this earlier it probably hurt Paulson’s chances.

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204300589

    This is true, and I always forget what predicting 2019 was like with Stranger Things, The Handmaid’s Tale, and The Crown all being ineligible. I also think it’s interesting how the Drama Actress field was mostly made up of previously nominated shows, but first-timers dominated the Comedy Actress field with most old favorites from the previous year missing. I guess I’ll expect some sort of mix between the two

    I’m still baffled by why Stranger Things and Homeland skipped a year when they would have benefited so much from the empty field and when they clearly didn’t have a great chance of winning major Emmys even if they avoided going up against what they thought would be an unbeatable Game of Thrones juggernaut. Homeland probably would have been nominated for series, actress, supporting actor, directing, and writing if it had been competing in 2019. Stranger Things probably could have performed as well as it did at the 2018 Emmys.

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    wolfali
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    #1204300618

    I’m still baffled by why Stranger Things and Homeland skipped a year

    Stranger Things skipped partly for commercial reasons but if I’m not mistaken Homeland faced a delay in production (hence why its final season premiered in 2020 and not 2019).

    I feel like we also easily forget that in addition of having her showcase earlier in the season, Aduba played Shirley Chisholm (that’s even getting a biopic and portrayed by Regina King now) while Paulson was the only one in the cast to played an invented character

    It’s also easy to think she missed SAG because she was too weak. The competition there was just too strong and SAG loves both The Crown and Ozark so much already so it’s not that surprising for both show’s buzziest seasons to date that they’d occupy all 5 slots. If Claire Foy was eligible for the second season of The Crown at SAG after she won the Emmy, she probably would have bumped Robin Wright out there. It’s quite possible that after someone like Helena Bonham Carter that Paulson was next in line there.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Duelle
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    #1204300688

    It’s also easy to think she missed SAG because she was too weak. The competition there was just too strong and SAG loves both The Crown and Ozark so much already so it’s not that surprising for both show’s buzziest seasons to date that they’d occupy all 5 slots. If Claire Foy was eligible for the second season of The Crown at SAG after she won the Emmy, she probably would have bumped Robin Wright out there. It’s quite possible that after someone like Helena Bonham Carter that Paulson was next in line there.

    Also worth noting that every single spot in that category went to a contender from a Netflix show (didn’t realize this before now, LOL.) The extent that Netflix had to push The Crown, Ozark, and even Bridgerton over Ratched at SAG probably hurt Paulson, but even then I could easily see her being 6th or 7th there.

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