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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1204313976

    Yes, you did in your original post, you said she is comparable to the last three winners – Foy, Comer and Zendaya- being young, scene stealer, very applauded, etc. And on the surface, yes, she fits. But when you really compare them, you see that she is very far from Foy, Comer and Zendaya in everything – amount of fans, awards, praise, screen time, undeniability and passion.

    And yes, SAG just preferred Foy to Moss both times, this is undeniable, Moss losing to Foy is inexcusable. So is Corrin´s snub at Bafta, and not because Bafta is an Emmy precursor, but in regards of passion towards her.

    And Sandra Oh will never win an Emmy for Killing Eve. Jodie Comer might win a second time over her though.

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    Luca
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    #1204313982

    I think we just need to see the nominations first. If Handmaid’s underperforms again, there’s just no way Moss wins again. I already think her chances of winning are incredibly slim, so if the show can’t make a comeback when everything is going in its favor, it’ll be a problem. A LOT needs to happen for Moss to stand a chance, even though she should be winning this in a cakewalk. I am still not 100% convinced that she even gets nominated.

    And, yes, if Mj is nominated while Pose as a whole underperforms, that’s going to make her very competitive.

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    wolfali
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    #1204313989

    awards,

    She is definitely very far off from Zendaya on the basis that she actually won two winter awards and was nominated at SAG.

    So is Corrin´s snub at Bafta, and not because Bafta is an Emmy precursor, but in regards of passion towards her.

    Claire Foy lost at BAFTA for The Crown season 2 in spite of winning the Emmy later on over Moss. Maggie Smith was constantly snubbed there in spite of constantly beating Hendricks and Headey. All three of The Night Manager Emmy nominees were snubbed at BAFTA whilst the only key supporting actor who failed to get nominated at the Emmys actually got in.

    Being nominated for a TV BAFTA is significant when it comes to the amount of passion a performance has but it isn’t the be all and end all you’re painting it as. It’s like being nominated or winning at Critics Choice (the only difference being that it’s actually a prestigious award). Jean Smart has two recent Critics Choice wins that have translate into… two recent Emmy losses. Likewise Vanessa Kirby won the BAFTA for The Crown season 2 yet lost the Emmy to Thandie Newton. Bill Camp is being widely considered as a potential winner for The Queen’s Gambit due to his SAG nomination yet he wasn’t nominated at Critics Choice. Does that mean “no one is voting for him”? No and to say such a thing (at least on this basis) is ludicrous. Yahya Abdul-Mateen was snubbed for Watchmen there last year whilst  Tim Blake Nelson was nominated.

    My point is that the fact Corrin and Anderson were snubbed at BAFTA just goes to show how much passion there is for each of those performances nominated over them at BAFTA that it’s easy for a jury to snub two showy performances that have received multiple awards stateside.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    wolfali
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    #1204313992

    And, yes, if Mj is nominated while Pose as a whole underperforms, that’s going to make her very competitive.

    I agree with this. If MJ gets nominated she is going to receive a tonne of buzz due to the nature of her historic nomination and that imo puts her at the very least, in the upset position.

    Colman has little to no passion, Aduba’s show is arguably too under-seen and as you said The Handmaid’s Tale is going to need a massive resurgence for Moss to be competitive again (and by that I am assuming evidence they’ve actually seen this season like a nomination for Grace for example). Even then we just saw Rachel Brosnahan, in a show that is far stronger with actors branch support than The Handmaid’s Tale, lose last year to a beloved lead performance in the series sweeper. Even though Maisel received the most acting nominations in comedy that year and series newcomers like Brown and Sykes were nominated.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1204314001

    Yes, I agree that we have to see nominations first. But I am convinced that Moss will be nominated and that Paulson is not gonna make it. If I am mistaken, I will accept all the jokes and laughs at my expense after that.

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204314006

    Unlike Billy Porter against O’Connor, I don’t see a path for Moss when she was dropped last year, which shows severe signs of weakness. I don’t see how she can go from not being able to get a nomination when the category is strong to winner. However, I do recognize that THT s4 was liked by the majority of viewers (which wasn’t the case for s3) and that a spring airing is probably very beneficial for it. That’s why she will probably returning, the show will probably be higher in Series this year than it was last time and I think a Fagbenle nom might also happen aswell.

    I still believe MJ Rodriguez will be the only one with a chance of upsetting Corrin due to her narrative and possible media push, but we have to wait for the nominations and in the upcoming months to see how strong those two will end up being.

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    Luca
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    #1204314010

    I agree with this. If MJ gets nominated she is going to receive a tonne of buzz due to the nature of her historic nomination and that imo puts her at the very least, in the upset position.

    We gotta be careful thinking narrative is gonna help. We do this every year, and every year we’re proven wrong. That’s why I need to see Mj almost singled out, a la Zendaya, because I think it would show us that there’s particular passion for her work. Going up against Corrin is going to be tough, so whoever is trying to beat her is gonna need a ton of passion. Sure, the narrative won’t hurt, but these voters seem to vote for their favorite performance, not for the narrative.

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1204314022

    Claire Foy lost at BAFTA for The Crown season 2 in spite of winning the Emmy later on over Moss. Maggie Smith was constantly snubbed there in spite of constantly beating Hendricks and Headey. All three of The Night Manager Emmy nominees were snubbed at BAFTA whilst the only key supporting actor who failed to get nominated at the Emmys actually got in.

    I am not talking about wins, I am talking about passion that YOUNG actresses achieve and Corrin lacks. Smith did not needed a passion from Bafta, she had plenty from Emmys and SAG. Anderson also does not need Bafta. Bafta sometimes show disdain towards veterans, but they adore young actresses. Corrin’s snub there is problematic. Foy and Comer had a much bigger universal acclaim and awards success.

    And Zendaya beats her on screen time, on being a real lead, on a fandom passion, on tapes, on versatility, Corrin might be versatile too, we just have not seen her in anything else.

    As a summary, Corrin might win, I might even predict her, I am just pointing out that she have many cons that Foy, Comer and Zendaya did not had, if she wins, it will be much more remarcable and impressive than their wins.

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    wolfali
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    #1204314025

    That’s why I need to see Mj almost singled out, a la Zendaya, because I think it would show us that there’s particular passion for her work. Going up against Corrin is going to be tough, so whomever is trying to beat her is gonna need a ton of passion. Sure, the narrative won’t hurt, but these voters seem to vote for their favorite performance, not for the narrative.

    I agree with this and especially the Zendaya comparison. Going back to my comparison with last year’s comedy race, a lot of people, including myself, thought Insecure might be competitive for one of the two acting races due to the show having strong buzz and a strong narrative yet it lost both of those to performances that inspired lots of passion in the series sweeper.

    The main qualm I have with Rodriguez upsetting though isn’t passion but rather visibility. How many of these voters actually watch Pose in comparison to The Crown? Sure the same argument could be levelled against Maslany and Zendaya but the latter’s show was an audience hit and even more so than those of each of the other performers she was competing against (barring Ozark) whilst it was almost impossible to escape Maslany’s show being mentioned somewhere on the internet whilst the show was on air.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Ivo Stoyanov
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    #1204314035

    Unlike Billy Porter against O’Connor, I don’t see a path for Moss when she was dropped last year, which shows severe signs of weakness. I don’t see how she can go from not being able to get a nomination when the category is strong to winner. However, I do recognize that THT s4 was liked by the majority of viewers (which wasn’t the case for s3) and that a spring airing is probably very beneficial for it. That’s why she will probably returning, the show will probably be higher in Series this year than it was last time and I think a Fagbenle nom might also happen aswell.

    I still believe MJ Rodriguez will be the only one with a chance of upsetting Corrin due to her narrative and possible media push, but we have to wait for the nominations and in the upcoming months to see how strong those two will end up being.

    All your points are excellent, you might be right, Moss might not be able to recover from that snub. However, Margulies won after a snub. And this has nothing to do with the different voting systems, a snub is a snub. So is not impossible.

    We gotta be careful thinking narrative is gonna help. We do this every year, and every year we’re proven wrong. That’s why I need to see Mj almost singled out, a la Zendaya, because I think it would show us that there’s particular passion for her work. Going up against Corrin is going to be tough, so whoever is trying to beat her is gonna need a ton of passion. Sure, the narrative won’t hurt, but these voters seem to vote for their favorite performance, not for the narrative.

    Very good point, Luca. Narratives are not very helpful with Emmys, especially, if voters and the fandoms disagree with them. MJ Rodriguez could have won if the season was build around her, not around Porter. I do not see her competitive for the win.

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    Luca
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    #1204314037

    The main qualm I have with Rodriguez upsetting though isn’t passion but rather visibility. How many of these voters actually watch Pose in comparison to The Crown? Sure the same argument could be levelled against Maslany and Zendaya but the latter’s show was an audience hit and even more so than those of each of the other performers she was competing against (barring Ozark) whilst it was almost impossible to escape Maslany’s show being mentioned somewhere on the internet whilst the show was on air.

    Which is exactly why the nomination is the bigger hurdle for Mj. I still don’t believe Pose is gonna be half as big as people here expect it to be, because I don’t think Emmy voters care about the show. Again, there’s no excuse for it missing writing, directing and acting outside of Porter for its first season. 2019 was also an incredibly weak and empty year for drama, so much so that the writers nominated one of the worst rated episodes of TV ever and an orphaned episode from THT that aired an entire year before voting. It’s also never gotten into key categories below the line, like editing, and couldn’t hold onto its casting and drama series noms last year. I can do better this year since it aired at the right time, but I am doubtful, especially since S3 wasn’t some smash audience- and reception-wise.

    Of course, none of this matters for Mj, whose category will be voted on by the acting branch only. But, as I said above, even they haven’t really been here for the show, which puts her in a precarious position for her nom. That said, I still have her getting nominated, lol.

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    Ryusei
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    #1204314077

    all this discussion only for corrin, rodriguez and moss to lose to phoebe dynevor‘s neck https://youtu.be/_3iJ_mSjUNg

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    Luca
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    #1204314087

    all this discussion only for corrin, rodriguez and moss to lose to phoebe dynevor‘s neck https://youtu.be/_3iJ_mSjUNg

    💀💀 WTF was that?!

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    wolfali
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    #1204314094

    The way even with Piper ineligible I can still find at least 10 more deserving performances than Dynevor’s in this category lol.

    FYC: All things The Crown, Hacks and I May Destroy You (and Hannah Waddingham and Julianne Nicholson whilst you're at it)!!

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    Couverture
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    #1204314175

    You know someone’s arguing just for the sake of it when they claim Zendaya or Comer had more awards success than Corrin. It’s just a waste of time to put energy in a conversation like that.

    It’s also funny seeing GD all of a sudden treat BAFTA as a relevant precursor. Poor Corrin and Anderson I guess lol.

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