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Emmys 2021 Drama Predictions (Part 9)

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204322305

    Is it just me or it truly is really surprising that the critic reviews of Handmaid’s Tale season 4 are it’s worst though I personally believe this is the second best season after the first season. I just want to see how many slots The Crown and The Handmaid’s Tale leave for other shows in Supporting Actress.

    Aren’t the reviews based on the first few episodes of the season for the most part, which are generally seen as the worst part of it?

    Honestly I wonder if we’ll see a GoT/BCS situation in supporting actress with all The Crown submissions getting in (and Anderson winning) and then not only does Wiley slip back in for The Handmaid’s Tale but so does Dowd à la Esposito.

    It’s entirely possible, though THT getting all 3 of its previously nominated actresses and The Crown only getting 3 people in is too.

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    Victor
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    #1204322311

    Aren’t the reviews based on the first few episodes of the season for the most part, which are generally seen as the worst part of it?

    They were given 8 episodes, some reviewed only the first ones.

    IMO this season is nowhere near Season 2.
    Maybe season 3 could be worst, but i do find myself remembering the peaks of S3 and they were very superior to S4.

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    Victor
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    #1204322315

    I’m predicting The Crown to get 3 (dropped Doherty, i don’t see a reason to have her anymore), Bridgerton 2 and the other 3 are from Ratched, Handmaid’s Tale and Pose (Pose as a hopediction basically, Mosaku makes more sense).

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    wolfali
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    #1204322337

    It’s entirely possible, though THT getting all 3 of its previously nominated actresses and The Crown only getting 3 people in is too.

    I love Yvonne Strahovski’s performance on Handmaid’s but I highly doubt the show is strong enough to get three supporting actress nominees. We just saw The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel fail to get someone as familiar to Emmy voters as Jane Lynch in and that show was far stronger overall and with actors than The Handmaid’s Tale is (i.e. it won SAG ensemble twice, Borstein and Shalhoub won in the midst of one of the most competitive fields in recent memory and the show got season 3 arrivals like Brown and Sykes in). It seems like shows that get 3+ acting nominations under this current voting system are from those that either end up winning (e.g.Succession, Watchmen) or are win competitive (e.g. When They See Us) and The Handmaid’s Tale fits neither the bill. The Crown on the other hand does. I think it and Ted Lasso can really max out in acting nominations.

    dropped Doherty, i don’t see a reason to have her anymore),

    I see Doherty and Fennell as the Allen (I think Couvertue already made this comparison so props to them) and Christie of The Crown. Like Allen, Doherty gives a fan favourite performance that is sometimes cited in reviews of the show and whilst she is more low-key than the rest of the rising stars of her show, she still has done well for herself in industry offers and visibility due to her work on the show. Fennell reminds me of Christie in the sense that she’s a performer who has a lot of individual buzz due to work outside of the show (Fennell with Killing Eve and Promising Young Woman, Christie with roles in shows like Top of the Lake and being a part of other key franchises like Star Wars and The Hunger Games). Both also play very distinctive characters.

    Sure neither will be strong enough to cause a vote-split like Christie arguably was with the GoT ladies but they both do seem to have eerily similarities with that GoT pair. After having dropped Allen back in 2019 for the same reasoning you’ve given for Doherty, I think I’ll keep her in at least as a NGNG prediction.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204322343

    I love Yvonne Strahovski’s performance on Handmaid’s but I highly doubt the show is strong enough to get three supporting actress nominees. We just saw The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel fail to get someone as familiar to Emmy voters as Jane Lynch in and that show was far stronger overall and with actors than The Handmaid’s Tale is (i.e. it won SAG ensemble twice, Borstein and Shalhoub won in the midst of one of the most competitive fields in recent memory and the show got season 3 arrivals like Brown and Sykes in). It seems like shows that get 3+ acting nominations under this current voting system are from those that either end up winning (e.g.Succession, Watchmen) or are win competitive (e.g. When They See Us) and The Handmaid’s Tale fits neither the bill. The Crown on the other hand does. I think it and Ted Lasso can really max out in acting nominations.

    Maisel was up against a more competitive field, but I do see your point. Quadruple nominations are hard to get though. Game of Thrones is our only real example of one happening.

    I see Doherty and Fennell as the Allen (I think Couvertue already made this comparison so props to them) and Christie of The Crown. Like Allen, Doherty gives a fan favourite performance that is sometimes cited in reviews of the show and whilst she is more low-key than the rest of the rising stars of her show, she still has done well for herself in industry offers and visibility due to her work on the show. Fennell reminds me of Christie in the sense that she’s a performer who has a lot of individual buzz due to work outside of the show (Fennell with Killing Eve and Promising Young Woman, Christie with roles in shows like Top of the Lake and being a part of other key franchises like Star Wars and The Hunger Games). Both also play very distinctive characters. Sure neither will be strong enough to cause a vote-split like Christie arguably was with the GoT ladies but they both do seem to have eerily similarities with that GoT pair. After having dropped Allen back in 2019 for the same reasoning you’ve given for Doherty, I think I’ll keep her in at least as a NGNG prediction.

    Makes sense. It’s a little off topic, but as far as the Game of Thrones cast goes, the one nomination that I still struggle to understand is Turner’s. Everyone else who was nominated either had been nominated before or did something in the season. Turner had been snubbed before (she did way more in Season 6 than Maisie Williams did, but Williams still got her first nom over Turner that year) and she did nothing that season. Maybe the voters just wanted to recognize an original cast member who had been with the show since Season 1 as a farewell nom?

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    wolfali
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    #1204322350

    Makes sense. It’s a little off topic, but as far as the Game of Thrones cast goes, the one nomination that I still struggle to understand is Turner’s. Everyone else who was nominated either had been nominated before or did something in the season. Turner had been snubbed before (she did way more in Season 6 than Maisie Williams did, but Williams still got her first nom over Turner that year) and she did nothing that season. Maybe the voters just wanted to recognize an original cast member who had been with the show since Season 1 as a farewell nom?

    I think it just happened to be because of the weakness of the field. I mean they even nominated Fiona Shaw for Killing Eve and she also did nothing (although she was more deserving than Turner imo). Although it had a resurgence, This is Us wasn’t strong enough to get either Metz or Watson in (although it would surprise me if they were 7th and 8th). The actors branch didn’t care for Bodyguard and therefore didn’t care about Hawes and they never have and unfortunately never will care for Rhea Seehorn’s work on Better Call Saul.

    Had either Stranger Things or Big Little Lies premiered during eligibility (both snuck to the summer for commercial reasons in spite of already being ready to drop for eligibility), Turner would have missed for one of Brown, Dern or Streep.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204322357

    I think it just happened to be because of the weakness of the field. I mean they even nominated Fiona Shaw for Killing Eve and she also did nothing (although she was more deserving than Turner imo). Although it had a resurgence, This is Us wasn’t strong enough to get either Metz or Watson in (although it would surprise me if they were 7th and 8th). The actors branch didn’t care for Bodyguard and therefore didn’t care about Hawes and they never have and unfortunately never will care for Rhea Seehorn’s work on Better Call Saul.

    I don’t get why This Is Us wasn’t able to get Watson in though. It did clearly have a resurgence, and the show somehow got Chris Sullivan in so that did translate to the acting categories (otherwise we would have just gotten a Peter Mullan nomination for Ozark or another Game of Thrones nomination for someone like John Bradley, who I think was on the ballot if I remember correctly). And Ozark could have gotten Janet McTeer in and didn’t. There also was Indya Moore, though that depended on the Emmy voters ever caring about Pose as something other than a Billy Porter vehicle with nice techs, which I don’t think they do.

    Had either Stranger Things or Big Little Lies premiered during eligibility (both snuck to the summer for commercial reasons in spite of already being ready to drop for eligibility), Turner would have missed for one of Brown, Dern or Streep.

    If Stranger Things had released a couple months earlier, I think it might have won series.

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    DanC
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    #1204322359

    If Stranger Things had released a couple months earlier, I think it might have won series.

    That’s a bold statement (and I really like ST3). What makes you think that?

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    Kaguya-hime
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    #1204322365

    That’s a bold statement (and I really like ST3). What makes you think that?

    Game of Thrones largely won by default. Better Call Saul isn’t something the Emmys actually care about (I don’t think it was even top 4 in that empty field) and every other show was new to the series lineup. Killing Eve was the only show other than Game of Thrones to get nominated for writing and directing, and I don’t think it was a broad enough contender to contend much for series. Ozark and Succession could have won, but they both had major misses (Supporting Actor and Writing for Ozark, acting and the techs for Succession). Stranger Things would have at least been nominated for writing, directing, and multiple acting categories, and it would have had a lot of tech support as well. If a well-reviewed, widely watched show that the Emmys had already embraced was eligible, I think it might have beaten Game of Thrones. It’s not like Game of Thrones was that strong at the end outside of the techs.

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204322389

    Honestly I wonder if we’ll see a GoT/BCS situation in supporting actress with all The Crown submissions getting in (and Anderson winning) and then not only does Wiley slip back in for The Handmaid’s Tale but so does Dowd à la Esposito.

     

    Moff Gideon is the best tv villain of the 2020s

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    Harmen Moes
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    #1204322391

    What if The Mandalorian wins Best Drama Series… Then I’m going to laugh out loud!

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    Luca
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    #1204322393

    Loll, Stranger Things would not have won series. The show got one (!) above-the-line nomination last year, which was series. It couldn’t get in Harbour & Brown, plus it missed writing, directing and, lol, casting, which it won in 2017. It would have prob done much better this year, or in 2019, in terms of nominations, but let’s not pretend like it’s the smash it was at the 2017 Emmys. The show has only gone down from its season 1 total, so my guess is that there isn’t much interest left for it in the TV academy. It was probably in eighth in series last year.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204322416

    see Doherty and Fennell as the Allen (I think Couvertue already made this comparison so props to them) and Christie of The Crown.

    I sort of agree with parts of your rationale here but not all of it. Neither Williams or Headey were anywhere near as strong as Anderson this year. I think Allen doesn’t work as an analogy here – he was in another category. I think Fennell/Turner are fair comparisons on name recognition – Turner is in-the-tabloids-every-day famous. I know Fennell is a different type of critically-famous, but I think they’re a better analogy. I think Christie just…got in. Possibly easier than people thought. The audience response to her when they presented was borderline excessive. I actually think Allen probably got in because of Coster-Waldau being weak (Headey and Christie were generally the ones praised in scenes with him, and I think Dinklage dominates in scenes with him).

    I just don’t think Doherty has any of those advantages although I wouldn’t be angry at her getting nominated because I thought she was really charming.

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    methaddiction
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    #1204322440

    Stranger Things is/was never going to win series if it couldn’t for season 1 💀 especially over game of thrones.

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    Luca
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    #1204322444

    I remember when people were trying to find an alternative to Game of Thrones in 2019, despite the fact that Thrones got 32 noms and was the biggest show ever. I remember some people suggesting Killing Eve would win over it, lolol.

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