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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 1)

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203802525

    Well I was predicting Camp but I have to say that I got to episode 5 and I’m questioning my own prediction of Heller. It isn’t just a Taylor-Joy vehicle but the supporting cast appear in some episodes and have lots of material in them and then disappear in others.

    Yeah I’m having the same problem with my predictions. Sangster’s role gets bigger in the last couple of episodes, so I think I’ll go with him.

    rubbish

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    DvirBA
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    #1203802537

    Sopranos prequel Many Saints of Newark is due in March 2021, from David Chase and Alan Taylor- what do you think of it’s chances at the Emmys? Will Chase make an Emmy comeback?

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    Victor
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    #1203802539

    Sopranos prequel Many Saints of Newark is due in March 2021, from David Chase and Alan Taylor- what do you think of it’s chances at the Emmys? Will Chase make an Emmy comeback?

    This will premier in theaters no?

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    DvirBA
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    #1203802542

    This will premier in teathers no?

    That’s a good question, I always figured it’s just another HBO movie lol… Is it planned for a theatre release or TV airing?

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    Victor
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    #1203802544

    Guys, let me tell you something, I’m a HBO person but GOD, I just finished TQG and I’m totally speechless, there is no other word for that ending that isn’t ‘flawless’

    Ep 7 deserves a nod for its sound, I was totally submersed by the score, and I just feel like a trainwreck right now because I loved it SO MUCH, it’s my favorite Limited Series at the top of the top and I think it’s hard that someone this season will top it for me personally.

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    Victor
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    #1203802548

    That’s a good question, I always figured it’s just another HBO movie lol… Is it planned for a theatre release or TV airing?

     

    Per wikipedia

     

    The film was initially scheduled to be released on September 25, 2020,[29] however, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on theaters and the film industry, its release date was rescheduled to March 12, 2021

     

    I think is another Downton Abbey situation.

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    wolfali
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    #1203803678

    The Many Saints of Newark is ineligible. It was scheduled for a cinema release and atm is still scheduled for one so unless it goes on HBO Max and the rules on what’s eligible for the Oscars 2022 go back to “normal” then it’s going to be ineligible here.

    Moving on whilst I initially was not so confident about Kidman’s chances I think my opinion has changed now that I’ve seen the first episode of The Undoing. Obviously she could very easily miss if we have fierce competition this year (which is possible) but if voters are only going to be watching the first episode of the show regardless of what you think of it she’s so front and centre of it and so theatrical in it that it would be hard to really not remember her performance. Of course you can then say well Kaitlyn Dever missed despite being the Lead of her episode but Unbelievable was dropped onto Netflix as a bingeable box set in the beginning of September and Dever also missed SAG and had nowhere near the same name recognition as Kidman. Then of course you can say Kidman missed SAG this time round for Big Little Lies but she doesn’t face anywhere near the problems she faced for BLL s2 this year or the problems Dever faced:

    – The Undoing is being pushed way more by HBO than BLL s2 was (in fact one can argue it’s being pushed more than I May Destroy You is right now internationally).

    – It is airing the closest any other Limited Series is right now (apart from Your Honour, Small Axe and potentially Genius (if it arrives on time for SAG)) to the winter awards which Big Little Lies s2 didn’t.

    – Kidman gives the showiest performance in the first episode of The Undoing which she didn’t do in the first two episodes of BLL s2 (those honours belonged to Streep and Dern).

    – What hurt Big Little Lies was the Andrea Arnold controversy. There doesn’t seem to be an on set controversy here.

    – Kidman has been receiving a tonne of praise in interviews. Interviewers, her cast mates and almost all the critics (sans the more negative ones from THR and Variety) even the ones who gave the show more mixed reviews have either praised her and/or said she’s one of the greatest actors ever (which I think is a bit much) or of her generation. It’s kind of similar to the praise Streep received for BLL.

    This isn’t me saying her performance is awards worthy (she doesn’t even crack my top 3 of Limited Series performances this year) but I think it would be very ignorant to ignore the buzz for her performance right now and for the show despite its 66% RT score and 63 MC score. The idea that it is panned or a flop imo is a flawed one considering how the show has better reviews than 12 time nominee this year Hollywood and Ratched (which some on here often seem to compare with The Morning Show for some reason) it so far has a decent audience score (currently at 83% on RT and 8.3 on IMDB). I doubt Kelley gets nominated at WGA or in Writing at the Emmys because pretty much everyone says the writing is the weakest part of the story (apart from maybe the 10 critics who have given it like 80+ on Metacritic) – if it got writers support it would be quite a significantly big sign of support for the show because the writing deserves no nominations whatsoever. However I think we need to watch out for it at the Globes (I think its not winning anything apart from maybe for Grant although I think it has 3 nominations on lock there) and watch out for this possibility of Kidman and/or Grant winning SAG and Bier getting nominated at DGA.

    I also think there’s a possibility the show does actually get nominated at CC in Series (I was only predicting Grant). Yes it has a Metacritic score of 63 and an RT score of 65% but let’s not forget that sometimes the CC have no integrity. They don’t always go all out for shows with critical acclaim. I mean people said on the Globes thread that The Loudest Voice only got in because last year was an empty field but that is false. At the Globes if they cared about critical acclaim more than baity high profile and more recent dramas they would have nominated <i>When They See Us </i>over The Loudest Voice. At CC they would have nominated The Act in Series over The Loudest Voice and if they wanted to check everything off with critical acclaim first they’d have nominated Matthew Macfadyen over Billy Crudup. The Undoing has better reviews than both The Morning Show and The Loudest Voice, is on a bigger and more respected network and has a bigger international campaign push.

    Anyway I’ve decided to take Mare of Easttown out for now because I think HBO won’t decide whether to air it until they see what happens at the winter awards on both the film and the TV side. After all they may end up winning the CC for Actress (for Coel) and SAG (for Kidman) meaning they have two strong competitors for the Emmys and if Winslet flops at the precursors for Ammonite and misses the Oscar nomination what reason is there to release Mare of Easttown?

    1. Beanie Feldstein, Impeachment
    2. Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
    3. Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
    4. Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
    5. Nicole Kidman, The Undoing (+3)

    6. Kate McKinnon, The Dropout (-1)
    7. Cynthia Erivo, Genius : Aretha
    8. Julianne Moore, Lisey’s Story (+1)
    9. Kate Mara, A Teacher (+1)
    10. Thuso MbeduThe Underground Railroad

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Victor
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    #1203803714

    in fact one can argue it’s being pushed more than I May Destroy You is right now internationally

    Don’t know about around the globe, but here I may destroy you had zero promo, 95% of HBO people don’t even know it exist, Succession was also dead here in Brazil, it’s starting to gain momentum now post Emmys.

    Examples of what they push here? We Are Who We Are right now is everywhere, Big Little Lies S2 was everywhere, Westworld S3, Watchmen, and right now they are really pushing Undoing as I said earlier, Kidman is very much a queen over here

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    gabspss
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    #1203803719

    I May Destroy You was pretty wide watched in Brazil. Even Oscar nominated/BAFTA winner editor of City of God praised the show.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    Victor
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    #1203803726

    For me Kidman was always a sure bet at the Globes, they nominate her for literally anything.

    I wish the Globes had one category for tv writing and one for tv directing, michaela coel deserved a statue.

    And yes, Coel is winning the Critics Choice, witch is not much since the Critics is the VMAs of the TV industry, but it’s better than nothing I guess.

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    Victor
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    #1203803736

    I May Destroy You was pretty wide watched in Brazil. Even Oscar nominated/BAFTA winner editor of City of God praised the show.

    It had the support for the Brazilian industry and the people who read about it, yes

    But the promo was close to none, hell, even RUN was more advertised by them.

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    wolfali
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    #1203803741

    Don’t know about around the globe, but here I may destroy you had zero promo, 95% of HBO people don’t even know it exist, Succession was also dead here in Brazil, it’s starting to gain momentum now post Emmys. Examples of what they push here? We Are Who We Are right now is everywhere, Big Little Lies S2 was everywhere, Westworld S3, Watchmen, and right now they are really pushing Undoing as I said earlier, Kidman is very much a queen over here

    Well I May Destroy You was being PUSHED a lot in the UK this is true (after all it is a British show on the BBC’s flagship channel) but The Undoing is being pushed more than that (i.e. IMDY was not in the news simply because it existed even though it had a tonne of buzz) and is being pushed on the same level as The Crown here (and The Crown is a bigger hit here than in the US).

    I think I May Destroy You will do VERY well awards wise but I think it looks like HBO are pushing The Undoing a lot. More than The Third Day and Destroy You.

    BLL s2 was being pushed a lot here but not as much as The Undoing is right now. Same with Watchmen (pushed a lot but not as much as The Undoing). <i>We Are Who We Are </i>hasn’t aired here yet and is airing on the BBC instead of on Sky (where pretty much every other piece of non BBC co-production HBO content airs) so I can’t comment on that one yet.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203803744

    At the moment for each of the categories in terms of frontrunners I’d say:

    Actress

    Globe – Taylor-Joy (Coel)
    Critics Choice – Coel (Taylor-Joy)
    SAG – Kidman (Blanchett)

    Actor

    Globe – Hawke (Grant)
    Critics Choice – Hawke and Grant tie
    SAG – Grant (Cranston)

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Victor
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    #1203803749

    Well I May Destroy You was being PUSHED a lot in the UK this is true (after all it is a British show on the BBC’s flagship channel)

    Probably why I didn’t know that the show had so many support from the US and UK industry and voters, it’s good to know these things.

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    Victor
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    #1203803759

    Critics Choice – Hawke and Grant tie

    It’s so funny that we can predict ties at the Critics because it happens every single year.

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