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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 1)

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    Victor
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    #1203795176

    Ouch, The Undoing received a 25/100 from Indie wire, the score dropped to 62

    I would not expect this in a million years

    https://www.indiewire.com/2020/10/the-undoing-review-hbo-nicole-kidman-1234594104/

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    wolfali
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    #1203795275

    I think The Undoing is this year’s The Morning Show. A crafts contender because of how expensive a series it is, a name-check director and actors bait (big stars in theatrical roles with one of the Leads garnering a tonne of acclaim and the other garnering a more mixed response). So it isn’t in the “universally panned territory” that something like Hollywood had. It still has 5 rave reviews, 5 mixed reviews and 2 negative reviews so I would say more “divisive” than “panned” so I think it really depends on audience response before we rule it out anywhere because HBO seem to be campaigning it a tonne and Grant and Sutherland seem to be getting good citations for it. In fact apart from the Indiewire review all the negativity seems to be focused around Kelley’s writing (I think it’s safe to say unless the show becomes win competitive for Series somehow that he’s not getting nominated) in a similar way to how the negative reviews for The Morning Show were focused around the writing.

    I do think Taylor-Joy (and not Kidman) will be winning the Globe.

    At the moment I’m currently predicting the following noms for The Undoing

    Golden Globes:
    Limited Series
    Actress
    Actor

    Critics Choice:
    Actor
    Supporting Actor

    SAG:
    Actor
    Actress

    Emmys:
    Actor
    Actress
    Supporting Actor
    Directing
    Cinematography
    Contemporary Costumes
    Contemporary Hairstyling
    Production Design
    Sound Mixing

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203795282

    If Nine Perfect Strangers is released this season, then I would bet on that becoming Kidman/Kelley Emmys focus rather than The Undoing. HBO themselves will bet on other limited series they have ready (like the one with Kate Winslet).

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    wolfali
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    #1203795300

    I doubt Nine Perfect Strangers is released this season though. If it does then Kidman is this year’s Reese.

    I just realised I sound like I’m some sort of a stan hope-dicting this show. I’m not advocating for The Undoing! (although I will watch it regardless) It’s just it is giving me TMS vibes all over again.

    If Scenes From a Marriage arrives on time I could see Michelle Williams winning again and taking Kidman’s slot but I think Grant is fairly safe here. He’s having a career renaissance and this is being cited as better than what was previously said to be his career best performance (which he was nominated for last time).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203795352

    I doubt Nine Perfect Strangers is released this season though. If it does then Kidman is this year’s Reese. I just realised I sound like I’m some sort of a stan hope-dicting this show. I’m not advocating for The Undoing! (although I will watch it regardless) It’s just it is giving me TMS vibes all over again. If Scenes From a Marriage arrives on time I could see Michelle Williams winning again and taking Kidman’s slot but I think Grant is fairly safe here. He’s having a career renaissance and this is being cited as better than what was previously said to be his career best performance (which he was nominated for last time).

    I can’t find an end of production date, but Nine Perfect Strangers has been shooting since August. It seems like Hulu wants to have a limited series every spring (The Act, LFE) and considering the order for NPS is I believe just 8, I think it’s possible it airs this season.

    I agree about Hugh Grant likely getting in considering the reviews, but the show will have aired so long ago by the time noms come out and recent limited series have suffered from that (Unbelievable for example). If NPS indeed comes out,  I imagine Kidman will end up being predicted more for that than The Undoing. And like you mentioned with Reese, she could also be snubbed for both, considering BLL s2 showed she is as vulnerable as anyone else, especially if her show isn’t that much well received.

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    Victor
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    #1203795400

    It’s weird how both Fargo and The Undoing underperformed, and critical hits like The Good Lord Bird and even We Are who We Are came out of nowhere.

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    wolfali
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    #1203795413

    I can’t find an end of production date, but Nine Perfect Strangers has been shooting since August. It seems like Hulu wants to have a limited series every spring (The Act, LFE) and considering the order for NPS is I believe just 8, I think it’s possible it airs this season.

    I think The Dropout is far likelier than Nine Perfect Strangers to be ready on time. It only was scheduled to shoot for two months and Hulu have confirmed they are pushing it this cycle so I assume that will be the Limited Series this Spring and Nine Perfect Strangers is going to this Summer. Also I believe Kidman is supporting in NPS?

    I agree with the Unbelievable comparisons except what hurt Unbelievable as well IMO is the fact that it didn’t win anything big other than CC for Collette because of how Williams and Chernobyl swept and how Arquette won the Globe. The winners of Actress, S. Actor and Series will not be eligible this cycle so I don’t think that will be a problem for really any contender as much this time round. I think Kidman might still win SAG in the same way Aniston did (big theatrical performance from an A-lister with no clear frontrunner) and I won’t be surprised if Sutherland does a Clarkson (beloved veteran in a scene stealing supporting performance on a high profile HBO prestige miniseries).

    Really we can’t say anything about what will happen with it nominations wise at the Emmys right now because we don’t know how the field will play out, how much buzz this will have going into the winter awards and how audiences will respond but I will say that Kidman is vulnerable, it’s not getting into Writing and that it’s not winning Series. The show, Kidman and Grant are locked at the Globes IMO because HBO seem to be campaigning the tonne out of this show already so I think at worst it will end up like Big Little Lies s2 there to I May Destroy You‘s Succession.

    I’ve said this before and I do think though that The Good Lord Bird is this year’s Escape at Dannemora and Impeachment and Inventing Anna could be this year’s Chernobyl vs When They See Us.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    wolfali
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    #1203795420

    and even We Are who We Are came out of nowhere.

    We Are Who We Are is in Drama and even then I don’t see that one happening. I’ve seen no buzz for it and its ratings are more appalling than last year’s also critically acclaimed Years and Years that I think it would need some miracle (HBO Max catch up) for it to do well at the Emmys. The Good Lord Bird did indeed come out of nowhere and I probably am going to slot the show in Series if Your Honour flops (I have 100/1 odds on it right now).

    I wouldn’t compare Fargo and The Undoing until we see how audiences react with the latter. I feel like there is still buzz for the latter right now (that obviously can easily change) and it has the star power element that I’d be very surprised to not see drag viewers in whilst the former has neither of these.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    jjjmoss1
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    #1203796776

    Undoing down to 61 on Metacritic? Katy Perry’s Prism levels.

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    Hoster1
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    #1203796863

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5anWrBFPmY

    This is coming for TV Movie nomination for saving 2020.

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    Victor
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    Victor
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    #1203797031

    Not sure if it was already posted, but here it is

     

    Court will be in session with Showtime’s limited series Your Honor on Sunday, Dec. 6 at 10/9c.

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    Victor
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    #1203797375

    The Queen’s Gambit sit at 100% at Rotten Tomatoes and 83 at metacritic with 15 and 11 reviews, respectively

    The Undoing sit at 62% at Rotten Tomatoes and 63 at metacritic, 26 and 19 respectively.

     

     

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    wolfali
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    #1203797403

    Critics consensus on Rotten Tomatoes for The Undoing:

    The Undoing is a beautifully shot mystery that benefits greatly from Nicole Kidman and Hugh Grant’s performances – if only its story was as strong as its star power.

    No consensus yet for The Queen’s Gambit. I think if the reviews stay at this level for it it’s safe to say that Taylor-Joy is one of the early frontrunners (in terms of with things that have aired into consideration) but I just realised there is a possibility neither Kidman, Taylor-Joy, Coel, Peet, Mara, Strahovski etc get in at the Emmys because there are a lot of potential spring contenders :

    – Cynthia Erivo, Genius
    – Beanie Feldstein, Impeachment
    – Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
    – Lily James, The Pursuit of Love
    – Anne Marie-Duff, The Salisbury Poisonings
    – Thesu Mbedu, The Underground Railroad
    – Kate McKinnon, The Dropout
    – Meryl Streep, Let Them Talk
    – Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
    – Michelle Williams, Scenes from a Marriage

    I still think Kidman and Grant are getting in at the Emmys (Kidman admittedly could very easily miss because that Actress field is ruthless but I don’t see Grant missing because his field seems to be emptier imo). However what I’ve noticed is how similar the critics consensus both The Morning Show and The Undoing have on Rotten Tomatoes:

    Though The Morning Show at times feels more like a vanity project than the hard-hitting drama it aspires to be, there is pleasure to be had in watching Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon give it their all.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Victor
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    #1203797408

    – Meryl Streep, Let Them Talk

     

    Wait, Meryl has a mini coming?

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