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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 11)

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    jjjmoss
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    #1204360599

    Maria Bakalova had missed for Philipa Soo)

    more asian excellence getting nominated woulda been nice.

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    Ghost
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    #1204360679

    I was posting in the personal awards thread my own for these categories and the fact that the directors branch nominated Hamilton over Small Axe just rubs me the wrong way. Yuck.

    I was wondering what happened there. I thought Small Axe was a shoo-in.

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    kat_ebbs
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    #1204360697

    National Theatre set up their own streaming service during the pandemic and uploaded plays featuring some of the best performances of recent times (Anderson in Streetcar, Piper in Yerma…) If Hamilton was allowed to be submitted for the Emmys, those plays should have been as well.

    I did notice they held over a bunch of plays til the last 6 weeks or so maybe that is in their plan for 2022 (apparently rights are very complicated). They are international so I assume they’d qualify.

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    mafro987
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    #1204360757

    The World To Come (starring Katherine Waterston and Vanessa Kirby) is out in UK cinemas today, which reminded me – can we not act like Waterston didn’t EAT this supporting actress category with her performance in The Third Day?

    It’s annoying that we could make a better category using 6 entirely different performances to the ones that actually got in.

    For Your Consideration:

    I May Destroy You in all categories
    (especially Michaela Coel in Lead Actress and Writing)

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    mateil
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    #1204360799

    I understand the gist of what you’re saying but after what happened at the Emmys (here at the forum,most users including me were very confident that Emmy voters wouldn’t vote for a filmed stage play… But see what happened..),I don’t know how much we can trust the Oscar voters. We did have faith in the Emmy Voters that they’d not nominate Hamilton but eventually they did.
    Moreover Oscars have a history of nominating Filmed Stage Plays like when Laurence Olivier and Maggie smith got nominated for a filmed play Othello.

    Was that also a filmed play? I thought it was just a film based on the play with the same actors, kinda like Fences or Olivier’s Hamlet.

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    Tyler
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    #1204360892

    What a bomb The Third Day was. Zero buzz

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    estrelas
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    #1204361000

    Just finished watching the last episode of I May Destroy You, and yeah it’s officially my favourite miniseries and show of the year. What a masterpiece. It deserves a full sweep!!!

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    Victor
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    #1204361015

    What a bomb The Third Day was. Zero buzz

    It deserved more

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    mafro987
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    #1204361058

    What a bomb The Third Day was. Zero buzz

    It was quite niche, and frankly the overindulgent editing and uneven writing put some people (even critics) off. The ensemble however was A+, and definitely one of the best in the Limited field this season. Naomie Harris, Jude Law and Katherine Waterston were all win worthy to be honest, while Emily Watson, Paddy Considine and Nico Parker (Thandiwe Newton’s daughter) were great in smaller roles.

    For Your Consideration:

    I May Destroy You in all categories
    (especially Michaela Coel in Lead Actress and Writing)

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    mafro987
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    #1204361074

    Just finished watching the last episode of I May Destroy You, and yeah it’s officially my favourite miniseries and show of the year. What a masterpiece. It deserves a full sweep!!!

    Sorry for the double post (only saw this after) but I wonder whether this will be a common theme even among voters – as more of them catch up with IMDY now that it’s nominated in Series and see how undeniable it is, maybe it will gain even more traction?

    For Your Consideration:

    I May Destroy You in all categories
    (especially Michaela Coel in Lead Actress and Writing)

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    estrelas
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    #1204361080

    Sorry for the double post (only saw this after) but I wonder whether this will be a common theme even among voters – as more of them catch up with IMDY now that it’s nominated in Series and see how undeniable it is, maybe it will gain even more traction?

    Hopefully. It really deserves. The finale blew my mind completely. Best show of the year imo.

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    wolfali
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    #1204361894

    IMO the fact that I May Destroy You has gotten all these nominations more than a year after it finished airing and in spite of having lost every televised winter award is a testament to its growing strength. It strikes me as a show that at this point quite a lot of these voters have seen but the word of mouth is strong and now it has achieved such a strong Emmy nominations haul, those who haven’t seen it will now take a look as it’s a bonafide awards player. Which in turn could give it a boost especially considering how almost all of these voters will have seen something like WandaVision or The Queen’s Gambit and I anticipate by now most of them will have seen Mare of Easttown.

    This is partly why I have Coel winning but also there seemed to be a lot of excitement at Michaela Coel “finally getting what she deserves” after these nominations were announced whilst that didn’t really feel like it was the case with the other women nominated in this category and I think that can manifest itself in an upset in actress. Even though I may not be as confident in I May Destroy You taking series (although I do think that is a strong possibility as well) because of how much tech support has boosted contenders in these categories recently. These aren’t the Oscars where the same people are voting for acting and writing so I feel like it would be rather presumptuous to think that members of the actors branch will think that Coel is guaranteed a writing win and therefore refrain from voting for her in actress (especially considering that doesn’t follow recent trends under the current voting system).

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    forwardswill
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    #1204361916

    But where is the evidence that it’s passion is actively growing now vs. the notion that at some point in the last year people just got around to watching it (hence why it did so well in the visibility-orientated nominations)?

    EDIT: This also feels like a situation where a few on here are projecting what they want to happen (IMDY is my preference of the options too) and then working backwards to find the reasoning for it. Like with Fleabag, which is a comparison that gets tossed around a lot understandably, not only did it air at a better time but also it was a major talking point on nomination day because of how much it exceeded expectations. I didn’t really see many focusing on IMDY on nomination day because it did about as well as most of us were expecting. And the amount of chatter about it hasn’t really changed since. People are now treating it as if IMDY is the same as MJ Rodriguez where the nominations validated her as a potential winner. But it just isn’t the same because Rodriguez was everywhere suddenly while the conversation about IMDY seemed to stay amongst the same circles.

    I am personally far more wary of something like Wandavision because that definitely had a renewed sense of interest and discussion in the nominations due to the relative surprise of it coming out on top of all the Limited Series.

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    wolfali
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    #1204361926

    I’d argue <i>I May Destroy You</i> did have quite a few surprise nominations that were unexpected and may be indicative of growing passion. Not only did it get one but it also got two directing nominations. Likewise there was always a possibility that Coel would be the only performer on the show that actors would care for yet Essiedu surprised (at least surprised in the sense of the odds) in spite of not having been cited at somewhere like the Critics Choice (who tend to be quite good at choosing passion picks and acclaimed “out of the box” performances in their supporting categories). The fact that he managed to slip could suggest a growing sign of strength for a show that until now has only been seen as “the Michaela Coel show” (and in some ways rightfully so). That being said it’s hard to tell whether Weruche Opia’s snub is a detriment to the show or Coel’s chances in acting or it’s just a situation where whilst she seemed well positioned she ultimately failed to get in due to the competitive nature of the field and/or voters not taking to her performance (as we’ve seen with other performers in shows that have won acting Emmys recently).

    EDIT: This also feels like a situation where a few on here are projecting what they want to happen

    I’m sorry with all due respect I find this to be quite a lazy argument. Not because I’m actually not predicting the show that is my personal choice in series to win but at the end of the day (especially in a wide open race like this in actress) we all tend to be partially swayed by our own biases when making predictions whether intentionally or unintentionally, largely or partially. It’s fruitless.

    I am personally far more wary of something like Wandavision because that definitely had a renewed sense of interest and discussion in the nominations due to the relative surprise of it coming out on top of all the Limited Series.

    I agree with this actually (and I have the show as the series runner up at the moment). It’s not the amount of nominations the show managed to get that’s making me think it’s a dark horse but where it’s gotten them. It more or less either performed as it was expected to (three acting nominations) or over-performed (three writing nominations) with each branch. The three writing nominations could be quite a testament to its strength considering how many episodes it had on the ballot and how auteur driven that branch has become in recent years (somewhat ironically the last and only time a limited series received three writing nominations, it won limited series).

    I have Elizabeth Olsen in fourth but I feel so unsure about that prediction. At the end of the day she gives the most acclaimed performance on the show and arguably has an “it’s her moment” narrative at play so I feel weird having Bettany in second, the show in second and Hahn in first but her in fourth.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    wolfali
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    #1204361929

    Is this the place I go to complain about Amazon’s complete dumping of The Underground Railroad? They had the best quality limited series this season that should be winning series, director, and quite a have multiple acting nominations, and I hardly saw any promotion for it, plus the way they intend you to binge a show about a brutal subject matter, instead of piecing it out week by week. Uhhhh, just one of the best examples of visual storytelling on tv, and it’ll probably get nothing. First annapurna with Beale Street, now Amazon with this, it’s just a shame Barry Jenkins made a masterpiece and it got forgotten again.

    One of the key problems this show (and other shows of its length) have is that no working professional is going to have any time to binge a ten episode show (never mind one with such a dark subject matter like this one) that quickly. Shows need time to grow regardless of whether they are dropped all in one go (aka use the Netflix model) or air on a week by week basis. If Hacks had been dropped all in one go at the end of May, Smart may have been its only acting nomination.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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