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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 11)

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    wolfali
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    #1204362804

    These Chernobyl and The Queen’s Gambit comparisons are quite flawed. The former was plot driven and built momentum by airing weekly during the spring whilst the latter is a character study that aired in the autumn and has the momentum of “being the early frontrunner” and having swept the winter awards.

    However I do agree that a situation where The Queen’s Gambit loses actress but takes home series due to wider below the line support is possible. It feels like it could be a race akin to the drama series one in 2018 where there seem to be four series nominees that have strength and the one that has the biggest consensus (both in visibility and overall support) takes the series win even though it might narrowly miss out on categories it should normally be able to take (actress in TQG’s case, directing in GoT’s).

    That being said I’m going to watch out for how well Mare and WandaVision do in below the line wins. If Mare only wins casting I will go by the assumption that it’s benefitted in this category from being a branch passion pick (like When They See Us). If it manages to take other categories alongside casting then I think that could be a strong sign of support for a series win. If WandaVision wheels a lot of these tech categories from The Queen’s Gambit and wins casting then I will not only predict it to win series but also the two lead acting categories (you can even joke I’d be predicting it for four acting categories because I have no plan to switch from predicting Peters to win for Mare and he ironically is also in WandaVision hehe). At least with Mare, IMDY and The Queen’s Gambit one can argue that they are shows that the casting directors in the casting voting pool may choose as a passion pick but why would WandaVision win that category unless it was also winning series when aside from Kathryn Hahn and the two twins, most of its cast members had already been cast in their roles prior to the show’s existence. Regardless I anticipate The Queen’s Gambit will still walk away with editing considering how vote-splitty the category has become and the fact it has the showiest editing in the category.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Manav
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    #1204362931

    Regardless I anticipate The Queen’s Gambit will still walk away with editing considering how vote-splitty the category has become and the fact it has the showiest editing in the category.

    TQG is the obvious frontrunner but if there is to be a spoiler, I am getting the feeling that “Illusions” will be it.

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    Manav
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    #1204363019

    For it to pull an upset it would have to be nominated in editing.

    Sorry I meant Miss Lady Hawk Herself

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    wolfali
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    #1204363021

    Sorry I meant Miss Lady Hawk Herself

    Possible. Although I will eat my hat if it does.

    I just feel like even though it can lose series that realistically The Queen’s Gambit is no lower than second in either that category or editing and considering how vote-splitty those editing categories tend to be and how baity its editing is, this category is likely Gambit’s to lose. If it does lose then it will be a MASSIVE loss and I’d argue the series race would be over.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Victor
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    #1204364154

    I was making my creative arts predictions and I’m pretty sure Wandavision is winning like, at least 3 and with high chances of winning more.
    I think this is being underestimated here.

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    wolfali
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    #1204364174

    I currently have WandaVision completing a near sweep of the music categories (I have Gambit winning original score).

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    mateil
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    Aug 23rd, 2017
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    #1204365221

    Found two intersting stats for the last 6-7 years:
    1. Everytime a series winner didn’t compete against Black Mirror it won writing.
    2. Everytime a series winner didn’t have multiple episodes nominated for Directing and was submitted as a whole, it won Directing.

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    Crackleking
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    #1204365261

    I’m not really active here, I prefer Discord, but I have a strong opinion about Supporting Actor.

    I think Diggs is an absolute lock. His main competition, Boyega wasn’t nominated, he won a Tony for this performance, got in at SAG in a field of 5 against all his Hamilton co stars and gives by far the battiest performance in a play they nominated the heck out of.

    I think this “will they award” Hamilton narrative ended when they gave it 12 nominations including 7 acting nominations.

    So they are clearly willing to award it.

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    Victor
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    #1204365268

    I think I have Evan winning but I’m thinking of changing to Diggs as well.
    This thing is winning something and i don’t think actor is gonna be it.

    In another news i don’t have a single clue on who’s winning Actor, so I’m just defaulting to Ewan McGregor, but i have this weird feeling about Hugh Grant.

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    Couverture
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    #1204365299

    I think this “will they award” Hamilton narrative ended when they gave it 12 nominations including 7 acting nominations. So they are clearly willing to award it.

    Yeah I really don’t get this argument to not predict Hamilton in acting. Why would these people hesitate to award it when they clearly didn’t when nominating it?

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    Victor
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    #1204365311

    I might as well predict Leslie Odom Jr. for the acting win, because there is no “show” on the actor field that performed as big as Hamilton, and his performance is quite huge, unlike the types of Jeremy Irons.

    The thing is, and I’m talking about the acting branch, Halston did get McGregor in but failed to get Rodriguez who was the MVP to most, if not all, unlike I Know This Much is True which was basically a Mark Ruffalo show. Wandavision got what we all somehow predicted and if Paul Bettany ended up winning with frontrunner Kathryn Hahn, why would Olsen lose? I should predict her in that scenario (not doing that so far), and Hugh Grant is basically there for name-check purposes, but i can’t shake the feeling that in this wide open race, they might give him the win he is “overdue” for, still, I’m not buying it.

    That leaves the Hamilton duo, and we all know who is stronger.

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    wolfali
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    #1204365411

    I currently have Evan Peters in supporting actor purely because he seems to have received the most buzz in this category following the nomination, has the “most talked about performance” and arguably has an overdue factor going for him. It could be a situation like with Kathryn Hahn where it’s less about the strength of his show but more the performer’s support and excitement around there being a chance to finally give them their due.

    Diggs can obviously win and I’d be kidding myself to ignore how well Hamilton did in the acting categories but I wonder if he could suffer from a potential vote-split with Ramos (who seems to have a lot of buzz right now partly due to In the Heights). Or is Ramos’ role simply too small (sorry I am quite unfamiliar with <i>Hamilton </i>and the size of its supporting actors’ roles). What I will say though is I am getting closer and closer to predict Leslie Odom-Jr. to win. He similarly seems to have a lot of individual buzz at the moment, could have leftover goodwill from his Oscar run earlier this year and his performance seems to strike a lot of passion (something that can aid him in a field that otherwise seems to be lacking in that).

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204365428

    Yeah I really don’t get this argument to not predict Hamilton in acting. Why would these people hesitate to award it when they clearly didn’t when nominating it?

    There was a whole exhausting debate here about how the number of acting nominations/nominations in general doesn’t mean it will translate to wins.

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204365434

    Found two intersting stats for the last 6-7 years:
    1. Everytime a series winner didn’t compete against Black Mirror it won writing.

    The Hour won against Behind the Candelabra

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    Paul.wm
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    Jan 19th, 2017
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    #1204365949

    Does anyone find it odd that writing and directing are seemingly a race between two different pairs of shows? Writing seems to be I May Destroy You vs Mare of Easttown, whereas directing seems to be The Queen’s Gambit (frontrunner) vs WandaVision (the spoiler). Idk maybe I’m overthinking it and one series sweeps both along with series.

    FYC: The Underground Railroad, Barry Jenkins, The Crown, Tobias Menzies, Helena Bonham Carter, Emily In Paris(for chaos’s sake)

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