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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 11)

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    Ryusei
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    #1204366084

    Halston did get McGregor in but failed to get Rodriguez who was the MVP to most, if not all

    Well I guess that means she wasn’t the MVP after all. At least not to voters.

    Not to be shady I really liked her too but clearly there is a problem with this statement.

    FYC: Lead Actress - Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)

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    Victor
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    #1204366265

    Well I guess that means she wasn’t the MVP after all. At least not to voters.

    Not to be shady I really liked her too but clearly there is a problem with this statement.

    There isn’t really, the Supporting Actress field was just way more crowded than the actor field.
    And even there 2 Hamilton ladies popped up, so there’s that.

    Of course, not all nominations translate to wins, but who is there to stop them?

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    wolfali
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    #1204366395

    Does anyone find it odd that writing and directing are seemingly a race between two different pairs of shows? Writing seems to be I May Destroy You vs Mare of Easttown, whereas directing seems to be The Queen’s Gambit (frontrunner) vs WandaVision (the spoiler). Idk maybe I’m overthinking it and one series sweeps both along with series.

    Directing (and most particularly directing for a limited series) tends to lineup with the series winner here so whatever win series will almost definitely take directing too (unless I May Destroy You somehow surprises out of nowhere but loses directing due to a vote-split). So really anything aside from Hamilton and The Underground Railroad can win. I have The Queen’s Gambit in first because I have it in first in series and I have WandaVision in second because I have both shows in my top 2 in series.

    Writing is a little more interesting. The writers branch historically has tended to either be quite idiosyncratic in its choices and rallied behind the critics’ pick or they’ve matched with the series winner. This year seems to be a year in which they do the former partly because on paper none of Mare of EasttownThe Queen’s Gambit or WandaVision‘s writing seem to have the undeniable passion that ChernobylWatchmen and others have had in previous years. Bu also I have I May Destroy You in first for now because it seems to have everything “out of the box” writing winners have had in the past. It’s the most acclaimed contender in the mix, the show’s writing is a the crux of its acclaim, its auteur driven and most interestingly its British. Recent writers branch choices would suggest that there is a growing amount of the British bloc who are disproportionately represented in this branch. Bodyguard and Catastrophe both managed to get nominated her yet nowhere else and this was one of the first branches to pick up on Killing Eve. When you look at “passion pick upsets” in these categories in the past, they tend to be shows that are either British (The HourSherlockBlack Mirror) or are written by well regarded British writers (Jesse Armstrong). With all this in mind I have I May Destroy You winning at the moment but I think if it loses here, the show that wins over it will also be taking the series prize.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204366409

    Diggs can obviously win and I’d be kidding myself to ignore how well Hamilton did in the acting categories but I wonder if he could suffer from a potential vote-split with Ramos (who seems to have a lot of buzz right now partly due to In the Heights). Or is Ramos’ role simply too small (sorry I am quite unfamiliar with <i>Hamilton </i>and the size of its supporting actors’ roles).

    Since you haven’t seen it, Ramos’ nomination is the reward IMO. His role is quite small despite being a dual one. I’m not even sure he has more screen time than Groff, and the latter I think only has about 8 minutes.

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    Victor
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    #1204366462

    Seems quite easy and a no brainer to predict I May Destroy You for the writing win actually, if it loses I’ll be shocked.

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    mateil
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    #1204366478

    Seems quite easy and a no brainer to predict I May Destroy You for the writing win actually, if it loses I’ll be shocked.

    I’ve had it until today. However history shows us that it tends to go to the series winner. I’ve changed it to The Queen’s Gambit. I also think The Queen’s Gambit is the lighter, more entertaining, more accessible material as opposed to IMDY’s more complex writing, which I think really helps TQG.

    The only thing I think I May Destroy You has for it at this point is them wanting to award Coel something, but I’m not willing to predict voters picking the artist and not the work anymore since it has proven faulty in the last couple of years.

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    mafro987
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    #1204366614

    I also think The Queen’s Gambit is the lighter, more entertaining, more accessible material as opposed to IMDY’s more complex writing, which I think really helps TQG.

    I’d like to think the writers branch is slightly more adventurous than that. IMDY is obviously more complex than TQG, but its themes are also communicated in an engaging, entertaining way. The consensus is also that it’s comfortably the best in the category, which helps.

    The only thing I think I May Destroy You has for it at this point is them wanting to award Coel something, but I’m not willing to predict voters picking the artist and not the work anymore since it has proven faulty in the last couple of years.

    This doesn’t make any sense 💀 the desire to award Coel is as a result of her extraordinary work, so I don’t understand why voters would need to ‘pick the artist’ and not the work in this scenario. Her work is the most acclaimed of the category.

    For Your Consideration:

    I May Destroy You in all categories
    (especially Michaela Coel in Lead Actress and Writing)

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    Crackleking
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    #1204367177

    I think we may be underestimating Hamilton in directing. The reason this new recorded version worked was because of how excellent the direction was as framing the stage play into a movie like experience. It also completely overperformed in noms picking up everything it possibly could showing that it is a formidable contender. While I’m predicting Gambit this looks like the runner up at least and I wouldn’t be suprised if it won.

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    Atypical
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    #1204367213

    I have “Hamilton” easily winning Variety Special (Pre-Recorded), so it would be crazy not having it at least top three in inexplicably placed Directing in a Limited/Anthology Series (currently I have it second). Bo Burnham should send Thomas Kail a gift basket on 9/20/21 lol. People are going to sleep on “Hamilton” all the way to September, I see. Oh well. I still say watch out for Diggs.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204367253

    I think we may be underestimating Hamilton in directing.

    I remember thinking this a few weeks but it was pointed out that Kail lost DGA to Scott Frank and I can’t think of an instance where someone has won the Emmy over the same contender they lost the corresponding DGA to? But if anyone has an example of that I’d really appreciate it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204367331

    I remember thinking this a few weeks but it was pointed out that Kail lost DGA to Scott Frank and I can’t think of an instance where someone has won the Emmy over the same contender they lost the corresponding DGA to?

    This is also is what is making me cautious about predicting WandaVision in series and directing. If it lost DGA when the show was at its peak in buzz and visibility, it might be difficult to win now.

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204367346

    I just double checked the last decade of Emmy and DGA winners across Comedy, Drama and Limited (using Wikipedia so very possible it’s wrong) and the frequency of winners not even being nominated at both does make this more of a “use at your own discretion” case rather than a rule.

    However, the only time DGA and Emmys have picked different winners (that were nominated in the same cycle at both) in the past decade is Adam McKay/Jason Bateman. It TQG loses Directing, it would make more sense for it to lose to something like IMDY or MOE. I’d even be inclined to put WandaVision ahead of Hamilton because the latter premiered well ahead of the eligibility cut-off for DGA whereas the former barely made it by comparison.

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    Manav
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    #1204367383

    The Director’s Branch should be wise and slam dunk it to The Queen’s Gambit.
    Despite the stunning direction of other shows,The Queen’s Gambit should win (no doubt). Just like IMDY should win Writing (no doubt).

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    wolfali
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    #1204367579

    I May Destroy You and WandaVision would make excellent winners in directing but yeah with McQueen snubbed, I hope <i>The Queen’s Gambit</i> wins this category (the only one where its my first choice haha).

    Oscars FYC:
    "Shiva Baby" – in all categories especially Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Score
    "Together" – in all categories especially Actress (Sharon Horgan), Actor (James McAvoy), Original Screenplay
    "CODA" – in all categories especially Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur)
    "Everybody's Talking About Jamie" – Supporting Actor (Richard E. Grant), Supporting Actress (Sarah Lancashire)
    "I'm Your Man" – International Feature
    "Summer of Soul" – Documentary Feature

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204367618

    I May Destroy You and WandaVision would make excellent winners in directing but yeah with McQueen snubbed, I hope <i>The Queen’s Gambit</i> wins this category (the only one where its my first choice haha).

    So True..Btw Directing is the only category where Mare isn’t one of my top 2 choices cause I don’t think Directing was it’s strength.

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