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Yeah I agree with regards to Garner. It will be interesting to see if their infatuation with her is because of Ozark (a bit like how the Globe’s infatuation with Rachel Brosnahan is for her in <i>The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel </i>or how SAG’s infatuation with Elisabeth Moss is for her in The Handmaid’s Tale) or if she’s another Regina King where she’s win competitive for almost everything.
What helps Erivo is that she is likely to be the biggest push from the FX/NatGeo/Hulu family but my only concern is that there seems to be a controversy around her casting. She is quite beloved (although not enough to get in for The Outsider) so I have her 5th because I am unsure what to do with her. She could be win competitive and come in and be the Michelle Williams to Anya Taylor-Joy’s Amy Adams and Michaela Coel’s Patricia Arquette but idk. We’ll see.
I am VERY confident about Thuso Mbedu. She has some hype already for her, she’s likely to have a big campaign from Amazon and as you said Shira Haas happened last year despite being a nobody. I don’t know if we’ll get a show that is as popular as Unorthodox this year (The Queen’s Gambit and Wandavision seem the closest in terms of popularity with the mainstream) but I think The Underground Railroad will do quite well with the Emmys. I’m confident it’s top 3.
I also agree about what you’ve said about nobodies breaking in over A listers. It’s partly why I am bullish about Olly Alexander’s chances and why I think Michaela Coel could easily sweep (I still think directing is between McQueen and Jenkins but I wonder if I May Destroy You can swoop in and take directing too? The episode they’re likely to submit is quite baity.)
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
Congratulations Elizabeth Olsen for your first Emmy nomination.
The Actress category:
The Actor category:
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
Actor:
Olly Alexander, It’s A Sin
Paul Bettany, WandaVision
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
Ewan McGregor, HalstonActress:
Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha
Thuso Mbedu, The Underground Railroad Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s GambitHave a great day if you see this!
FYC: Anthony Hopkins- The Father
FYC: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black BottomStraight/BLM
I’ll actually be upset if many people’s predictions are true and Bettany gets in without Olsen. Bettany has been amazing in WandaVision, don’t get me wrong, but Elizabeth is just OWNING this show, and this past episode proved it. Episode 8 is an absolutely phenomenal showcase for her talent. She’s win-worthy.
It’s gonna be annoying if she misses but she can still get a globe and sag nom since Anya and Michaela will be out
It’s gonna be annoying if she misses but she can still get a globe and sag nom since Anya and Michaela will be out
She can’t get SAG because she’s already competed there this year (their eligibility window was January 2020 to February 2021) but she can get in at the Globes and Critics Choice if she misses.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
She can’t get SAG because she’s already competed there this year (their eligibility window was January 2020 to February 2021) but she can get in at the Globes and Critics Choice if she misses.
Oh I didn’t even know she was eligible for the
Sag.Well yeah she can get the CC and Globes noms
There’s no way Bettany and Hahn are being nominated and not Olsen, regardless of how competitive the actress category is.
Olsen is already a strong contender for the win tbh. Michaela is a much better lock for writing than acting win, imho.
I think Olsen comes in and Inventing Anna loses eligibility
Elizabeth Olsen in episode 8… amazing.
As of now I don’t think Olsen can win (although I haven’t seen the eight episode of Wandavision yet) when I May Destroy You and The Queen’s Gambit are the two series frontrunners. Nominated yes but win I don’t think so. The momentum behind Michaela Coel and Anya Taylor-Joy feels unstoppable.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
Olsen is already a strong contender for the win tbh. Michaela is a much better lock for writing than acting win, imho.
Coel getting in at SAG is huge sign of her performance having support, tho. It always felt like a long shot or wishful thinking for her to get in there considering how populists SAG is and she did.
Also Coel and Taylor-Joy are going to get boosts later on in this season. Coel is likely winning BAFTA (although she does face tough competition there) and her show in all likelihood will be the third buzzy British-American co-production in a row to top nominations at BAFTA (after Killing Eve season 1 and Chernobyl). This woman is being campaigned for by people left right and centre in Hollywood and is likely to garner a tonne of votes from the British bloc (more than It’s a Sin and Small Axe will get). Taylor-Joy has three movies coming out this year, each of which could be a Best Picture nominee at the Oscars.
What does Olsen have to boost her in the next few months? It’s an excellent performance and I have no doubt she would be a deserving winner if what’s being hyped about with this particular episode is true (again I have only seen three episodes of Wandavision) but she doesn’t seem strong enough to overtake those two. No one really does.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
Coel getting in at SAG is huge sign of her performance having support, tho. It always felt like a long shot or wishful thinking for her to get in there considering how populists SAG is and she did.
True, but I don’t think that makes her the front runner to win all the acting awards (apart from probably BAFTA). As you say it was an achievement to make the nom.
I am biased because while I think Michaela’s achievement is immensely impressive, I don’t rate her that highly as an actress. But perhaps that won’t matter because it’s more about awarding her as a creator overall in multiple categories (like how many show creators who are also the stars of their series do win their lead acting award despite not really being the best actors e.g. Girls, Fleabag, Ramy, Atlanta, Master of None).
Also the sheer number of people who have watched Wandavision is insanely high compared to I May Destroy You, although less so Queen’s Gambit I suppose.
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