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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 3)

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    wolfali
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    #1204064339

    – Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice (2020)
    – Anthony Hopkins, King Lear (2019)
    – Bill Pullman, The Sinner (2019)
    – Emma Stone, Maniac (2019)
    – Bryce Dallas Howard, Nosedive (Black Mirror) (2017)
    – Ben Kingsley, Tut (2016)
    – Bill Murray, A Very Murray Christmas (2016)

    What each of those names share in common is that they were leads who made SAG but went on to get snubbed at the Emmys which suggests that roughly every year at least one person who makes SAG in the limited categories eventually gets snubbed at the Emmys (with the only year in which this did not occur being 2018 when there were no leads from limited series or movies nominated at SAG who were eligible for the upcoming Emmy cycle).

    This year the following have been nominated for being the lead in shows competing at the 2021 Emmys:

    – Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
    – Hugh Grant, The Undoing
    – Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
    – Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
    – Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit

    Michaela Coel and Anya Taylor-Joy are locked as they’re not only the frontrunners in the actress category but also their shows seem to be the early frontrunners in Series so that leaves Grant, Hawke and Kidman. I anticipate Grant will win SAG in his category so statistically that makes him a lock at the Emmys.

    So which of Hawke and Kidman are getting snubbed? Or are they both getting snubbed?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    puck05
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    Ethan Hawke is going to win SAG and GG not Hugh Grant. Most of the voters might forget The Undoing when Mare of Easttown becomes the new popular HBO mystery.

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    wolfali
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    The same Ethan Hawke whose show failed to get in at Critics Choice, failed to get in at the Golden Globes and whose show only has 4k votes on IMDB?

    I do think Hawke has a chance at winning both over Grant (like his Boyhood co-star Patricia Arquette won twice over Amy Adams) and I do agree that Mare of Easttown is going to overshadow The Undoing as the popular HBO mystery (and is partly why I think The Undoing will under-perform at the Emmys).

    However to flat out rule Hugh Grant out when his show did well at SAG, did well at the Golden Globes and even got nominated twice over <i>The Good Lord Bird </i>(in Series and Actor) at Critics Choice whilst being a popular show (and an International hit at that) with a popular and charismatic A list lead who has a loud performance… I mean it feels rather dumbfounded to me.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    Elizabeth Olsen (Wandavision) and Lydia West (It’s a Sin) have tied for performer of the week this week.

    https://tvline.com/2021/02/27/elizabeth-olsen-wandavision-performance-episode-8/

    Fingers crossed they get in!

     

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    puck05
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    The same Ethan Hawke whose show failed to get in at Critics Choice, failed to get in at the Golden Globes and whose show only has 4k votes on IMDB?

    Getting into SAG, WGA and AFI is way more important than getting into GG and CC. With some exceptions, non HBO cable limited series are rarely popular on Imdb. Shows like Feud, Fosse Verdon, Mrs. America, Genius and Patrick Melrose don’t have many Imdb votes even though they have been watched by the industry.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    – Ben Kingsley, Tut (2016)

    Not me reading this and thinking, “wow didn’t realise the star of One Night in Miami and High Fidelity had a SAG nom five years ago”

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    wolfali
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    Getting into SAG, WGA and AFI is way more important than getting into GG and CC. With some exceptions, non HBO cable limited series are rarely popular on Imdb. Shows like Feud, Fosse Verdon, Mrs. America, Genius and Patrick Melrose don’t have many Imdb votes even though they have been watched by the industry.

    Writers do not vote for acting awards.

    I agree that The Undoing will under-perform at the Emmys but there is no reason to think at this moment in time that Grant can’t win SAG when actors are clearly loving this show.

    Getting into SAG

    Which The Undoing did do (twice).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    Halston has been retitled “Simply Halston

    WandavisionThe Queen’s GambitThe Underground Railroad, this… those tech categories are going to be a bloodbath!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    Eh Ruffalo is still post-Emmy sweeping. Both Grant and Hawke are happy with the nomination.

    Yeah, i kinda think he’s winning now, i don’t know if it’s last minute panic.
    SAG feels very realistic

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    It’s probably a lock for Best Original Music and Lyrics

    Kristen Anderson-Lopez coming to cross the E off her EGOT.

    Grammy1
    Lopez1
    Oscar2

    Agnes1

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    wolfali
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    What is interesting is there seems to be a greater gap in what’s popular with the industry and what’s popular with the general public in terms of limited series in recent years. In the US, I May Destroy You is popular with the industry but not with audiences. Same with Small Axe (although I don’t even know if that’s even popular with audiences in Europe or in the UK) and It’s a Sin and The Good Lord Bird etc. The Haunting of Bly Manor and A Teacher are popular with audiences but not with the industry.

    The only shows that seem to be popular with both the industry and audiences are The Queen’s Gambit and <i>The Undoing</i>. That obviously doesn’t mean they’re going to win every Emmy lol (I still think the latter is going to under-perform quite dramatically like Unbelievable did) but it’s interesting considering last year almost all the shows nominated here (apart from Mrs. America) were popular with both audiences and the industry. It’ll be interesting to see if Wandavision fits more into the group of The Haunting of Bly Manor or the group of The Queen’s Gambit.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    I’m just gonna say it
    As much as I loved all 5 Small Axe movies, they are still movies and i just don’t think it should be nominated when it told 5 different stories when other shows are creating the same story over the course of all eps.

    I know the rules for anthologies but still.

    Mangrove should be sweeping the Oscars tho and it is still very much getting nominated.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    wolfali
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    I really hope Ewan McGregor is going to come in and shake up the Actor race otherwise they should just reduce the slots in Actor.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    I really hope Ewan McGregor is going to come in and shake up the Actor race otherwise they should just reduce the slots in Actor.

    For real, the actor race is a wasteland
    I just can name Ethan Hawke, Hugh Grant and Olly Alexander (of all the shows that already aired) at the top of my head.

    That will benefit Paul Bettany for sure.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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