Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 3)

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204064934

Yeah I feel like there are only 6 people who stand a chance at getting nominated if Scenes From a Marriage doesn’t get in on time.

Are the Hamilton actors going to be eligible?

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[Victor Joined: Jun 18th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 2163 View Predictions]

#1204064944

I think they won’t, somebody gotta stop this Hamilton thing in acting categories
Is a live performance from years ago.

For Your Emmy Consideration:
Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204064948

The absolutely ridiculous thing is that Olly Alexander and Paul Bettany are likely for a nomination at this point whilst their buzzier and more acclaimed female co-leads Lydia West and Elizabeth Olsen are fighting to get in.

Alexander in a way is understandable getting in whilst West gets snubbed because he’s the principal lead of It’s a Sin but Bettany… I mean at least West can drop down to supporting but yikes if Bettany gets in without Olsen.

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[hopelesstar Joined: Mar 10th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 2040 View Predictions]

#1204064954

I think Hamilton will be eligible

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204064957

hopelesstar wrote:

I think Hamilton will be eligible

A tragedy.

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[Brayden Fitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 121 Posts: 8043 View Predictions]

#1204064961

wolfali wrote:

Are the Hamilton actors going to be eligible?

Probably, actors from live productions of Spongebob and The Little Mermaid were on the ballot last year and live musicals usually do quiet well if it’s a performer / production that the industry likes (Emma Thompson, Audra McDonald, Jesus Christ)

Victor wrote:

I think they won’t, somebody gotta stop this Hamilton thing in acting categories
Is a live performance from years ago.

To be fair, a three old performance of the Spongebob musical was submitted to acting categories last year too.

[Victor Joined: Jun 18th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 2163 View Predictions]

#1204064970

braydenfitzsimmons wrote:

To be fair, a three old performance of the Spongebob musical was submitted to acting categories last year too.

But at least it was for new footage right?
Hamilton is here since the dawn of times.

For Your Emmy Consideration:
Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204065009

Ah well at least we have 8 potential contenders if McGregor misses eligibility instead of 6.

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[Brayden Fitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 121 Posts: 8043 View Predictions]

#1204065058

Victor wrote:

But at least it was for new footage right?
Hamilton is here since the dawn of times.

Not sure. I don’t think it was new footage since it was the original 2017 Broadway cast.

wolfali wrote:

Ah well at least we have 8 potential contenders if McGregor misses eligibility instead of 6.

Alexander; Bettany; Hawke; Grant; Manuel; Odom, Jr. Rahim and who else?

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204065068

braydenfitzsimmons wrote:

Alexander; Bettany; Hawke; Grant; Manuel; Odom, Jr. Rahim and who else?

Oops I miscounted.

So unless there’s a surprise that’s our clear top 7 (not in that order).

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[Victor Joined: Jun 18th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 2163 View Predictions]

#1204065084

I want and low-key don’t want to be more competition because of Ethan Hawke.
WandaVision is enormous right now and of Disney indeed campaigns, then Bettany is probably safer than he is.

So, less competition more Ethan Hawke for me.

For Your Emmy Consideration:
Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204065364

Weekly update of IMDB tallies and scores for each of the shows that have aired so far. Those that have been out for two weeks or less or are still airing are in bold:

1. The Queen’s Gambit – 266k votes (+4k votes, no change in ranking)
2. The Haunting of Bly Manor – 70k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
3. Wandavision – 66k votes (+8k votes, no change in ranking)
4. The Undoing – 57k votes (no change, no change in ranking)
5. Your Honour – 19k votes (+1k votes, no change in ranking)

6. It’s a Sin – 13k votes (+2k votes, up one rank)
7. Small Axe (TOTAL OF ALL INDIVIDUAL FILMS) – 12k votes (no change in votes, down one rank)
8. I May Destroy You – 11k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
9. A Teacher – 8k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
10. The Third Day – 7k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)

11. The Comey Rule – 6k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
12. Stateless – 6k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
13. We Are Who We Are – 5k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
14. The Good Lord Bird – 4k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
15. Small Axe (SERIES) – 2k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)

IMDB rating:

1. It’s a Sin – 8.9 (no change)
2. The Queen’s Gambit – 8.6 (no change)
3. WandaVision – 8.3 (+0.1)
4. I May Destroy You – 8.1 (no change)
5. Small Axe – 7.9 (no change)

6. Your Honor – 7.8 (-0.1)
7. The Good Lord Bird – 7.6 (no change)
8. Stateless – 7.5 (no change)
9. The Comey Rule – 7.4 (no change)
9. The Haunting of Bly Manor – 7.4 (no change)
9. The Undoing – 7.4 (no change)

12. We Are Who We Are – 7.1 (no change)
13. A Teacher – 6.9 (no change)
14. The Third Day – 6.4 (no change)

And for those eligible at the guilds/precursors, here is their performance there thus far (only counting shows that are eligible for this Emmy cycle):

1. The Queen’s Gambit (18) – AACTA (x2), AFI, Art Directors Guild, Critics Choice (x3), Golden Globes (x2), Makeup and Hairstylists Guild (x2), Music in Media (x2), Screen Actors Guild Awards (x2), Society of Composers and Lyricists, Scripter, Writers Guild Awards

2. I May Destroy You (14) – AACTA, Broadcasting Press Guild (x3), Critics Choice (x2), Gotham, Royal Television Society (x4), Spirits (x2), Screen Actors Guild Awards

3. The Undoing (11) – AACTA (x2), Critics Choice (x3), Golden Globes (x4), Screen Actors Guild (x2)

4. Small Axe (10) – Broadcasting Press Guild (x5), Critics Choice (x2), Golden Globes (x2), Spirits

5. The Good Lord Bird (7) – AFI, Critics Choice (x2), Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Scripter, Writers Guild

6. Fargo (3) – Art Directors Guild, Critics Choice (x2)

7. The Comey Rule (2) – Golden Globes (x2)

8. A Teacher (1) – Spirits

8. Dirty John (1) – Writers Guild

8. Your Honour (1) – Golden Globes

8. We Are Who We Are (1) – Spirits

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204065481

A lot of shows have obviously delayed till April/May but roughly every year there is at least one show that airs around February/March that gets into Series. Unorthodox, Little Fires Everywhere, The Alienist, The Assassination of Gianni Versace, Feud, Big Little Lies, The People vs OJ Simpson, American Crime…

The only year since 2015 in which this hasn’t happened was in 2019 (the year when The Act was really the only limited series that aired during this period and it was a tight battle between <i>When They See Us </i>and Chernobyl). So statistically speaking this bodes well for the three shows airing around February/March (Genius, It’s a Sin and Wandavision) and their series chances.

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[Brayden Fitzsimmons Joined: May 3rd, 2015 Topics: 121 Posts: 8043 View Predictions]

#1204065554

Something interesting stats noticed vis-à-vis the correspondence between Series/Movie nominated programming and actors.

From the last five ceremonies (119 acting nominees), 28 nominees of those come from non-series nominated series.

Audra McDonald – Lady Day at Emerson’s Grill and Bar
Kathy Bates – American Horror Story: Hotel
Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Hotel
Felicity Huffman – American Crime (S3)
Regina King – American Crime (S3)
Jeff Daniels – The Looming Tower
Regina King – Seven Seconds
Jessica Biel – The Sinner
Edie Falco – Law & Order True Crime: The Mendenez Brothers
Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult
Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar
John Legizumo – Waco
Michael Stuhlberg – The Looming Tower
Sara Bareilles – Jesus Chris Superstar
Letitia Wright – Black Mirror: Black Museum
Mahershala Ali – True Detective (S3)
Hugh Grant – A Very English Scandal
Joey King – The Act
Ben Whishaw – A Very English Scandal
Patricia Arquette – The Act
Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True
Paul Mescal – Normal People
Jeremy Pope – Hollywood
Octavia Spencer – Self Made
Dylan McDermott – Hollywood
Jim Parsons – Hollywood
Holland Taylor – Hollywood

Take away the previously nominated franchises + anthologies, writing and/or directing nominees and live musicals and your left with the the following 11.

Regina King – Seven Seconds
Jessica Biel – The Sinner
John Legizumo – Waco
Joey King – The Act
Patricia Arquette – The Act
Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True
Jeremy Pope – Hollywood
Octavia Spencer – Self Made
Dylan McDermott – Hollywood
Jim Parsons – Hollywood
Holland Taylor – Hollywood

Removing Hollywood from the aforementioned 11 since it was Netflix’s most nominated Limited show of 2020 and the only non-Watchmen program to hit double digit nominees.

Which leaves you with these seven

Regina King – Seven Seconds
Jessica Biel – The Sinner
John Legizumo – Waco
Joey King – The Act
Patricia Arquette – The Act
Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True
Octavia Spencer – Self Made

What do all of these have in common? All were acting showcases for their nominees; 5/7 were in lead; 5/6 were sole nominees (counting The Act as one); 6/7 were spring premieres and 3/7 were eventual winners.

So what do these stats mean for the current race?

• Garner, McGregor, Rahim, Winslet et al being potential sole nominees would be more common that not.
• Large tech players like The Good Lord Bird, The Underground Railroad & WandaVision can still get multiple acting nominees despite missing Series.
• Euphoria, Fargo and Genius could still potentially get actors nominated on name alone.
• If you’re predicting The Undoing to get more than Grant an Acting nomination, it should also be in Series and/or Directing/Writing as well.
• Garner+Chlumsky (or more) nominations should with come with a Rimes writing nod.
• Whatever your top three Series, can namecheck along supporting nominees over sole nominees.
— • e.g. TQG (Camp, Heller & TBS), IMDY (Essiedu, Reeves & Opia).

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 271 Posts: 21243 View Predictions]

#1204065587

Will Winslet even get nominated? I mean she is a big star, the trailer indicates she might be delivering a strong performance, she’s seems to be angling for a career renaissance à la Kidman and she has the opportunity of being in a very popular show but I just cannot see <i>Mare of Easttown </i>doing well here. Same with The Undoing. I feel like the Television Academy is fatigued by these A list led murder mysteries that don’t add anything new. Look at how <i>Defending Jacob </i>tanked.

braydenfitzsimmons wrote:

• Garner+Chlumsky (or more) nominations should with come with a Rimes writing nod.

Ah this makes me more confident in my Hawes prediction in supporting although I might have to predict Rhimes now in Writing lol because I’m predicting Garner and Chlumsky lol.

braydenfitzsimmons wrote:

— • e.g. TQG (Camp, Heller & TBS), IMDY (Essiedu, Reeves & Opia).

Yep I absolutely agree with this except will Lewis Reeves even be submitted? He was excellent and I know he was TVLine’s performer of the week but he wasn’t even listed as a part of the show’s ensemble win at the Spirits.

Essiedu is someone we need to watch out for. He could maybe even win considering how open that category is if Boyega goes lead.

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")