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Emmys 2021 Movie/Limited Predictions (Part 3)

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    wolfali
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    Yeah I feel like there are only 6 people who stand a chance at getting nominated if Scenes From a Marriage doesn’t get in on time.

    Are the Hamilton actors going to be eligible?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    I think they won’t, somebody gotta stop this Hamilton thing in acting categories
    Is a live performance from years ago.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    wolfali
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    #1204064948

    The absolutely ridiculous thing is that Olly Alexander and Paul Bettany are likely for a nomination at this point whilst their buzzier and more acclaimed female co-leads Lydia West and Elizabeth Olsen are fighting to get in.

    Alexander in a way is understandable getting in whilst West gets snubbed because he’s the principal lead of It’s a Sin but Bettany… I mean at least West can drop down to supporting but yikes if Bettany gets in without Olsen.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    hopelesstar
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    #1204064954

    I think Hamilton will be eligible

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    wolfali
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    I think Hamilton will be eligible

    A tragedy.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204064961

    Are the Hamilton actors going to be eligible?

    Probably, actors from live productions of Spongebob and The Little Mermaid were on the ballot last year and live musicals usually do quiet well if it’s a performer / production that the industry likes (Emma Thompson, Audra McDonald, Jesus Christ)

    I think they won’t, somebody gotta stop this Hamilton thing in acting categories
    Is a live performance from years ago.

    To be fair, a three old performance of the Spongebob musical was submitted to acting categories last year too.

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    Victor
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    To be fair, a three old performance of the Spongebob musical was submitted to acting categories last year too.

    But at least it was for new footage right?
    Hamilton is here since the dawn of times.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    wolfali
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    Ah well at least we have 8 potential contenders if McGregor misses eligibility instead of 6.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1204065058

    But at least it was for new footage right?
    Hamilton is here since the dawn of times.

    Not sure. I don’t think it was new footage since it was the original 2017 Broadway cast.

    Ah well at least we have 8 potential contenders if McGregor misses eligibility instead of 6.

    Alexander; Bettany; Hawke; Grant; Manuel; Odom, Jr. Rahim and who else?

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    wolfali
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    #1204065068

    Alexander; Bettany; Hawke; Grant; Manuel; Odom, Jr. Rahim and who else?

    Oops I miscounted.

    So unless there’s a surprise that’s our clear top 7 (not in that order).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Victor
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    #1204065084

    I want and low-key don’t want to be more competition because of Ethan Hawke.
    WandaVision is enormous right now and of Disney indeed campaigns, then Bettany is probably safer than he is.

    So, less competition more Ethan Hawke for me.

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    wolfali
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    #1204065364

    Weekly update of IMDB tallies and scores for each of the shows that have aired so far. Those that have been out for two weeks or less or are still airing are in bold:

    1. The Queen’s Gambit – 266k votes (+4k votes, no change in ranking)
    2. The Haunting of Bly Manor – 70k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    3. Wandavision – 66k votes (+8k votes, no change in ranking)
    4. The Undoing – 57k votes (no change, no change in ranking)
    5. Your Honour – 19k votes (+1k votes, no change in ranking)

    6. It’s a Sin – 13k votes (+2k votes, up one rank)
    7. Small Axe (TOTAL OF ALL INDIVIDUAL FILMS) – 12k votes (no change in votes, down one rank)
    8. I May Destroy You – 11k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    9. A Teacher – 8k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    10. The Third Day – 7k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)

    11. The Comey Rule – 6k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    12. Stateless – 6k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    13. We Are Who We Are – 5k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    14. The Good Lord Bird – 4k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)
    15. Small Axe (SERIES) – 2k votes (no change in votes, no change in ranking)

    IMDB rating:

    1. It’s a Sin – 8.9 (no change)
    2. The Queen’s Gambit – 8.6 (no change)
    3. WandaVision – 8.3 (+0.1)
    4. I May Destroy You – 8.1 (no change)
    5. Small Axe – 7.9 (no change)

    6. Your Honor – 7.8 (-0.1)
    7. The Good Lord Bird – 7.6 (no change)
    8. Stateless – 7.5 (no change)
    9. The Comey Rule – 7.4 (no change)
    9. The Haunting of Bly Manor – 7.4 (no change)
    9. The Undoing – 7.4 (no change)

    12. We Are Who We Are – 7.1 (no change)
    13. A Teacher – 6.9 (no change)
    14. The Third Day – 6.4 (no change)

    And for those eligible at the guilds/precursors, here is their performance there thus far (only counting shows that are eligible for this Emmy cycle):

    1. The Queen’s Gambit (18) – AACTA (x2), AFI, Art Directors Guild, Critics Choice (x3), Golden Globes (x2), Makeup and Hairstylists Guild (x2), Music in Media (x2), Screen Actors Guild Awards (x2), Society of Composers and Lyricists, Scripter, Writers Guild Awards

    2. I May Destroy You (14) – AACTA, Broadcasting Press Guild (x3), Critics Choice (x2), Gotham, Royal Television Society (x4), Spirits (x2), Screen Actors Guild Awards

    3. The Undoing (11) – AACTA (x2), Critics Choice (x3), Golden Globes (x4), Screen Actors Guild (x2)

    4. Small Axe (10) – Broadcasting Press Guild (x5), Critics Choice (x2), Golden Globes (x2), Spirits

    5. The Good Lord Bird (7) – AFI, Critics Choice (x2), Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Scripter, Writers Guild

    6. Fargo (3) – Art Directors Guild, Critics Choice (x2)

    7. The Comey Rule (2) – Golden Globes (x2)

    8. A Teacher (1) – Spirits

    8. Dirty John (1) – Writers Guild

    8. Your Honour (1) – Golden Globes

    8. We Are Who We Are (1) – Spirits

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    A lot of shows have obviously delayed till April/May but roughly every year there is at least one show that airs around February/March that gets into Series. UnorthodoxLittle Fires EverywhereThe AlienistThe Assassination of Gianni VersaceFeudBig Little LiesThe People vs OJ SimpsonAmerican Crime

    The only year since 2015 in which this hasn’t happened was in 2019 (the year when The Act was really the only limited series that aired during this period and it was a tight battle between <i>When They See Us </i>and Chernobyl). So statistically speaking this bodes well for the three shows airing around February/March (GeniusIt’s a Sin and Wandavision) and their series chances.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    Something interesting stats noticed vis-à-vis the correspondence between Series/Movie nominated programming and actors.

    From the last five ceremonies (119 acting nominees), 28 nominees of those come from non-series nominated series.

    Audra McDonald – Lady Day at Emerson’s Grill and Bar
    Kathy Bates – American Horror Story: Hotel
    Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Hotel
    Felicity Huffman – American Crime (S3)
    Regina King – American Crime (S3)
    Jeff Daniels – The Looming Tower
    Regina King – Seven Seconds
    Jessica Biel – The Sinner
    Edie Falco – Law & Order True Crime: The Mendenez Brothers
    Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Cult
    Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar
    John Legizumo – Waco
    Michael Stuhlberg – The Looming Tower
    Sara Bareilles – Jesus Chris Superstar
    Letitia Wright – Black Mirror: Black Museum
    Mahershala Ali – True Detective (S3)
    Hugh Grant – A Very English Scandal
    Joey King – The Act
    Ben Whishaw – A Very English Scandal
    Patricia Arquette – The Act
    Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True
    Paul Mescal – Normal People
    Jeremy Pope – Hollywood
    Octavia Spencer – Self Made
    Dylan McDermott – Hollywood
    Jim Parsons – Hollywood
    Holland Taylor – Hollywood

    Take away the previously nominated franchises + anthologies, writing and/or directing nominees and live musicals and your left with the the following 11.

    Regina King – Seven Seconds
    Jessica Biel – The Sinner
    John Legizumo – Waco
    Joey King – The Act
    Patricia Arquette – The Act
    Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True
    Jeremy Pope – Hollywood
    Octavia Spencer – Self Made
    Dylan McDermott – Hollywood
    Jim Parsons – Hollywood
    Holland Taylor – Hollywood

    Removing Hollywood from the aforementioned 11 since it was Netflix’s most nominated Limited show of 2020 and the only non-Watchmen program to hit double digit nominees.

    Which leaves you with these seven

    Regina King – Seven Seconds
    Jessica Biel – The Sinner
    John Legizumo – Waco
    Joey King – The Act
    Patricia Arquette – The Act
    Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much Is True
    Octavia Spencer – Self Made

    What do all of these have in common? All were acting showcases for their nominees; 5/7 were in lead; 5/6 were sole nominees (counting The Act as one); 6/7 were spring premieres and 3/7 were eventual winners.

    So what do these stats mean for the current race?

    • Garner, McGregor, Rahim, Winslet et al being potential sole nominees would be more common that not.
    • Large tech players like The Good Lord Bird, The Underground Railroad & WandaVision can still get multiple acting nominees despite missing Series.
    • Euphoria, Fargo and Genius could still potentially get actors nominated on name alone.
    • If you’re predicting The Undoing to get more than Grant an Acting nomination, it should also be in Series and/or Directing/Writing as well.
    • Garner+Chlumsky (or more) nominations should with come with a Rimes writing nod.
    • Whatever your top three Series, can namecheck along supporting nominees over sole nominees.
    — • e.g. TQG (Camp, Heller & TBS), IMDY (Essiedu, Reeves & Opia).

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    wolfali
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    Will Winslet even get nominated? I mean she is a big star, the trailer indicates she might be delivering a strong performance, she’s seems to be angling for a career renaissance à la Kidman and she has the opportunity of being in a very popular show but I just cannot see <i>Mare of Easttown </i>doing well here. Same with The Undoing. I feel like the Television Academy is fatigued by these A list led murder mysteries that don’t add anything new. Look at how <i>Defending Jacob </i>tanked.

    • Garner+Chlumsky (or more) nominations should with come with a Rimes writing nod.

    Ah this makes me more confident in my Hawes prediction in supporting although I might have to predict Rhimes now in Writing lol because I’m predicting Garner and Chlumsky lol.

    — • e.g. TQG (Camp, Heller & TBS), IMDY (Essiedu, Reeves & Opia).

    Yep I absolutely agree with this except will Lewis Reeves even be submitted? He was excellent and I know he was TVLine’s performer of the week but he wasn’t even listed as a part of the show’s ensemble win at the Spirits.

    Essiedu is someone we need to watch out for. He could maybe even win considering how open that category is if Boyega goes lead.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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